The imbalance in casualties

[Starlight]

A key background to understanding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is that Israel always kills more Palestinians than Palestinians kill Israelis. And usually by huge ratios.

The latest death tolls in the current conflict are apparently:
7,028 Palestinians, 1,400 Israelis.
That Palestinian death toll includes 2,913 children. That's over 5x the number of Palestinian deaths as Israeli deaths, and 2 Palestinian children for every Israeli death.

Looking back over the 16 years we see the same huge imbalance in killings, with Palestinians being killed at hugely higher rates than Israelis.

IsraelArabDeaths.PNG

Going back twice that number of years, we see that this imbalance in killings continues.

Deaths in Israel.jpg

According to Israel, in the unexpected by attack Hamas into Israel on 7 October 2023, Hamas killed ~1,400 Israelis, and Israel killed 1,500 of the Hamas attackers in Israel. That is to say, in Hamas' "successful" attack into Israel, Israel still killed more Palestinians than Israelis were killed.

Israel could have ended it there, declaring themselves victorious for killing more of Hamas than Hamas killed of Israelis. They didn't. Since then, Israel has been viciously shelling Gaza for 3 weeks, killing ~5000 more Palestinians, most of them innocent civilians, while meanwhile Israel has suffered no further casualties that I can determine and is under no serious threat.

Some people like to emphasize how the Palestinians "fire rockets" into Israel. Yes, they do. Those rockets are super-ineffective. They have very small payloads which cause minimal damage on impact and the vast majority get shot down. In an entire 10 year period (2004-2014), the Palestinian rockets killed 48 people in total. That is a sufficiently small number (5 per year on average) that it would barely be visible on the graphs above. I have not been able to find any reports of Israeli deaths in this month's conflict from Palestinian rockets. As far as I have been able to find, 100% of Israeli deaths in the current conflict occurred during the 7 October incursion. In short, the Palestinian rockets play no meaningful role in the conflict and are almost completely an irrelevant distraction.

On the other hand, Israel does fire rockets and artillery into Gaza. And those are super-effective. Israel has the best of modern weaponry supplied to them by the US, and they can and do level an apartment building, a church, or a hospital, with a single shot. They have levelled entire blocks.

Over the last 3 weeks, Israel has been using this vastly superior military firepower to kill ~6000 people in Gaza, while taking no casualties itself (as far as I can find) and being at fairly minimal risk.

Not merely did Israel kill more Palestinians on the day of Hama's attack on 7 Oct, but in the 3 weeks since then, has slaughtered 4x more Palestinians while suffering no casualties itself (as far as I can find). And that imbalance in casualties, and military firepower has been typical of this conflict for decades.

Israel doesn't seem to do 'revenge', they just seem to do slaughter. "An eye for an eye" would be understandable revenge, not that I would necessarily endorse that. That would amount to Israel killing 1x the number of Palestinian civilians as Israeli civilians had been killed. Obviously, it's morally justifiable to kill fewer civilians in revenge, because they might want to stop the cycle of violence, be the good guys and get the praise for being moral and merciful.

If we consider "What is a moral number of civilians to kill in response to civilians being killed?" To me, the only moral answers are in the range 0x to 1x. You can turn the other cheek and mourn the dead and be the better people by declining revenge, or you can take an eye-for-an-eye revenge, or you can do something in between. But once you're over 1x civilians killed in revenge, you're past moral retribution, and you've become the bad-guy.

Israel is currently at ~5x and climbing. And looking at those graphs above, they always do this, and have for decades.

In 2018 the Gazans tried doing peaceful protests. Zero Israelis were killed. The Israeli government killed 223 Palestinians in response.

The Palestinians have tried protesting peacefully, they've tried protesting violently, they've tried diplomatic negotiations, they've tried terrorist attacks... and whatever they do, whatever they try, Israel slaughters them in vastly disproportionate numbers every time. That's the background of the current conflict, and that disproportionate slaughter is occurring again currently.

[Diogenes]

The terrorists are not to blame for civilian deaths when they strike from within a civilian population, understood.

[oxmixmudd]

A key background to understanding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is that Israel always kills more Palestinians than Palestinians kill Israelis. And usually by huge ratios.

The latest death tolls in the current conflict are apparently:
7,028 Palestinians, 1,400 Israelis.
That Palestinian death toll includes 2,913 children. That's over 5x the number of Palestinian deaths as Israeli deaths, and 2 Palestinian children for every Israeli death.

Looking back over the 16 years we see the same huge imbalance in killings, with Palestinians being killed at hugely higher rates than Israelis.

IsraelArabDeaths.PNG

Going back twice that number of years, we see that this imbalance in killings continues.

Deaths in Israel.jpg

According to Israel, in the unexpected by attack Hamas into Israel on 7 October 2023, Hamas killed ~1,400 Israelis, and Israel killed 1,500 of the Hamas attackers in Israel. That is to say, in Hamas' "successful" attack into Israel, Israel still killed more Palestinians than Israelis were killed.

