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Well tomorrow it begins. The first primary of 2020.
In Dem primaries the results of Iowa have historically been reasonably predictive of who becomes the Dem nominee (not so much in the Republican primary).
Averaging the two polls out today for Iowa gives:
Sanders 28, Biden 18, Warren 18, Buttigieg 15, Klobuchar 10, others <=5% each.
The Iowa rules are that at any given caucus location, if the votes for a candidate are less than 15% of the votes in the room, the people caucusing for that candidate are directed to re-vote for one of the more popular candidates. I think the votes from all the precincts are then summed statewide (there's been some changes from last time about exactly how this works). Obviously this 15% threshold can be very detrimental to any candidates near or below that margin statewide depending on how their support is distributed between caucus locations.
So, estimating what the actual outcome of the caucuses will be, using the above polling data and given the 15% cut-off hurting candidates near 15% and zeroing out the <=5% candidates, and then scaling so the votes total 100% among the remaining candidates... gives an outcome something like Sanders 46%, Biden 20%, Warren 20%, Buttigieg 11%, Klobuchar 3%.
Predictions? Thoughts?
Personally I predict that Sanders will do a bit better (~5%) than he's expected to do from the polling, and Biden will do a bit worse. Though because polling doesn't directly translate to vote tallies, it's not easy to specify exactly what that will mean numerically. I guess basically I'm saying my predictions are:
1. Bernie will win Iowa
2. No one else will be close to Bernie
3. It will probably be close with regard to whether he wins a plurality or wins outright (i.e. his final statewide total will be ~50%)
4. The MSM stories after Iowa will be that Bernie did better than expected, and that Biden did worse than expected. There may also be anger with 'the system' with regard to the fact that Biden/Warren/Buttigieg were 'non-viable' at some caucus locations because they didn't reach 15% there.
In Dem primaries the results of Iowa have historically been reasonably predictive of who becomes the Dem nominee (not so much in the Republican primary).
Averaging the two polls out today for Iowa gives:
Sanders 28, Biden 18, Warren 18, Buttigieg 15, Klobuchar 10, others <=5% each.
The Iowa rules are that at any given caucus location, if the votes for a candidate are less than 15% of the votes in the room, the people caucusing for that candidate are directed to re-vote for one of the more popular candidates. I think the votes from all the precincts are then summed statewide (there's been some changes from last time about exactly how this works). Obviously this 15% threshold can be very detrimental to any candidates near or below that margin statewide depending on how their support is distributed between caucus locations.
So, estimating what the actual outcome of the caucuses will be, using the above polling data and given the 15% cut-off hurting candidates near 15% and zeroing out the <=5% candidates, and then scaling so the votes total 100% among the remaining candidates... gives an outcome something like Sanders 46%, Biden 20%, Warren 20%, Buttigieg 11%, Klobuchar 3%.
Predictions? Thoughts?
Personally I predict that Sanders will do a bit better (~5%) than he's expected to do from the polling, and Biden will do a bit worse. Though because polling doesn't directly translate to vote tallies, it's not easy to specify exactly what that will mean numerically. I guess basically I'm saying my predictions are:
1. Bernie will win Iowa
2. No one else will be close to Bernie
3. It will probably be close with regard to whether he wins a plurality or wins outright (i.e. his final statewide total will be ~50%)
4. The MSM stories after Iowa will be that Bernie did better than expected, and that Biden did worse than expected. There may also be anger with 'the system' with regard to the fact that Biden/Warren/Buttigieg were 'non-viable' at some caucus locations because they didn't reach 15% there.
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