Originally posted by oxmixmudd
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostIf you look through this thread, you'll find my tracking of and predictions about the progression of this virus are spot on. The fact you keep trying to focus on ancillary topics and new paranoid theories doen't change that fact.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostI know the feeling of posting calculations and scientific links while not getting responses on those. Then the topic comes up again and I don't have the links handy enough to just copy and paste here. But whenever I have done the calculations, the panic news never pans out to real deaths. If you can repost the data for places like California or Texas which shows the covid deaths to the previous year flu/influenza deaths, we can look at that. Remember that context is key here. Remember also that the number of deaths due to the "solution" to coronavirus also has to be examined so that we see if the solution is better than having an open society.
In comparison with the flu: it is more infectious (R0 is higher), it is more deadly (at least 7 to 10x that of the flu), its consequences to patients that recover are worse and more varied (blood clotting malfunctions, brain damage, lung damage, other major organ damage to name a few), we don't have a vaccine, we don't have good therapeutics, and it is a danger year round.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostI've tried to point out what you are doing wrong in terms of your 'calculations', but you are not listening. If you are actually understanding what the statistics mean and how they are calculated, you will see that we have had over 130,000 covid 19 deaths in just a few months as compared to under 60,000 for the entire flu season. You would also understand that the mitigation's that are in place if they were in place for the flu would have cut flu deaths significantly. IOW, without those mitigations, COVID-19 deaths would have been much, much higher than that 130,000 - and indeed they WILL be much higher than that 130,000 before we have been 1 year in its presence. Indeed, we are looking at over 200,000 deaths by November - assuming we quiet the current surge -, and that not even 9 months from when it entered a community transmission stage. Finally, you would also understand that this is a novel virus, not a ubiquitous one like the flu. Which means it has not yet reached every corner of the nation as the flu does on any given flu season.
In comparison with the flu: it is more infectious (R0 is higher), it is more deadly (at least 7 to 10x that of the flu), its consequences to patients that recover are worse and more varied (blood clotting malfunctions, brain damage, lung damage, other major organ damage to name a few), we don't have a vaccine, we don't have good therapeutics, and it is a danger year round.
It is only a theory that mitigation changed anything. There are only a few places where the virus was especially viral -- NYC, NJ and DC, I think. I have shown how there were no changes over time in Dallas County. There are nations that did not lockdown. Taiwan had only 7 deaths but they are super dense living situations.
The treatments for coronavirus (best applied earlier) have been proven successful. So I'm not sure how you maintain your unjustified fears.
There is no reason to think that a vaccine is needed or that one is possible. There is no reason to think that one made in haste will be safe. Worse yet, one company is proposing an RNA-altering vaccine -- which definitely needs about a 100 years of testing before we can think it to be safe.
In comparison with the flu: it is more infectious (R0 is higher), it is more deadly (at least 7 to 10x that of the flu), its consequences to patients that recover are worse and more varied (blood clotting malfunctions, brain damage, lung damage, other major organ damage to name a few), we don't have a vaccine, we don't have good therapeutics, and it is a danger year round.Last edited by mikewhitney; 07-10-2020, 03:40 PM.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostEven 130,000 covid-suspected, covid-related, and covid-faked deaths is not a pandemic level, even if the death counts were really covid-19. If you count the deaths across multiple flu seasons, then you deviate from the normal statistics and then have to recalculate flu/influenza statistics to match the covid-19 off-centered "season."
It is only a theory that mitigation changed anything. There are only a few places where the virus was especially viral -- NYC, NJ and DC, I think. I have shown how there were no changes over time in Dallas County. There are nations that did not lockdown. Taiwan had only 7 deaths but they are super dense living situations.
The treatments for coronavirus (best applied earlier) have been proven successful. So I'm not sure how you maintain your unjustified fears.