Israel could have ended it there, declaring themselves victorious for killing more of Hamas than Hamas killed of Israelis. They didn't. Since then, Israel has been viciously shelling Gaza for 3 weeks, killing ~5000 more Palestinians, most of them innocent civilians, while meanwhile Israel has suffered no further casualties that I can determine and is under no serious threat.

Some people like to emphasize how the Palestinians "fire rockets" into Israel. Yes, they do. Those rockets are super-ineffective. They have very small payloads which cause minimal damage on impact and the vast majority get shot down. In an entire 10 year period (2004-2014), the Palestinian rockets killed 48 people in total. That is a sufficiently small number (5 per year on average) that it would barely be visible on the graphs above. I have not been able to find any reports of Israeli deaths in this month's conflict from Palestinian rockets. As far as I have been able to find, 100% of Israeli deaths in the current conflict occurred during the 7 October incursion. In short, the Palestinian rockets play no meaningful role in the conflict and are almost completely an irrelevant distraction.

On the other hand, Israel does fire rockets and artillery into Gaza. And those are super-effective. Israel has the best of modern weaponry supplied to them by the US, and they can and do level an apartment building, a church, or a hospital, with a single shot. They have levelled entire blocks.

Over the last 3 weeks, Israel has been using this vastly superior military firepower to kill ~6000 people in Gaza, while taking no casualties itself (as far as I can find) and being at fairly minimal risk.

Not merely did Israel kill more Palestinians on the day of Hama's attack on 7 Oct, but in the 3 weeks since then, has slaughtered 4x more Palestinians while suffering no casualties itself (as far as I can find). And that imbalance in casualties, and military firepower has been typical of this conflict for decades.

Israel doesn't seem to do 'revenge', they just seem to do slaughter. "An eye for an eye" would be understandable revenge, not that I would necessarily endorse that. That would amount to Israel killing 1x the number of Palestinian civilians as Israeli civilians had been killed. Obviously, it's morally justifiable to kill fewer civilians in revenge, because they might want to stop the cycle of violence, be the good guys and get the praise for being moral and merciful.

If we consider "What is a moral number of civilians to kill in response to civilians being killed?" To me, the only moral answers are in the range 0x to 1x. You can turn the other cheek and mourn the dead and be the better people by declining revenge, or you can take an eye-for-an-eye revenge, or you can do something in between. But once you're over 1x civilians killed in revenge, you're past moral retribution, and you've become the bad-guy.

Israel is currently at ~5x and climbing. And looking at those graphs above, they always do this, and have for decades.

In 2018 the Gazans tried doing peaceful protests. Zero Israelis were killed. The Israeli government killed 223 Palestinians in response.

The Palestinians have tried protesting peacefully, they've tried protesting violently, they've tried diplomatic negotiations, they've tried terrorist attacks... and whatever they do, whatever they try, Israel slaughters them in vastly disproportionate numbers every time. That's the background of the current conflict, and that disproportionate slaughter is occurring again currently.

Another way to look at this is the cost to innocent lives of terrorism.

the same thing happened in terms of the raw count of casualties with 911. Far more died in the response to 911 than died in the twin towers and tge airplanes. It points to the depravity of terrorism. It only hurts the innocent and the oppressed. It accomplishes nothing except to kill and main the innocent.

[Starlight]

Another way to look at this is the cost to innocent lives of terrorism.

I agree that terrorism costs innocent lives.

But are you implying that if something is deemed to be "terrorism" (who gets to define that?) then the other side gets a moral freebie to slaughter as many innocents as they feel like? That seems to be what's happening here. Seems deeply immoral.

the same thing happened in terms of the raw count of casualties with 911. Far more died in the response to 911 than died in the twin towers and tge airplanes.

Indeed, and that why the world was so morally disgusted by the US. The US took what was initially sympathy for the US suffering a terrible attack, and then well and truly destroyed that sympathy and made themselves the bad guys by their orders-of-magnitude over-the-top response.

It points to the depravity of terrorism. It only hurts the innocent and the oppressed. It accomplishes nothing except to kill and main the innocent.

I generally agree. I would also generally call what Israel is currently doing to the Gazans to be terrorism, and would say Israel has been loosely speaking doing terrorism against the Palestinians for decades. Your logic above would seem to suggest that the Palestinians are entitled to a moral freebie of absolutely any response and killing any number of Israeli civilians.

[eider]

A key background to understanding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is that Israel always kills more Palestinians than Palestinians kill Israelis. And usually by huge ratios.

.................................................. ..................

Israel is currently at ~5x and climbing. And looking at those graphs above, they always do this, and have for decades.

In 2018 the Gazans tried doing peaceful protests. Zero Israelis were killed. The Israeli government killed 223 Palestinians in response.

