Originally posted by Bill the Cat
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Polls make me laugh
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Originally posted by JimL View PostAccording to who, you?That's what
- She
Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
- Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)
I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
- Stephen R. Donaldson
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Originally posted by JimL View PostAccording to who, you?
Remember, at the beginning of this, all the "experts" were predicting Trump didn't have a snowball's chance in the hot place. DURN if he didn't end up with the nomination!The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.
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It's September. I grant, it's getting closer but we're not in the final furlong yet."He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot
"Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman
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Originally posted by Bill the Cat View PostAccording to the polls, Jerry. So either 1) the first poll I cited in the OP was just REALLY off, 2) Trump is in fact coming on like a house of fire, or 3) Polls are stupid and sometimes horribly inaccurate ways to report on an issue."He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot
"Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman
My Personal Blog
My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)
Quill Sword
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Originally posted by Teallaura View PostIt's September. I grant, it's getting closer but we're not in the final furlong yet.The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.
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Originally posted by Bill the Cat View PostAnd just like that, 2 separate polls, 1 week later, show Hillary with a 1-2 point lead in Virginia. 10 points in a week?
Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton Hampton University Clinton 43, Trump 41 Clinton +2
Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Emerson Clinton 44, Trump 43, Johnson 11, Stein 3 Clinton +1
Though with margin of error and confidence interval, just trying to judge something based on just one poll is a bit wrongheaded anyway. This is why averaging a bunch of polls, especially if you can factor in how well the polls were actually done, produces better results.Last edited by Terraceth; 09-03-2016, 10:33 PM.
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Originally posted by Terraceth View PostNo, 10 points in 2-3 weeks. The first poll you mentioned, from Roanoke, was conducted (according to Real Clear Politics) from August 7-17. The Hampton poll was August 24-28 and the Emerson poll was August 30-September 1.
Though with margin of error and confidence interval, just trying to judge something based on just one poll is a bit wrongheaded anyway. This is why averaging a bunch of polls, especially if you can factor in how well the polls were actually done, produces better results.The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.
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Originally posted by Terraceth View PostNo, 10 points in 2-3 weeks. The first poll you mentioned, from Roanoke, was conducted (according to Real Clear Politics) from August 7-17. The Hampton poll was August 24-28 and the Emerson poll was August 30-September 1.
Though with margin of error and confidence interval, just trying to judge something based on just one poll is a bit wrongheaded anyway. This is why averaging a bunch of polls, especially if you can factor in how well the polls were actually done, produces better results.
But, my wonderfully biased paper actually printed this headline...
As the Virginia polls widen, Kaine turns to other swing states
Would love to hear his spin on this recent round of polls...That's what
- She
Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
- Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)
I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
- Stephen R. Donaldson
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Originally posted by Cow Poke View PostLA Times has Trump at +3.
Remember, at the beginning of this, all the "experts" were predicting Trump didn't have a snowball's chance in the hot place. DURN if he didn't end up with the nomination!
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Originally posted by JimL View PostRight, and I, though not an expert, was one of them, and I still am.
But I admit to being wrong in my assessment of the republican primary voters.
I didn't think there were enough of them ignorant enough to put Trump into the general. That was probably partly due to the fact of there being so many contenders splitting the vote. The L.A times poll is an extreme outlyer and if you average all polls Hillary is up by 5 or 6 points.
Trump is also in danger of losing traditionally red states to Clinton such as Georgia, Missouri, Arizona and if you can believe it even S.Carolina is in play. So of course the majority of republicans are going to vote republican, and traditionally red states are more than likely to remain red, but Trump has to do better than than that, he has to win purple states as well and he is losing in all of them except for in Iowa where its a dead heat.The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.
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Originally posted by Teallaura View PostPolls are a stupid way to judge a candidate. They are only momentary snapshots - and can vary wildly. They are useful - but they can be wrong. Just ask 'President' Dewey!
Interestingly, Dewey actually did come very close to winning the election. He lost Ohio, California, and Illinois by less than 1% and if he had won them, he would have won the entire election (despite losing the popular vote). Kind of funny to think of California as a swing state...
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Originally posted by Terraceth View PostI believe the polls--at least the polls that were actually done--were actually fairly accurate in that election. The problem is that Dewey's margin was so wide for a while that people stopped paying attention to the polls (and there were far fewer polls conducted) and thus Truman's late gains that won him the election were missed by a lot of people. Though there were also some issues with the way polls were conducted back then that have since been corrected.
Interestingly, Dewey actually did come very close to winning the election. He lost Ohio, California, and Illinois by less than 1% and if he had won them, he would have won the entire election (despite losing the popular vote). Kind of funny to think of California as a swing state...The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.
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Originally posted by JimL View PostRight, and I, though not an expert, was one of them, and I still am. But I admit to being wrong in my assessment of the republican primary voters. I didn't think there were enough of them ignorant enough to put Trump into the general. That was probably partly due to the fact of there being so many contenders splitting the vote. The L.A times poll is an extreme outlyer and if you average all polls Hillary is up by 5 or 6 points. Trump is also in danger of losing traditionally red states to Clinton such as Georgia, Missouri, Arizona and if you can believe it even S.Carolina is in play. So of course the majority of republicans are going to vote republican, and traditionally red states are more than likely to remain red, but Trump has to do better than than that, he has to win purple states as well and he is losing in all of them except for in Iowa where its a dead heat.
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