Blue Wave?

[Cow Poke]

WaPo: Even Dems bailing on blue-wave belief?

For months, Democrats have assumed that history and the currents of popular opinion will carry them to a new House majority, and possibly even control of the Senate. Their main debates have been over whether Nancy Pelosi should become Speaker again, and if they can tamp down impeachment talk long enough to keep from energizing Donald Trump supporters. Now, however, the Washington Post reports that they have belatedly discovered that Republicans are far more energized than first assumed — and that a House majority might not be within reach after all:

[rogue06]

WaPo: Even Dems bailing on blue-wave belief?

For months, Democrats have assumed that history and the currents of popular opinion will carry them to a new House majority, and possibly even control of the Senate. Their main debates have been over whether Nancy Pelosi should become Speaker again, and if they can tamp down impeachment talk long enough to keep from energizing Donald Trump supporters. Now, however, the Washington Post reports that they have belatedly discovered that Republicans are far more energized than first assumed — and that a House majority might not be within reach after all:

Even if they only pick up one single seat in Congress I think it is a safe bet that it'll be portrayed by the MSM as a major victory and a complete and utter repudiation of Trump. Much like Comey's verdict on Hillary, it's already written out well before the facts are even looked at (or in this case, the voters have voted).

[Mountain Man]

Has anybody else noticed that the term "Blue Wave" has become about as scarce on MSM as the term "Russian Collusion"?

Yeah, instead liberals have been complaining about how Trump might try to capitalize on his foreign policy victories. I mean, how dare he!

[Cow Poke]

Yeah, instead liberals have been complaining about how Trump might try to capitalize on his foreign policy victories. I mean, how dare he!

I actually saw Chuck Schumer congratulate Trump on moving the Embassy to Jerusalem! I was

[KingsGambit]

I actually saw Chuck Schumer congratulate Trump on moving the Embassy to Jerusalem! I was

I'm not. He's Jewish.

[Cow Poke]

I'm not. He's Jewish.

Yeah, I know, but it surprised me that that trumped his hatred for Trump, and his congratulations seemed pretty straight forward.

[Cow Poke]

Big Blue Bellyflop: Dem Lead in Generic Ballot Hits New Low

For the very first time since April of 2017, when Real Clear Politics first started monitoring the average, the Democrat advantage in the generic ballot has dipped below 5 percent, to just 4.7 percent.

Until this week, Democrats enjoyed a steady average of a +5 percent advantage. Of late, that average has climbed as high as +13 percent. But since then, the erosion, in fits and starts, has steadily drifted downward, and now, at least in this election season, it is at a record low.

For the sake of context, in 2014, with a 2.4 percent GOP advantage in this same poll, Republicans picked up only 13 House seats.

During the 2010 mid-terms, with a 9.4 percent GOP advantage, Republicans picked up 63 House seats.

In 2006, with an 11.5 percent Democrat edge, Democrats picked up 31 seats.

This year, Democrats will need to flip 24 seats to retake the House, which is looking a lot less doable when you consider that with a huge 11.5 percent advantage, Democrats were only able to snatch 31 seats.

With just a 4.7 percent advantage, Democrats are likely within range of handing the gavel to Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), but a closer look at the movement of the numbers shows that Democrat energy has been flat, while GOP energy is building.

[rogue06]

Big Blue Bellyflop: Dem Lead in Generic Ballot Hits New Low

For the very first time since April of 2017, when Real Clear Politics first started monitoring the average, the Democrat advantage in the generic ballot has dipped below 5 percent, to just 4.7 percent.

Until this week, Democrats enjoyed a steady average of a +5 percent advantage. Of late, that average has climbed as high as +13 percent. But since then, the erosion, in fits and starts, has steadily drifted downward, and now, at least in this election season, it is at a record low.

For the sake of context, in 2014, with a 2.4 percent GOP advantage in this same poll, Republicans picked up only 13 House seats.

During the 2010 mid-terms, with a 9.4 percent GOP advantage, Republicans picked up 63 House seats.

In 2006, with an 11.5 percent Democrat edge, Democrats picked up 31 seats.

This year, Democrats will need to flip 24 seats to retake the House, which is looking a lot less doable when you consider that with a huge 11.5 percent advantage, Democrats were only able to snatch 31 seats.

With just a 4.7 percent advantage, Democrats are likely within range of handing the gavel to Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), but a closer look at the movement of the numbers shows that Democrat energy has been flat, while GOP energy is building.

The economy, despite a stalled stock market and raising gas prices, continues to visibly improve overall.

North Korea has at least initially agreed to talk about nuclear disarmament.

