Polls make me laugh

[Cow Poke]

indeed! Trump cut 10 points off Hillary's lead in Virginia in a week! ONE WEEK! And that's with her running mate the current seated Senator from Virginia. Sit back and watch...

But hold your breath, cause there's still plenty of time for Trump to do or say or tweet something incredibly stupid.

[JimL]

indeed! Trump cut 10 points off Hillary's lead in Virginia in a week! ONE WEEK! And that's with her running mate the current seated Senator from Virginia. Sit back and watch...

According to who, you?

[Bill the Cat]

According to who, you?

According to the polls, Jerry. So either 1) the first poll I cited in the OP was just REALLY off, 2) Trump is in fact coming on like a house of fire, or 3) Polls are stupid and sometimes horribly inaccurate ways to report on an issue.

[Cow Poke]

According to who, you?

LA Times has Trump at +3.

Remember, at the beginning of this, all the "experts" were predicting Trump didn't have a snowball's chance in the hot place. DURN if he didn't end up with the nomination!

[Teallaura]

It's September. I grant, it's getting closer but we're not in the final furlong yet.

[Teallaura]

According to the polls, Jerry. So either 1) the first poll I cited in the OP was just REALLY off, 2) Trump is in fact coming on like a house of fire, or 3) Polls are stupid and sometimes horribly inaccurate ways to report on an issue.

Polls are a stupid way to judge a candidate. They are only momentary snapshots - and can vary wildly. They are useful - but they can be wrong. Just ask 'President' Dewey!

[Cow Poke]

It's September. I grant, it's getting closer but we're not in the final furlong yet.

Not even close.

[Terraceth]

And just like that, 2 separate polls, 1 week later, show Hillary with a 1-2 point lead in Virginia. 10 points in a week?

Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton Hampton University Clinton 43, Trump 41 Clinton +2

Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Emerson Clinton 44, Trump 43, Johnson 11, Stein 3 Clinton +1

No, 10 points in 2-3 weeks. The first poll you mentioned, from Roanoke, was conducted (according to Real Clear Politics) from August 7-17. The Hampton poll was August 24-28 and the Emerson poll was August 30-September 1.

Though with margin of error and confidence interval, just trying to judge something based on just one poll is a bit wrongheaded anyway. This is why averaging a bunch of polls, especially if you can factor in how well the polls were actually done, produces better results.

[Cow Poke]

No, 10 points in 2-3 weeks. The first poll you mentioned, from Roanoke, was conducted (according to Real Clear Politics) from August 7-17. The Hampton poll was August 24-28 and the Emerson poll was August 30-September 1.

Though with margin of error and confidence interval, just trying to judge something based on just one poll is a bit wrongheaded anyway. This is why averaging a bunch of polls, especially if you can factor in how well the polls were actually done, produces better results.

RCP Poll Average has Clinton at +3.9, but still tending down. Still, lots of time remaining, plus 3 debates.

[Bill the Cat]

No, 10 points in 2-3 weeks. The first poll you mentioned, from Roanoke, was conducted (according to Real Clear Politics) from August 7-17. The Hampton poll was August 24-28 and the Emerson poll was August 30-September 1.

Though with margin of error and confidence interval, just trying to judge something based on just one poll is a bit wrongheaded anyway. This is why averaging a bunch of polls, especially if you can factor in how well the polls were actually done, produces better results.

11 days (from the 17th to the 28th) isn't 2-3 weeks.

But, my wonderfully biased paper actually printed this headline...

As the Virginia polls widen, Kaine turns to other swing states



Would love to hear his spin on this recent round of polls...

[JimL]

LA Times has Trump at +3.

Remember, at the beginning of this, all the "experts" were predicting Trump didn't have a snowball's chance in the hot place. DURN if he didn't end up with the nomination!

