There are a lot of predictions and conjecture as to whether COVID 19 return in the Fall or later. Part of the conjecture is that the virus is sensitive to heat and humidity. This is a maybe, because Singapore relaxed mitigation measures and the virus returned despite the heat and humidity of Singapore. SARS of 2003 did not return. I believe it is a possibility, but not as great as many would predict. It is true H1N1 pandemics and annual returns have host animals that they are endmic to hop back and forth in cycles, and the pandemics did have multiple infection curves. I believe a return is dependent on the CVID 19 finding another host to hop around with, mutate and return to the human host. Maybe cats? There are millions of cats.Another question; How well will COVID 19 mutate and change to adapt to another cycle as H1N1 does?
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Will COVID 19 return?
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COVID will return prior to that, in July, because that's when Giant Microbes releases its Coronavirus plush toy:
covid-sample.jpg
https://www.giantmicrobes.com/us/pro...ronavirus.html
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View PostThere are a lot of predictions and conjecture as to whether COVID 19 return in the Fall or later. Part of the conjecture is that the virus is sensitive to heat and humidity. This is a maybe, because Singapore relaxed mitigation measures and the virus returned despite the heat and humidity of Singapore. SARS of 2003 did not return. I believe it is a possibility, but not as great as many would predict. It is true H1N1 pandemics and annual returns have host animals that they are endmic to hop back and forth in cycles, and the pandemics did have multiple infection curves. I believe a return is dependent on the CVID 19 finding another host to hop around with, mutate and return to the human host. Maybe cats? There are millions of cats.Another question; How well will COVID 19 mutate and change to adapt to another cycle as H1N1 does?
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostYes it will return. That is what Fauci keeps reminding us. Probably 6 months, maybe a year.
Just 'Fauci says' is not a meaningful response.
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Originally posted by Terraceth View PostCOVID will return prior to that, in July, because that's when Giant Microbes releases its Coronavirus plush toy:
[ATTACH=CONFIG]44205[/ATTACH]
https://www.giantmicrobes.com/us/pro...ronavirus.html
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostYes it will return. That is what Fauci keeps reminding us. Probably 6 months, maybe a year.
If the COVID 19 finds an alternate host like, ah . . . cats and can mutate effectively to return. More research like is being done with flus to determine the mutation rate and diversity.
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View PostI do not believe that Fausi presents a complete factual support for his assertion that answers all the questions and possible alternative.
Just 'Fauci says' is not a meaningful response.
The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View PostI do not believe that Fausi presents a complete factual support for his assertion that answers all the questions and possible alternative.
Just 'Fauci says' is not a meaningful response.
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Originally posted by Zara View PostWill return? Who says its going anywhere before the Fall or later? You people are so screwed.
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View PostThere are a lot of predictions and conjecture as to whether COVID 19 return in the Fall or later. Part of the conjecture is that the virus is sensitive to heat and humidity. This is a maybe, because Singapore relaxed mitigation measures and the virus returned despite the heat and humidity of Singapore. SARS of 2003 did not return. I believe it is a possibility, but not as great as many would predict. It is true H1N1 pandemics and annual returns have host animals that they are endmic to hop back and forth in cycles, and the pandemics did have multiple infection curves. I believe a return is dependent on the CVID 19 finding another host to hop around with, mutate and return to the human host. Maybe cats? There are millions of cats.Another question; How well will COVID 19 mutate and change to adapt to another cycle as H1N1 does?The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostYou cannot "return" if you've never left.
We need more data on the mutation rate of COVID 19 mutation rates as well as the related coronaviruses from China, and other regions where the animals originate from the Wuhan market. Mutation rates are one factor that influences whether a virus will return, and if it returns how severe it will be. Flus aggressively mutate and diversify seasonally.Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-25-2020, 02:14 PM.
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View PostThe pattern of zoonotic viruses that have cycles with other hosts do end the infection cycle, but take up other hosts, mutate and diversify, and then return to the host as in flus. The 2003 SARS came and went, and did not return. The COVID 19 is a cousin of the 2003 SARS. The COVID 19 infection in China is following a natural bell curve decreasing in numbers and fatalities.
Originally posted by shunyadragon View PostWe need more data on the mutation rate of COVID 19 mutation rates as well as the related coronaviruses from China, and other regions where the animals originate from the Wuhan market. Mutation rates are one factor that influences whether a virus will return, and if it returns how severe it will be. Flus aggressively mutate and diversify seasonally.Last edited by carpedm9587; 04-25-2020, 02:26 PM.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostIt's not clear to me that we can trust any numbers coming out of China at this point. I'm not even seeing their testing numbers reported on worldometer or JHUM.
More data is most certainly needed, which makes this thread somewhat premature. Especially given that we do not yet have evidence that someone who has had the virus is subsequently immune to it. That assumption underlies all of the plans to re-open the economy and the entire concept of herd immunity in the absence of a vaccine.
These conclusions remain based on the evidence:
COVID 19 is a coronavirus like all zoonotic viruses, and they all follow a bell curve pattern for the first infection to the last. Many are seasonal, but not all. Some return in a cyclic pattern, and some come and go and do not return like the 2003 SARS. The infection bell curves of the earliest countries infected follows a natural path. The later countries infected like in the West are following the same path.
I will stand on my original prediction and the trends are following what I predicted. There will likely be a prolonged infection, but still following the bell curve pattern.Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-25-2020, 04:59 PM.
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