The whole Russian collusion hoax is not only falling apart but has back-fired tremendously on those behind it.

And now you have folks like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi defending the blood-thirsty ultra-violent MS-13 with the latter talking about their "spark of divinity"

[Mountain Man]

Hard to build momentum when their key campaign platform of impeaching Trump for colluding with Russia is going up in flame.

[rogue06]

According to a new poll commissioned by Reuters, Republicans have now taken a small lead on a generic ballot question. Not all that long ago Democrats enjoyed a +20 point lead and that was a major reason for predictions of a "blue wave." In fact, less than a month ago they still had a 10 point lead.


Still, it's a looooong ways until November.

[Cow Poke]

According to a new poll commissioned by Reuters, Republicans have now taken a small lead on a generic ballot question. Not all that long ago Democrats enjoyed a +20 point lead and that was a major reason for predictions of a "blue wave." In fact, less than a month ago they still had a 10 point lead.


Still, it's a looooong ways until November.

It's the economy, stupid. (I wonder if that's still a thing)

[Cow Poke]

Just keeping an eye on the ebb and flow...


From Blue Wave to Blue Trickle to Blue Gurgle

Something funny is happening with the much-hyped “blue wave” on the way to the fall midterms. That wave of Democratic candidates that is supposed to sweep away the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives? The one that the press and pundits have been predicting for months? One would almost think the steady narrative of a blue wave is an attempt at psychological warfare by the mainstream media and the Left in hopes of depressing Republican donors and voters into thinking the outcome is a foregone conclusion.

But that narrative is completely detached from reality. The numbers now tell a different story.

Democrats entered 2018 with a double-digit lead in the congressional generic ballot, upwards of 15 points in some polls. Yet somehow in May, their lead in the RealClearPolitics average has shrunk to just four points. In some generic polls, such as the Reuters survey, the Democrats’ lead has disappeared entirely. In fact, in the most recent Reuters’ poll, Republicans are up more than six points generically.

Democrats right now are in a position mirrored almost exactly in May 2014, when they held a one-to-four-point lead on most generic ballots. Remember what happened? Democrats lost 13 seats.

[Cow Poke]

I wouldn't bet all my money against it.

Speaking of money....

Growth: A new report shows that the median household income has climbed 3% since President Trump took office. It's another sign of a strong economy, and at least one poll shows the public credits Trump for the good news. Should Democrats wave bye to the Blue Wave?

Median household income has been steadily increasing under Trump, rising from $59,471 in January 2017 to $61,483 last month, according to Sentier Research, which tracks income on a monthly basis using census data.

This also means that household income is now higher than it's been in at least 50 years — after adjusting for inflation.

This is a sharp turnaround from the Obama years. Sentier data show that median household income was the same when President Obama left office as when he arrived. Under Obama, household incomes continued to fall steeply for two full years after the recession officially ended, and then took four years to make up that lost ground. Incomes then flatlined again, posting no overall gain between August 2015 and December 2016.

This is just another indication that the economy has notably strengthened under Trump. And polls show that the public's mood has brightened considerably as a result.

[Mountain Man]

Just keeping an eye on the ebb and flow...


From Blue Wave to Blue Trickle to Blue Gurgle

Something funny is happening with the much-hyped “blue wave” on the way to the fall midterms. That wave of Democratic candidates that is supposed to sweep away the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives? The one that the press and pundits have been predicting for months? One would almost think the steady narrative of a blue wave is an attempt at psychological warfare by the mainstream media and the Left in hopes of depressing Republican donors and voters into thinking the outcome is a foregone conclusion.

But that narrative is completely detached from reality. The numbers now tell a different story.

Democrats entered 2018 with a double-digit lead in the congressional generic ballot, upwards of 15 points in some polls. Yet somehow in May, their lead in the RealClearPolitics average has shrunk to just four points. In some generic polls, such as the Reuters survey, the Democrats’ lead has disappeared entirely. In fact, in the most recent Reuters’ poll, Republicans are up more than six points generically.

Democrats right now are in a position mirrored almost exactly in May 2014, when they held a one-to-four-point lead on most generic ballots. Remember what happened? Democrats lost 13 seats.

I suspect that early-year lead was based on expectations that Mueller would have Trump firmly on the ropes by now, and that all that would be left was for Democrats to deliver the knockout punch in the face of a thoroughly demoralized Republican electorate. Instead, recent reports of corruption at the highest levels of the previous administration have put Mueller and team Obama on the defensive ("Trump should be happy we were spying on him!" ), and it's Democrat voters who are becoming demoralized.