Right, and I, though not an expert, was one of them, and I still am. But I admit to being wrong in my assessment of the republican primary voters. I didn't think there were enough of them ignorant enough to put Trump into the general. That was probably partly due to the fact of there being so many contenders splitting the vote. The L.A times poll is an extreme outlyer and if you average all polls Hillary is up by 5 or 6 points. Trump is also in danger of losing traditionally red states to Clinton such as Georgia, Missouri, Arizona and if you can believe it even S.Carolina is in play. So of course the majority of republicans are going to vote republican, and traditionally red states are more than likely to remain red, but Trump has to do better than than that, he has to win purple states as well and he is losing in all of them except for in Iowa where its a dead heat.

[Cow Poke]

Right, and I, though not an expert, was one of them, and I still am.

That's commendable! (that's a good thing, Jimmy)

But I admit to being wrong in my assessment of the republican primary voters.

Ah, the good ol' "admission of wrong" followed by the knife in the back.

I didn't think there were enough of them ignorant enough to put Trump into the general. That was probably partly due to the fact of there being so many contenders splitting the vote. The L.A times poll is an extreme outlyer and if you average all polls Hillary is up by 5 or 6 points.

Again, the RCP AVERAGE has Hillary at +3.9 and trending down. (I noticed this morning that the "trending down" arrow is gone, so maybe her descent is leveling off. )

Trump is also in danger of losing traditionally red states to Clinton such as Georgia, Missouri, Arizona and if you can believe it even S.Carolina is in play. So of course the majority of republicans are going to vote republican, and traditionally red states are more than likely to remain red, but Trump has to do better than than that, he has to win purple states as well and he is losing in all of them except for in Iowa where its a dead heat.

It also has to do with turnout - Hillary's people don't seem nearly as excited about her as Trump's people do about him. We shall see.

[Terraceth]

Polls are a stupid way to judge a candidate. They are only momentary snapshots - and can vary wildly. They are useful - but they can be wrong. Just ask 'President' Dewey!

I believe the polls--at least the polls that were actually done--were actually fairly accurate in that election. The problem is that Dewey's margin was so wide for a while that people stopped paying attention to the polls (and there were far fewer polls conducted) and thus Truman's late gains that won him the election were missed by a lot of people. Though there were also some issues with the way polls were conducted back then that have since been corrected.

Interestingly, Dewey actually did come very close to winning the election. He lost Ohio, California, and Illinois by less than 1% and if he had won them, he would have won the entire election (despite losing the popular vote). Kind of funny to think of California as a swing state...

[Cow Poke]

I believe the polls--at least the polls that were actually done--were actually fairly accurate in that election. The problem is that Dewey's margin was so wide for a while that people stopped paying attention to the polls (and there were far fewer polls conducted) and thus Truman's late gains that won him the election were missed by a lot of people. Though there were also some issues with the way polls were conducted back then that have since been corrected.

Interestingly, Dewey actually did come very close to winning the election. He lost Ohio, California, and Illinois by less than 1% and if he had won them, he would have won the entire election (despite losing the popular vote). Kind of funny to think of California as a swing state...

What's really a bummer is when "exit polling" causes a major network to "call" an election for a particular state, like Florida, and the folks in the Western part of Florida hadn't even voted, and give up cause they think it's a lost cause.

[rogue06]

Right, and I, though not an expert, was one of them, and I still am. But I admit to being wrong in my assessment of the republican primary voters. I didn't think there were enough of them ignorant enough to put Trump into the general. That was probably partly due to the fact of there being so many contenders splitting the vote. The L.A times poll is an extreme outlyer and if you average all polls Hillary is up by 5 or 6 points. Trump is also in danger of losing traditionally red states to Clinton such as Georgia, Missouri, Arizona and if you can believe it even S.Carolina is in play. So of course the majority of republicans are going to vote republican, and traditionally red states are more than likely to remain red, but Trump has to do better than than that, he has to win purple states as well and he is losing in all of them except for in Iowa where its a dead heat.

Reuters must be another "extreme outlyer" [sic] then since they have Trump up by 2.