COVID deaths still declining

[Whateverman]

Perhaps some of you will recognize your folly and turn from it?

This would be possible only if their folly was the product of a search for truth.

Instead, it's the product of tribalism, which they're committed to.

edit: I'm not criticizing your optimism, tho. Maybe there are a few fence-sitters...

[Reepicheep]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]47247[/ATTACH]

I have an off topic but interesting comment to make about the daily death count. The data clearly shows that there is a seven day cycle to deaths in the United States. Death statistics from Canada, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK show the exact same cycle, with deaths peaking on Wednesday and Thursday of each week.

Initially, I assumed this cycle was artificial and caused by weekend deaths not being reported until later in the week because of lower hospital staffing levels on weekends, but this explanation is incorrect.

The (apparent) real reason? On weekends "young people" who are unknowingly infected with the virus are visiting their older relatives (parents, grandparents). This results in more "old people" being infected on weekends. After a few weeks, there is a corresponding jump in deaths on Thursdays and Fridays among older patients.

The basic time line:

- old people are infected on Saturday and Sunday
- they show symptoms 11 to 12 days later (Weds/Thurs/Fri)
- deaths occur 14 days after symptoms first appear (Weds/Thurs/Fri)

[Reepicheep]

Have the current severe reduction of deaths finally convinced you that we are not having the problem of confirmed cases leading to 1% rates of deaths?

Mikewhitney, you made the above comment on July 7. Interestingly, July 7 corresponds to the exact date when the death count stopped dropping and started rising again.

Using deaths each Tuesday as a measurement gives us:

733 deaths - June 30
1,004 deaths - July 7
952 deaths - July 14
1,185 deaths - July 21
1,330 deaths - July 28

So, Tuesday deaths are up approximately 80% over the past month. All evidence points to the number of deaths continuing to rise, possibly back up to a Tuesday US death count of greater than 2,000 people, as happened during the month of April.

[Whateverman]

I have an off topic but interesting comment to make about the daily death count. The data clearly shows that there is a seven day cycle to deaths in the United States. Death statistics from Canada, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK show the exact same cycle, with deaths peaking on Wednesday and Thursday of each week.

Initially, I assumed this cycle was artificial and caused by weekend deaths not being reported until later in the week because of lower hospital staffing levels on weekends, but this explanation is incorrect.

The (apparent) real reason? On weekends "young people" who are unknowingly infected with the virus are visiting their older relatives (parents, grandparents). This results in more "old people" being infected on weekends. After a few weeks, there is a corresponding jump in deaths on Thursdays and Fridays among older patients.

The basic time line:

- old people are infected on Saturday and Sunday
- they show symptoms 11 to 12 days later (Weds/Thurs/Fri)
- deaths occur 14 days after symptoms first appear (Weds/Thurs/Fri)

Wow, this is sad & creepy & interesting, all at the same time...

[Stoic]

I have an off topic but interesting comment to make about the daily death count. The data clearly shows that there is a seven day cycle to deaths in the United States. Death statistics from Canada, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK show the exact same cycle, with deaths peaking on Wednesday and Thursday of each week.

Initially, I assumed this cycle was artificial and caused by weekend deaths not being reported until later in the week because of lower hospital staffing levels on weekends, but this explanation is incorrect.

The (apparent) real reason? On weekends "young people" who are unknowingly infected with the virus are visiting their older relatives (parents, grandparents). This results in more "old people" being infected on weekends. After a few weeks, there is a corresponding jump in deaths on Thursdays and Fridays among older patients.

The basic time line:

- old people are infected on Saturday and Sunday
- they show symptoms 11 to 12 days later (Weds/Thurs/Fri)
- deaths occur 14 days after symptoms first appear (Weds/Thurs/Fri)

Or... your initial assumption may have been correct:

https://asm.org/Press-Releases/2020/...e-Caused-by-Da

[Reepicheep]

Or... your initial assumption may have been correct:

https://asm.org/Press-Releases/2020/...e-Caused-by-Da

Below is a link to the paper that concluded the cycle is unrelated to reporting abnormalities. Guess we'll have to wait for the scientific process to run its course to determine which theory is correct.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...508v1.full.pdf

[Stoic]

Below is a link to the paper that concluded the cycle is unrelated to reporting abnormalities. Guess we'll have to wait for the scientific process to run its course to determine which theory is correct.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...508v1.full.pdf

From your (early May) link:

From the (July) link I provided above:

That seems pretty conclusive to me.

[Reepicheep]

From your (early May) link:

From the (July) link I provided above:

That seems pretty conclusive to me.

The study I link to examined data from ten different countries. The study you link to examines data from only New York and LA.

[mikewhitney]

Wow. I leave this thread for awhile and the death wish takes over.

[shunyadragon]

Wow. I leave this thread for awhile and the death wish takes over.

No death wish, but yes the casualties from COVID-19 which coldly and indifferently choose to ignore and deny that it is in reality a pandemic.

[mikewhitney]

No death wish, but yes the casualties from COVID-19 which coldly and indifferently choose to ignore and deny that it is in reality a pandemic.

ah. you mean like denying Pulmicort and Hydroxychloroquine.

Enjoy!!!

[shunyadragon]

ah. you mean like denying Pulmicort and Hydroxychloroquine.

Enjoy!!!

No death wish, but yes the casualties from COVID-19 which coldly and indifferently choose to ignore and deny that it is in reality a pandemic.

[mikewhitney]

No death wish, but yes the casualties from COVID-19 which coldly and indifferently choose to ignore and deny that it is in reality a pandemic.

I'm sorry. Bad news. There is a site that lists the covid-19 studies done. Don't go there. You won't like it.
https://c19study.com/

[shunyadragon]

I'm sorry. Bad news. There is a site that lists the covid-19 studies done. Don't go there. You won't like it.
https://c19study.com/

No death wish, but yes the casualties from COVID-19 which coldly and indifferently choose to ignore and deny that it is in reality a pandemic.

[mikewhitney]

No death wish, but yes the casualties from COVID-19 which coldly and indifferently choose to ignore and deny that it is in reality a pandemic.

You keep repeating yourself. However, this time seems to be due to the current website issues.

I'm sorry. Bad news. There is a site that lists the covid-19 studies done. Don't go there. You won't like it.
https://c19study.com/