COVID deaths still declining

[Starlight]

There's nothing to be gained or lost by posting those numbers here on tweb.

Are you admitting that no amount of facts would ever convince you you're wrong?

[Mountain Man]

US COVID deaths currently (March 5, 2022) number around 960,000. The seven day average of US COVID deaths is 1,500 (give or take), so total US COVID will likely reach one million around the end of March.

Are those counting actual China flu deaths, or does it include people who died from other causes who happened to have the China flu?

[Starlight]

Are those counting actual China flu deaths, or does it include people who died from other causes who happened to have the China flu?

It's certainly possible to overcount deaths.

I think in New Zealand we're way too generous with the covid death counts - e.g. earlier this week there was a day when 5 people died with covid (which is about the highest it gets here), and looking through the information that was released about the cases it was abundantly clear all 5 had died of other causes and had happened to die with covid and not of covid. This over-generous reporting of covid deaths has been an issue here since the start of the pandemic, when someone was reported as having died of 'covid' over a month after recovering from covid. Yet even with this super-generous interpretation of covid deaths we've still managed the lowest covid death rate in the world due to high vaccination rates.

Looking at excess mortality can provide a useful indicator as to whether countries are over-reporting or under-reporting covid deaths.

For example, New Zealand's excess mortality throughout the pandemic has been negative. Far fewer people have died here than usual in a year. That's primarily because lockdowns kept out both the flu and covid, and so the flu deaths were far fewer than in an average year, hence a negative excess mortality.

However, in the US, excess mortality is clearly way up. US has suffered more than 1m excess deaths during pandemic, CDC finds.

ExcessDeaths.JPG

The excess mortality being higher than the US reported covid deaths makes it look extremely likely that the US is undercounting covid deaths rather than overcounting them. For the US, those peaks in excess mortality in the chart above line up extremely well with peaks in the charts of the US's reported covid death count, strongly indicating that people the US is reporting died of covid would usually not have died in non-covid years.

[Starlight]

Are those counting actual China flu deaths, or does it include people who died from other causes who happened to have the China flu?

Also, given you insist on calling it the China flu, have you ever seriously dealt with the fact that when an enemy country invents a biological weapon, that your response shouldn't be "hey, let's all expose ourselves to it!"?

You can either think it's a nothingburger, or blame China for it. But if you're going to blame China like you seem to, you have to then be an utter lunatic of the highest order of lunacy to think that it's a good idea to let the enemy's biological weapon hit you and insist on taking no precautions for it.

[tabibito]

It's certainly possible to overcount deaths.

I think in New Zealand we're way too generous with the covid death counts - e.g. earlier this week there was a day when 5 people died with covid (which is about the highest it gets here), and looking through the information that was released about the cases it was abundantly clear all 5 had died of other causes and had happened to die with covid and not of covid. This over-generous reporting of covid deaths has been an issue here since the start of the pandemic, when someone was reported as having died of 'covid' over a month after recovering from covid. Yet even with this super-generous interpretation of covid deaths we've still managed the lowest covid death rate in the world due to high vaccination rates.

Any chance that they died of post covid complications? I understand that people who "recovered" from covid in the previous 12 months have a higher than average death rate.

Looking at excess mortality can provide a useful indicator as to whether countries are over-reporting or under-reporting covid deaths.

13 countries showing negative figures for excess mortality in 2020 - 2021. Australia, Israel, New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan included.
That's out of a 116 countries surveyed for excess mortality rates (if I got the count right) - 103 with positive excess mortality rates.

Omicron seems to have pushed the figures into the positive numbers here; only about 1% now, but it is expected to climb to around 10%.

Overall world figures show possibly significant under-reporting. Excess mortality rates are estimated to be between 2 and 4 times greater than the reported deaths from covid.

The US suffered roughly 470,000 excess deaths in 2020, compared to 352,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths

[rogue06]

No, I'm not celebrating. I suppose what I'm saying is that the US is an excellent example of what happens when a significant minority in a population refuses to be vaccinated against disease.

FWIU, the government is talking about redoing how they calculate Covid-caused fatalities -- likely just in time for the mid-terms -- that would result in our statistics aligning much closer to what has been seen in Europe.

[seanD]

Are you admitting that no amount of facts would ever convince you you're wrong?

What facts are you referring to? The fact I caught covid twice without the jab and didn't die, much like the statistics would indicate?

[Mountain Man]

FWIU, the government is talking about redoing how they calculate Covid-caused fatalities -- likely just in time for the mid-terms -- that would result in our statistics aligning much closer to what has been seen in Europe.