The Palestinians have tried protesting peacefully, they've tried protesting violently, they've tried diplomatic negotiations, they've tried terrorist attacks... and whatever they do, whatever they try, Israel slaughters them in vastly disproportionate numbers every time. That's the background of the current conflict, and that disproportionate slaughter is occurring again currently.

In the thread 'War in Israel' SeanD shows an article by Israel Times which tells that Israeli border forces reported Hamas preparations before 10/7.
Maybe this is true and Israeli leaders chose to keep all quiet so as to give them an excuse to raze Gaza to ground and maybe even clear Palestinians out of Israel altogether.
I've thought about that from the start of this dreadful situation.

But Worldwide criticism of Israel's inhumanity grows quickly.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/survei...-before-oct-7/

[eider]

I agree that terrorism costs innocent lives.
..................................................
I generally agree. I would also generally call what Israel is currently doing to the Gazans to be terrorism, and would say Israel has been loosely speaking doing terrorism against the Palestinians for decades. ..............................

Yes. In the UK politicians have been very cautious about criticising Israel's actions on the West Bank and in Jerusalem for fear of political suicide. But the tide seems to be turning with recent outrages.

Hamas is a murder filled movement, but the response towards Palestinine refugees? ...Wow!

[Starlight]

In the thread 'War in Israel' SeanD shows an article by Israel Times which tells that Israeli border forces reported Hamas preparations before 10/7.
Maybe this is true and Israeli leaders chose to keep all quiet so as to give them an excuse to raze Gaza to ground and maybe even clear Palestinians out of Israel altogether.
I've thought about that from the start of this dreadful situation.

Maybe. But usually incompetence rather than malevolence tends to be the correct explanation for things like that. It's like Bush being warned prior to 9/11 that al Qaeda was going to attack the US, and his response was to ignore it.

I tend towards assuming that Netanyahu likes the current situation because it paves the way for the genocide he likes to do. He was referencing the bible in his speech today about smiting the Amalekites and driving them from the land. But it seems doubtful he would have engineered the deaths of that many Israelis in order to get this opportunity.

[rogue06]

As yes, the whole B.S. "proportionality" argument raises it's insipid head.

[CivilDiscourse]

Another way to look at this is the cost to innocent lives of terrorism.

the same thing happened in terms of the raw count of casualties with 911. Far more died in the response to 911 than died in the twin towers and tge airplanes. It points to the depravity of terrorism. It only hurts the innocent and the oppressed. It accomplishes nothing except to kill and main the innocent.

It seems like you are trying to "keep score" here. That's not the way the real world works. First of all, it suggests an eye for an eye mentality. It also suggests that you believe that Hamas should get, what, 5 more freebie attacks against Israel just to make up for the numbers?

[Ronson]

Indeed, and that why the world was so morally disgusted by the US.

And again, this will only be relevant when the US want to enter a popularity contest.

The US took what was initially sympathy for the US suffering a terrible attack, and then well and truly destroyed that sympathy and made themselves the bad guys by their orders-of-magnitude over-the-top response.

Not that I disagree, but I am curious as to your specifics.

[Cow Poke]

Another way to look at this is the cost to innocent lives of terrorism.

the same thing happened in terms of the raw count of casualties with 911. Far more died in the response to 911 than died in the twin towers and tge airplanes. It points to the depravity of terrorism. It only hurts the innocent and the oppressed. It accomplishes nothing except to kill and main the innocent.

Still parsing this, but I amen'd it because I think we're in agreement. I think you are saying that it's actually terrorism that is responsible for all of the innocent deaths. No?

[Cow Poke]

I agree that terrorism costs innocent lives.

But are you implying that if something is deemed to be "terrorism" (who gets to define that?)....

What sane reasonable person would deny that what Hamas did on October 7th, the last day of Sukkot, was the very worst kind of terrorism?

[Cow Poke]

It seems like you are trying to "keep score" here. That's not the way the real world works. First of all, it suggests an eye for an eye mentality. It also suggests that you believe that Hamas should get, what, 5 more freebie attacks against Israel just to make up for the numbers?

I may be wrong, but I don't think that's what he's saying at all.... I think he's just making the point that terrorism doesn't work - all it does is make far more people dead.

[Mountain Man]

Israel's Iron Dome defense system has a lot to do with why Muslims over the past decade have not had more success killing Israeli civilians.

[Cow Poke]

Israel's Iron Dome defense system has a lot to do with why Muslims over the past decade have not had more success killing Israeli civilians.

Well, that, as well as the fact that Israelis are encouraged (required) by their government to have safe rooms, and bomb shelters are available for them. When we were last in Israel, one of our hosts showed us how his family does a "hunker down" in less than 90 seconds, not only going into their safe room, but sealing it against gas. It's a drill they practice at least a couple times a year.