Polls make me laugh

[Bill the Cat]

After showing the Ohio poll nonsense from the other day, I've decided to not trust anyone's say on the poll numbers any longer...

So, Roanoke College published a poll for my home state of Virginia and said Hillary has opened up a "big lead" on Trump, yet when we look at the actual data, we see this:

72. And would you describe your political party affiliation as Democrat, Republican, Independent, some other party or no affiliation?
Democrat 39%
Republican 32%
Independent 21%
Other 8%
Refused 0%

72. a. [IF INDEPENDENT, OTHER OR REFUSED] As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic party or toward the Republican party? [RESULTS ARE COMBINED WITH THOSE IN Q. 39]
Democrat 51%
Republican 39%
Neither/Refused 10%


So, when you stack the deck with more Democrats, and even the Independents you interview are a majority Democrat, it stands to reason that the Democrat candidate will be in the lead... Virginia is not a majority liberal state. It's pretty even right now, so the numbers should represent the actual make-up of the state. These don't.

[Starlight]

All the polls are false. They're just lying to you to hide Trump's huge lead. It's all good.

[Leonhard]

[Sparko]

Politicians use polls to try to change minds, not to show what people are actually thinking. Psychology: people want to go with the flow, to be part of the crowd. So if they think most people are against Trump, then those people must know what they are doing, so the viewers of the poll think, "I will join these smart people and be against Trump, too! "

Lemmings.

[One Bad Pig]

This is known as pollaganda.

[Bill the Cat]

All the polls are false. They're just lying to you to hide Trump's huge lead. It's all good.

Ignore the actual data when it's presented. Classic Starfruit...

[demi-conservative]

Ignore the actual data when it's presented. Classic Starfruit...

Libs often don't do well with reality!

[Leonhard]

Ignore the actual data when it's presented. Classic Starfruit...

I've been trying to find a list of polls where most of them show Trump is leading. I've yet to find even one from recent where he does.

[Starlight]

I've been trying to find a list of polls where most of them show Trump is leading. I've yet to find even one from recent where he does.

You need to dig into the data, and alter the math and unskew the polls. Romney has people who can help you with that.*


* Backstory for those not familiar with Romney's campaign. In 2012 when Mitt Romney ran as the Republican nominee, his people became convinced that polls showing Obama beating him were wrong, and that you needed to 'unskew' them to account for various alleged things that the polls themselves weren't accounting for. So the campaign internally produced 'unskewed' poll after poll showing Romney winning, and they went into election day with an absolute conviction that Romney was going to win because their 'unskewed' polls showed it convincingly. So when Obama won like all the normal polls predicted, Romney and his people were in shock and just couldn't believe it. Karl Rove had a famous on-screen meltdown as the results came in. Romney took a long time before giving his concession speech because it had not been pre-written due to his team being so sure of his imminent victory. Hence Bill the Cat's unskewing of polls for us is nostalgic.

[JimL]

After showing the Ohio poll nonsense from the other day, I've decided to not trust anyone's say on the poll numbers any longer...

So, Roanoke College published a poll for my home state of Virginia and said Hillary has opened up a "big lead" on Trump, yet when we look at the actual data, we see this:

72. And would you describe your political party affiliation as Democrat, Republican, Independent, some other party or no affiliation?
Democrat 39%
Republican 32%
Independent 21%
Other 8%
Refused 0%

72. a. [IF INDEPENDENT, OTHER OR REFUSED] As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic party or toward the Republican party? [RESULTS ARE COMBINED WITH THOSE IN Q. 39]
Democrat 51%
Republican 39%
Neither/Refused 10%


So, when you stack the deck with more Democrats, and even the Independents you interview are a majority Democrat, it stands to reason that the Democrat candidate will be in the lead... Virginia is not a majority liberal state. It's pretty even right now, so the numbers should represent the actual make-up of the state. These don't.

I think that you really mean is that the polls are making you .

[demi-conservative]

You need to dig into the data, and alter the math and unskew the polls. Romney has people who can help you with that.*

On other hand, all those Brexit polls should have been unskewed!!

[Bill the Cat]

I think that you really mean is that the polls are making you .

Yet another clod who can't do basic math...

[Bill the Cat]

You need to dig into the data, and alter the math and unskew the polls. Romney has people who can help you with that.*


* Backstory for those not familiar with Romney's campaign. In 2012 when Mitt Romney ran as the Republican nominee, his people became convinced that polls showing Obama beating him were wrong, and that you needed to 'unskew' them to account for various alleged things that the polls themselves weren't accounting for. So the campaign internally produced 'unskewed' poll after poll showing Romney winning, and they went into election day with an absolute conviction that Romney was going to win because their 'unskewed' polls showed it convincingly. So when Obama won like all the normal polls predicted, Romney and his people were in shock and just couldn't believe it. Karl Rove had a famous on-screen meltdown as the results came in. Romney took a long time before giving his concession speech because it had not been pre-written due to his team being so sure of his imminent victory. Hence Bill the Cat's unskewing of polls for us is nostalgic.

Huge difference here Star. We are talking about one single state that is basically 50/50 right now. It's winner take all, unlike the popular vote for the country. A proper and accurate representation would have a 50/50 split between liberal and conservative. This poll did not accurately represent the demographics of my state.

[Starlight]

On other hand, all those Brexit polls should have been unskewed!!

The Brexit polls were predicting it was close and could go either way.

Whereas currently the question seems to be "will Clinton win more than 40 states or not?" I think she will, and that it will be a blowout of the sort the US hasn't seen since Reagan.

[Terraceth]

Huge difference here Star. We are talking about one single state that is basically 50/50 right now. It's winner take all, unlike the popular vote for the country. A proper and accurate representation would have a 50/50 split between liberal and conservative. This poll did not accurately represent the demographics of my state.

What is the reason for your presumption of the 50/50 split, particularly as this appears to be the entire basis for your disagreement?