The CDC quietly announced some time ago that around 94% of deaths attributed to the China flu in fact had multiple comorbitities, meaning that only 6% of the total actually died from the China flu itself. Fauci the Fraud also admitted at one point that a significant number of people counted as hospitalized for the China flu were actually in the hospital for an unrelated reason (like a broken bone) and happened to test positive while they were there.

So the question is not "Have the China flu numbers been exaggerated by the CDC?" but, rather, "To what extent have the China flu numbers been exaggerated by the CDC?"

[Starlight]

The CDC quietly announced some time ago that around 94% of deaths attributed to the China flu in fact had multiple comorbitities, meaning that only 6% of the total actually died from the China flu itself.

Things like obesity, asthma, smoking, and depression are covid comorbidities.

Having a comorbidity does NOT mean "would have died anyway". I imagine most Americans have multiple Covid comorbidities.

[One Bad Pig]

No, I'm not celebrating. I suppose what I'm saying is that the US is an excellent example of what happens when a significant minority in a population refuses to be vaccinated against disease.

Your assumption is duly noted.

[One Bad Pig]

Things like obesity, asthma, smoking, and depression are covid comorbidities.

Having a comorbidity does NOT mean "would have died anyway". I imagine most Americans have multiple Covid comorbidities.

You imagine most Americans have at least two of the comorbidities on your list? How a-musing.

[Stoic]

You imagine most Americans have at least two of the comorbidities on your list? How a-musing.

Most Americans who died of covid had pneumonia or respiratory failure listed on their death certificates, along with covid. That doesn't mean that they would have had pneumonia or respiratory failure if they hadn't had covid.

As the CDC says, in the case of death certificates that only listed covid as a cause of death, it was likely due to a lack of detail listed about other conditions present at the time of death.

[shunyadragon]

If I understand what you have said -- you agree that the rate of deaths have gone down and your prediction was wrong.

I don't pay attention to Trump's numbers. Are you saying that 1% (or more????) of people who have a positive test of coronavirus are dying now?

I liked what I heard from one doctor's office. His nurses sent in swabs that had not been used -- they all came back positive for coronavirus. The test may be a bit too sensitive-- no?

I think it was the Kenyan leader who sent in samples taken from motor oil and from fruit. The lab results showed these had coronavirus.

I say what the references cited said nothing more and nothing less.

[Gondwanaland]

Most Americans who died of covid had pneumonia or respiratory failure listed on their death certificates, along with covid. That doesn't mean that they would have had pneumonia or respiratory failure if they hadn't had covid.

As the CDC says, in the case of death certificates that only listed covid as a cause of death, it was likely due to a lack of detail listed about other conditions present at the time of death.

The CDC has a history of overcounting deaths, even to diseases that we know a lot about, like the flu.

Just look at the 2017-2018 flu season. The CDC, etc., claimed there were 80,000 flu deaths, with all sorts of headlines about record number of flu deaths. It was only a good year later that they revised that number down. Down to 52,000. A decrease of 35%. That's absolutely massive, and in any other profession being off on your numbers by that large a margin would have you fired, or at least be questioned on your capabilities.

Now add that history of being absurdly off in estimates and add in at least a half a year if not a year of a virus that we knew very little about and had little testing for

[Starlight]

The CDC has a history of overcounting deaths, even to diseases that we know a lot about, like the flu.

Just look at the 2017-2018 flu season. The CDC, etc., claimed there were 80,000 flu deaths, with all sorts of headlines about record number of flu deaths. It was only a good year later that they revised that number down. Down to 52,000. A decrease of 35%. That's absolutely massive, and in any other profession being off on your numbers by that large a margin would have you fired, or at least be questioned on your capabilities.

Now add that history of being absurdly off in estimates and add in at least a half a year if not a year of a virus that we knew very little about and had little testing for

A quick search on the subject shows that the CDC doesn't get formally notified of adult flu deaths, because flu isn't a notifiable disease, so the CDC uses some mathematical models to predict flu deaths based on what data they do have. So if their mathematical estimates weren't great, that's mildly bad, but not relevant to covid where they are formally notified of all the deaths.

Your comments also don't seem to address the fact that the excess deaths counts have the same spikes at the same times as the CDC was reporting covid deaths of a similar magnitude. If just over a million more Americans than usual have died in the last couple of years, and the CDC has received notifications of just under a million covid deaths in the last couple of years, and if the spikes in covid deaths match to spikes in excess deaths, that would seem to indicate that they're getting it right.