Getting realistic about the coronavirus death rate

[mikewhitney]

In some countries the number of deaths seems to have dropped way off despite cases remaining the same or increasing. The virus doesn't seem to have mutated in any interesting ways though, so the underlying cause of this effect (if it's real) is unknown (my own wild speculation as to causes would suggest 1. something to do with vitamin d levels increasing due to summer in the northern hemisphere, or 2. widespread exposure to background levels of the virus acting like a vaccine where people's immune systems fight off tiny amounts of the virus and then can handle it okay when they are actually infected by it at a later date). So it's possible that the same drop-off in death rate might occur in the US. I guess we'll see.


No. The death rate for an infectious disease is what percentage of the people who get it die from it. Your numbers would only be right if 100% in the area caught the disease.

I am using regular statistical conventions. In our sample case of Dallas County, fewer people have died from coronavirus than have died from flu over a 90 day period. The coronavirus has not exceeded the flu deaths -- which is what we would have expected if the coronavirus were more dangerous than the flu. If we tested flu virus for those who went to the hospital, we might have 30 to 50 percent deaths by flu -- because it is the sick people who get tested. Please explain how a big leap of deaths (after the worst has passed) will suddenly happen. I have presented the Dallas County details that showed nothing really changing after quarantine started and nothing really changed after quarantines ended.

[oxmixmudd]

In some countries the number of deaths seems to have dropped way off despite cases remaining the same or increasing. The virus doesn't seem to have mutated in any interesting ways though, so the underlying cause of this effect (if it's real) is unknown (my own wild speculation as to causes would suggest 1. something to do with vitamin d levels increasing due to summer in the northern hemisphere, or 2. widespread exposure to background levels of the virus acting like a vaccine where people's immune systems fight off tiny amounts of the virus and then can handle it okay when they are actually infected by it at a later date). So it's possible that the same drop-off in death rate might occur in the US. I guess we'll see.


No. The death rate for an infectious disease is what percentage of the people who get it die from it. Your numbers would only be right if 100% in the area caught the disease.

I've told him the same thing. He's one of those that cant comprehend he could be doing it wrong. But it is good for such a person to hear it from multiple sources.

[shunyadragon]

I thought you were intelligent enough to figure out the numbers. I'm giving you actual numbers so you should not be too confused.

If this were a real pandemic, there would have been a 100 deaths a day in Dallas County. There would be a big increase since Memorial Day.

If you find fault with the actual numbers, please let me know where I have erred. If you are expecting some magical leap of death rates, tell us how this magical leap will happen.

I mistakenly Amened your post, nonetheless Oxmixmudd and Starlight are correct.

[Cow Poke]

I thought you were intelligent enough to figure out the numbers. I'm giving you actual numbers so you should not be too confused.

If this were a real pandemic, there would have been a 100 deaths a day in Dallas County. There would be a big increase since Memorial Day.

If you find fault with the actual numbers, please let me know where I have erred. If you are expecting some magical leap of death rates, tell us how this magical leap will happen.

Again - I was specifically asking about US deaths.....

I think the problem is in the way the math is done.
If I asked "what are my chances from dying in a car crash", you'd compare the number of vehicle crash deaths to the population in general.
You wouldn't try to sort out "only the drivers".
Same with chances of dying in a plane crash. You wouldn't try to figure out how many people have ever been on a plane.

So there are two calculations.

What are my chances of dying of COVID? First, I have to GET Covid ---- then I have to die from it.

If you want a much higher result, then only count those who have contracted Covid, and figure how many of them have died.

AND, in the cite I posted in the other thread, a number of states are now reporting "probably deaths".

[Cow Poke]

OK, so here's a good example of what I'm talking about....

The Truth About What's Going On With Covid Right Now

If you want to understand what's going on with #COVID19 right now, the best place to look is Florida, because they do the best job of anyone in terms of data transparency. Note the different age distributions of cases, hospitalizations, & deaths in their regular report.

[mikewhitney]

I've told him the same thing. He's one of those that cant comprehend he could be doing it wrong. But it is good for such a person to hear it from multiple sources.

If you want numbers scarier than other years, you can use these scary numbers. If you want a realistic assessment of what has happened, you do statistics done in the same fashion CDC reports for each year.

I'm concerned that people are going to ask for protective measures (under government control) to save them from something that is a common death rate. If you are fearful, stay in your house. Lock the doors. Hide under the fort of toilet paper rolls.

[Cow Poke]

If you want numbers scarier than other years, you can use these scary numbers. If you want a realistic assessment of what has happened, you do statistics done in the same fashion CDC reports for each year.

I'm concerned that people are going to ask for protective measures (under government control) to save them from something that is a common death rate. If you are fearful, stay in your house. Lock the doors. Hide under the fort of toilet paper rolls.

I think that's the thing.....

This is such a political football, and one side NEEDS to make it as absolutely scary as possible, while another side wants to minimize it beyond the threat it is.
There is SO MUCH misinformation out there, that it's hard to make an informed decision.

And when the "high numbers" come from people who tend to have a history of "gloom and doom", you're automatically suspicious, and want to reject them out of hand.

[mikewhitney]

I use the nationwide statistics for the flu deaths. I applied this as a comparison to the deaths listed as COVID-19 in Dallas County. I also showed the number of deaths did not vary based on the entrance into quarantine and the exit from it. You have shown a breakdown by age brackets, which generally should be okay to apply to the broad-age calculations I gave.