There is no reason to think that a vaccine is needed or that one is possible. There is no reason to think that one made in haste will be safe. Worse yet, one company is proposing an RNA-altering vaccine -- which definitely needs about a 100 years of testing before we can think it to be safe.
you just gave numbers showing that it was twice as deadly as regular flu season and now you say it is 10 times more deadly. And again, the solution to avoid brain and lung damage is to get treatment quickly if you have signs of flu happening. The doctor should be able to prescribe Pulmicort or the Hydocholoroquine/Zinc/Azithromycin treatment. So, fear not anymore. I'm not sure why you are still so scared. God and science have come to help us out of this so-called pandemic.
When and if you can understand how completely confused that statement shows you to be, there is no point in further discussion.
But I will help you out a bit.
1) A bad flu season is 60,000 plus. I compared covid to the worst of flu seasons.
2) The flu infects in a given season around 26,000,000 people. Note that is about 9x the number of people known to have been infected by covid-19 in the US (3,100,000+). 4.5x the number assuming 50% fully asymptomatic.
3) multiply 2x4.5 and 2x9 and note that 10 is between them, but very much closer to the best case scenario.Last edited by oxmixmudd; 07-10-2020, 04:38 PM.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostConsider your interpretation of my point in the previous post in bold/italic above.
When and if you can understand how completely confused that statement shows you to be, there is no point in further discussion.
But I will help you out a bit.
1) A bad flu season is 60,000 plus. I compared covid to the worst of flu seasons.
2) The flu infects in a given season around 26,000,000 people. Note that is about 9x the number of people known to have been infected by covid-19 in the US (3,100,000+). 4.5x the number assuming 50% fully asymptomatic.
3) multiply 2x4.5 and 2x9 and note that 10 is between them, but very much closer to the best case scenario.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostI know the feeling of posting calculations and scientific links while not getting responses on those. Then the topic comes up again and I don't have the links handy enough to just copy and paste here. But whenever I have done the calculations, the panic news never pans out to real deaths. If you can repost the data for places like California or Texas which shows the covid deaths to the previous year flu/influenza deaths, we can look at that. Remember that context is key here. Remember also that the number of deaths due to the "solution" to coronavirus also has to be examined so that we see if the solution is better than having an open society.
You can easily google sources and post if there are references to support your arguments. So far you have presented none.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostI you say you see, this just how blind you are. The only reason we have so many "cases" of coronavirus is because this has been tested more than any other virus. Flu virus is typically only tested when someone goes into the hospital -- and not even all the time they come in with flu symptoms. So your numbers mean absolutely nothing.
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View PostThis line of reasoning ;without sources to back up you assertions has a long history. The sources posted in the past due document the fatality rates of the COVID-19 compared yo flu deaths and in the top four pandemics in the 20th and 21st century the COVID-19 pandemic is a clear 2nd behind the 1917-1920 -pandemic.
You can easily google sources and post if there are references to support your arguments. So far you have presented none.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
Hopefully this does need repeating.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostI have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
I have presented the calculations over and over again. If you cannot follow simple calculations, I'm not sure what more can be done to help you.
Hopefully this does need repeating.
Again and again and again it is not the number of cases that are the measure of a pandemic oarticularly in any one location. It is the fatalities, hospitalization.Last edited by shunyadragon; 07-10-2020, 07:42 PM.
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post...as the ENRON book keeper....The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View PostThe above is the reason your responses are meaningless. our calculations make your qualified as the ENRON book keeper.
Again and again and again it is not the number of cases that are the measure of a pandemic oarticularly in any one location. It is the fatalities, hospitalization.
I state all this so people won't be over-burdened in useless obligations and fears. Of course you have the option to believe what you want.Last edited by mikewhitney; 07-11-2020, 12:25 AM.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostIt used to be the number of deaths. That was removed years ago. So WHO was able to declare it as a pandemic on lesser grounds. The little clue to this decreased standard for declaring pandemics should be obvious by the fact that most states have only had small increase of deaths due to covid compared to other years for flu deaths.
I state all this so people won't be over-burdened in useless obligations and fears. Of course you have the option to believe what you want.
Last edited by shunyadragon; 07-11-2020, 07:56 AM.
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