Coronavirus Outbreak...

[JimL]

https://townhall.com/columnists/dere...-game-n2568162

He makes a good point. So the question is, how many active are in the US right now?

Actually it would be more. If the virus spreads exponetially then I would think there are more being infected than are recovering. If only there was some kind of test to get a better count. Btw, there are many more deaths than have been counted as well.

[DivineOb]

https://townhall.com/columnists/dere...-game-n2568162

He makes a good point. So the question is, how many active cases are in the US right now?

Today is May 3rd. According to here the total number of USA cases is 1.09M
Since Covid takes up to 30 days to recover from, what was the total on April 3rd? 213K

That gives the massively smaller and not at all scary number of 877K. Given that the red states are predictably starting to explode within a week or so we'll be up to 1M *active* cases.

This is why it's important to not be correct only in technicality but also in spirit ;).

[Mountain Man]

Today is May 3rd. According to here the total number of USA cases is 1.09M
Since Covid takes up to 30 days to recover from, what was the total on April 3rd? 213K

That gives the massively smaller and not at all scary number of 877K. Given that the red states are predictably starting to explode within a week or so we'll be up to 1M *active* cases.

This is why it's important to not be correct only in technicality but also in spirit ;).

So you're just guessing. We don't actually know the number of active cases at any given moment. That would be interesting to find out. I can only find stats for the cumulative total.

[DivineOb]

So you're just guessing. We don't actually know the number of active cases at any given moment. That would be interesting to find out. I can only find stats for the cumulative total.

I gave you my math. You don't like my conclusion then come up with your own answer.

[oxmixmudd]

https://townhall.com/columnists/dere...-game-n2568162

He makes a good point. So the question is, how many active cases are in the US right now?

954,911, with 188,068 recovered and 69,925 dead.

[oxmixmudd]

So you're just guessing. We don't actually know the number of active cases at any given moment. That would be interesting to find out. I can only find stats for the cumulative total.

Yes we do. At least within some reasonable margin of error. There are delays in recording and reporting the data that make any numbers as of some minutes or hours previous to the values reported.

[firstfloor]

Trump confirms that anything he says cannot be believed (because his words are incomprehensible in real time):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...d21_story.html

[Roy]

https://townhall.com/columnists/dere...-game-n2568162

He makes a good point. So the question is, how many active cases are in the US right now?

He's not making a good point. According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ there are 954,887 known active cases in the US right now, not including those who have recovered.

You should have been able to find this out for yourself.

[carpedm9587]

So you're just guessing. We don't actually know the number of active cases at any given moment. That would be interesting to find out. I can only find stats for the cumulative total.

They are pretty clearly listed here, which has been linked to multiple times now. And these numbers are presumed to be low, as are the total current cases and total deaths, because the U.S. has not been consistently implementing trace/test/treat. Testing has largely been confined to the symptomatic requesting medical support. There is evidence that anywhere from 5% to 50% of the general population in the U.S. has been infected, depending on whose study you believe. Many are dying at home without ever having been tested. The numbers reported here (and elsewhere) are limited to the confirmed cases and are not a reflection of how deeply the pandemic has actually penetrated the population.

ETA: A quick bit of math suggest that 16.23% of those tested have tested positive for coronavirus. Because most U.S. testing has been diagnostic, it mostly covers front-line and essential workers and the symptomatic. Presumably, the infection rate is higher in that population than in the general population (for now). That suggests that the general population infection rate is lower than this number. However, that is only a reasoned assumption. The fact is, we don't know because we have not consistently tested because the testing kits and processing capacity have not been ramped up. Apparently, Mr. Trump is too busy checking his polls, railing against Democrats, blaming China, and holding campaign ral...umm... coronavirus briefings.

[Sparko]

Active cases are listed here:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ch1?#countries

USA 955,017 active cases as of May 5

[Mountain Man]

954,911, with 188,068 recovered and 69,925 dead.

Where are getting these numbers? Or are you just guessing, too?

[Mountain Man]

Active cases are listed here:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ch1?#countries

USA 955,017 active cases as of May 5

Okay, that's what I was asking for. Although I'm curious how they're arriving at those numbers. What do they consider an "active case"? Is a case considered "active" for 30-days after someone tests positive regardless of their actual condition and whether they have recovered or not? I also notice that out of the active cases, only around 16,000 US cases are considered "serious" or "critical".

[carpedm9587]

Okay, that's what I was asking for. Although I'm curious how they're arriving at those numbers. What do they consider an "active case"? Is a case considered "active" for 30-days after someone tests positive regardless of their actual condition and whether they have recovered or not? I also notice that out of the active cases, only around 16,000 US cases are considered "serious" or "critical".

If you read the site - you will find they document their sources. Active cases are any of the confirmed infected that have not been classified as "dead" or "recovered."

On most sites, "serious/critical" usually means "requires hospitalization." The rest are, presumably, under doctor's care at home.

ETA: Another resources is from Johns Hopkins. You will find the numbers do not 100% align. Most of the difference seems to trace to differing times of data receipt and site update as well as when they declare a day "ended." JHU apparently uses midnight in their local timezone. Worldometers uses midnight GMT.

[oxmixmudd]

If you read the site - you will find they document their sources. Active cases are any of the confirmed infected that have not been classified as "dead" or "recovered."

On most sites, "serious/critical" usually means "requires hospitalization." The rest are, presumably, under doctor's care at home.

ETA: Another resources is from Johns Hopkins. You will find the numbers do not 100% align. Most of the difference seems to trace to differing times of data receipt and site update as well as when they declare a day "ended." JHU apparently uses midnight in their local timezone. Worldometers uses midnight GMT.

We've posted all this before. Woldometers and JHU have been mentioned here and in the media many times the past month or so. MM just wants to continue to play the 'it's not really as bad as it appears to be' game.

[Mountain Man]

If you read the site - you will find they document their sources. Active cases are any of the confirmed infected that have not been classified as "dead" or "recovered."

Okay, but what's considered "recovered"? How many people have recovered but are still classified as "active" cases?