Blue Wave?

[Cow Poke]

WaPo: Even Dems bailing on blue-wave belief?

[rogue06]

WaPo: Even Dems bailing on blue-wave belief?

Even if they only pick up one single seat in Congress I think it is a safe bet that it'll be portrayed by the MSM as a major victory and a complete and utter repudiation of Trump. Much like Comey's verdict on Hillary, it's already written out well before the facts are even looked at (or in this case, the voters have voted).

[Mountain Man]

Has anybody else noticed that the term "Blue Wave" has become about as scarce on MSM as the term "Russian Collusion"?

Yeah, instead liberals have been complaining about how Trump might try to capitalize on his foreign policy victories. I mean, how dare he!

[Cow Poke]

Yeah, instead liberals have been complaining about how Trump might try to capitalize on his foreign policy victories. I mean, how dare he!

I actually saw Chuck Schumer congratulate Trump on moving the Embassy to Jerusalem! I was

[KingsGambit]

I actually saw Chuck Schumer congratulate Trump on moving the Embassy to Jerusalem! I was

I'm not. He's Jewish.

[Cow Poke]

I'm not. He's Jewish.

Yeah, I know, but it surprised me that that trumped his hatred for Trump, and his congratulations seemed pretty straight forward.

[Cow Poke]

Big Blue Bellyflop: Dem Lead in Generic Ballot Hits New Low

For the very first time since April of 2017, when Real Clear Politics first started monitoring the average, the Democrat advantage in the generic ballot has dipped below 5 percent, to just 4.7 percent.

Until this week, Democrats enjoyed a steady average of a +5 percent advantage. Of late, that average has climbed as high as +13 percent. But since then, the erosion, in fits and starts, has steadily drifted downward, and now, at least in this election season, it is at a record low.

For the sake of context, in 2014, with a 2.4 percent GOP advantage in this same poll, Republicans picked up only 13 House seats.

During the 2010 mid-terms, with a 9.4 percent GOP advantage, Republicans picked up 63 House seats.

In 2006, with an 11.5 percent Democrat edge, Democrats picked up 31 seats.

This year, Democrats will need to flip 24 seats to retake the House, which is looking a lot less doable when you consider that with a huge 11.5 percent advantage, Democrats were only able to snatch 31 seats.

With just a 4.7 percent advantage, Democrats are likely within range of handing the gavel to Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), but a closer look at the movement of the numbers shows that Democrat energy has been flat, while GOP energy is building.

[rogue06]

Big Blue Bellyflop: Dem Lead in Generic Ballot Hits New Low

For the very first time since April of 2017, when Real Clear Politics first started monitoring the average, the Democrat advantage in the generic ballot has dipped below 5 percent, to just 4.7 percent.

Until this week, Democrats enjoyed a steady average of a +5 percent advantage. Of late, that average has climbed as high as +13 percent. But since then, the erosion, in fits and starts, has steadily drifted downward, and now, at least in this election season, it is at a record low.

For the sake of context, in 2014, with a 2.4 percent GOP advantage in this same poll, Republicans picked up only 13 House seats.

During the 2010 mid-terms, with a 9.4 percent GOP advantage, Republicans picked up 63 House seats.

In 2006, with an 11.5 percent Democrat edge, Democrats picked up 31 seats.

This year, Democrats will need to flip 24 seats to retake the House, which is looking a lot less doable when you consider that with a huge 11.5 percent advantage, Democrats were only able to snatch 31 seats.

With just a 4.7 percent advantage, Democrats are likely within range of handing the gavel to Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), but a closer look at the movement of the numbers shows that Democrat energy has been flat, while GOP energy is building.

The economy, despite a stalled stock market and raising gas prices, continues to visibly improve overall.

North Korea has at least initially agreed to talk about nuclear disarmament.

The whole Russian collusion hoax is not only falling apart but has back-fired tremendously on those behind it.

And now you have folks like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi defending the blood-thirsty ultra-violent MS-13 with the latter talking about their "spark of divinity"

[Mountain Man]

Hard to build momentum when their key campaign platform of impeaching Trump for colluding with Russia is going up in flame.

[rogue06]

According to a new poll commissioned by Reuters, Republicans have now taken a small lead on a generic ballot question. Not all that long ago Democrats enjoyed a +20 point lead and that was a major reason for predictions of a "blue wave." In fact, less than a month ago they still had a 10 point lead.


Still, it's a looooong ways until November.

[Cow Poke]

According to a new poll commissioned by Reuters, Republicans have now taken a small lead on a generic ballot question. Not all that long ago Democrats enjoyed a +20 point lead and that was a major reason for predictions of a "blue wave." In fact, less than a month ago they still had a 10 point lead.


Still, it's a looooong ways until November.

It's the economy, stupid. (I wonder if that's still a thing)

[Cow Poke]

Just keeping an eye on the ebb and flow...


From Blue Wave to Blue Trickle to Blue Gurgle

[Cow Poke]

I wouldn't bet all my money against it.

Speaking of money....

Growth:

[Mountain Man]

Just keeping an eye on the ebb and flow...


From Blue Wave to Blue Trickle to Blue Gurgle

I suspect that early-year lead was based on expectations that Mueller would have Trump firmly on the ropes by now, and that all that would be left was for Democrats to deliver the knockout punch in the face of a thoroughly demoralized Republican electorate. Instead, recent reports of corruption at the highest levels of the previous administration have put Mueller and team Obama on the defensive ("Trump should be happy we were spying on him!" ), and it's Democrat voters who are becoming demoralized.