If you have eaten well, stay healthy, and get plenty of sun, you are safe of this.

I used the Dallas numbers because of the scare article Divine0b shared. I checked the California numbers and they were like flu levels. I probably repeat it enough, but if the numbers don't exceed flu rates in the worst of the situation, this is not the scary thing that it is made out to be. If we should wear masks now, we should have worn them last flu season.

Given one of the Dallas number of deaths as 344
There were
34 deaths in ages 55-64
68 deaths in ages 65-74
90 deaths in ages 75-84

Conservative doctors say we have normal levels of deaths. The media says we are all Typhoid Marys. The problem with the media analysis is that we are blocked from visiting the elderly relatives in nursing homes -- which then makes those elderly ones more depressed in life and more susceptible to death.

[oxmixmudd]

If you want numbers scarier than other years, you can use these scary numbers. If you want a realistic assessment of what has happened, you do statistics done in the same fashion CDC reports for each year.

I'm concerned that people are going to ask for protective measures (under government control) to save them from something that is a common death rate. If you are fearful, stay in your house. Lock the doors. Hide under the fort of toilet paper rolls.

Whatever you are scared of is irrelavent the numbers are the numbers. I gave you the raw data. The count of known cases and the count of deaths. That is not politics, that is the data. At least 5% of the people diagnosed with covid 19 in this country are dead. That means, if you are diagnosed with covid 19, there is a 1 in 20 chance you will be dead less than 2 months later. Your actual risk varies by age as well, and that has been well stressed. Over 65 and it's worse. Under 30 and it's not anywhere near that bad.

But mortality is not the only element. If you are hospitalized, there is a fairly high probability you will suffer permanent lung damage, even if you survive. And there are other strange consequences. Indefinate low grade fevers and fatigue in some cases. Strange blood clotting behavior causing strokes or organ damage in younger victims. More is learned every day.

These are the facts mike. If you are scared by them it is because they are scary facts. Nothing else to blame.

[oxmixmudd]

I think that's the thing.....

This is such a political football, and one side NEEDS to make it as absolutely scary as possible, while another side wants to minimize it beyond the threat it is.
There is SO MUCH misinformation out there, that it's hard to make an informed decision.

And when the "high numbers" come from people who tend to have a history of "gloom and doom", you're automatically suspicious, and want to reject them out of hand.

Its not a political football. It's a medical reality. 2.5 million cases. 125000 deaths. 1 in 20 are dead. That's the story if you are symptomatic enough to be directed to get a test and it comes up positive. The only caveat is that an individual's probability varies with age.

[mikewhitney]

Whatever you are scared of is irrelavent the numbers are the numbers. I gave you the raw data. The count of known cases and the count of deaths. That is not politics, that is the data. At least 5% of the people diagnosed with covid 19 in this country are dead. That means, if you are diagnosed with covid 19, there is a 1 in 20 chance you will be dead less than 2 months later. Your actual risk varies by age as well, and that has been well stressed. Over 65 and it's worse. Under 30 and it's not anywhere near that bad.

But mortality is not the only element. If you are hospitalized, there is a fairly high probability you will suffer permanent lung damage, even if you survive. And there are other strange consequences. Indefinate low grade fevers and fatigue in some cases. Strange blood clotting behavior causing strokes or organ damage in younger victims. More is learned every day.

These are the facts mike. If you are scared by them it is because they are scary facts. Nothing else to blame.

I have been reminding people that the actual numbers of deaths are like a bad flu season. Only the media makes it sound worse (and the governors' mismanagement of everything). The media has severely abused their role in this matter. The covid-19 effects is only scary when you detach it from normal statistics. But we are going around in circles.

[rogue06]

I have been reminding people that the actual numbers of deaths are like a bad flu season.

So far more like double of a really bad flu season.

[Leonhard]

So far more like double of a really bad flu season.

And to be fair you didn't shut down like this during a flue season, so it likely would have been a lot worse if it had been business as usual.

[oxmixmudd]

I have been reminding people that the actual numbers of deaths are like a bad flu season. Only the media makes it sound worse (and the governors' mismanagement of everything). The media has severely abused their role in this matter. The covid-19 effects is only scary when you detach it from normal statistics. But we are going around in circles.

You have been deceiving people then. This is nothing like the normal flu or even a bad flu. It's more like the Spanish flu of the early 20th century. or worse. 128,000 dead in 4 months, not 6, with massive efforts to contain it. Efforts that iff applied to a normal flu season would cut its death toll dramatically. Methods that have produced what may well be 5 fold reduction in deaths would not be an unrealistic estimate at this point based on the trajectory at the time they were out in place.

[Whateverman]

This is nothing like the normal flu or even a bad flu. It's more like the Spanish flu of the early 20th century. or worse. 128,000 dead in 4 months, not 6, with massive efforts to contain it. Efforts that iff applied to a normal flu season would cut its death toll dramatically.

Color added by me.

That point always gets lost whenever some pandemic-denier makes a COVID-19 / flu analogy. If we practiced social distancing, and wore masks and shut down businesses during a normal flu season, the death rate would be drastically lower than it's been historically.

The fact is that many/most of the steps we've taken as a country have reduced the death rate of a virus which is 9 times as infectious and 6 times more-deadly than the flu.