Coronavirus Outbreak...

[rogue06]

Birthday party in Pasadena spreads virus to 18 or more.Two people are in the hospital in intensive care

Cluster of COVID-19 cases traced to coughing woman, lack of masks at Pasadena birthday party

Source:

https://abc7.com/pasadena-covid-coronavirus-cluster/6173576/]

A Pasadena party where a woman without a face mask was coughing and other guests weren't observing social distancing led to at least five COVID-19 cases, officials say.
By Rob Hayes

PASADENA, Calif. (KABC) -- If there's one thing you don't want to do in the middle of a pandemic lockdown, it's throw a big birthday party.

But that's exactly what happened in Pasadena last month. And when a woman infected with coronavirus showed up, and was coughing at the party without a mask, public health officials say the virus took off.

"There was someone who was coughing who attended the party and there were subsequently five laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 and many other people who are ill with COVID symptoms after that," said Dr. Ying-Ying Goh, the city of Pasadena's health officer.

Pasadena public health workers were able to track the spread of the virus back to the party by contact tracing. Officials say guests at the party did not wear face coverings or practice social distancing.

Health officials said the party was attended by "a large number" of extended family members and friends after the coronavirus stay-at-home order was issued.

But what's unknown right now is if any of the five infected partygoers have also spread the infection to others over the past few weeks.

"Everyone is asked to stay at home," Goh said. "They're ordered to stay at home, but we're just asking for the public's cooperation to keep yourself and your family safe."

City officials say no citations were issued in connection with the party.

Elsewhere in Pasadena, the city has reopened golf courses, but the popular Rose Bowl Loop trail remains closed. Libraries are also closed, but some city librarians are helping out during the pandemic by working with the health department as contact tracers.

Free COVID-19 testing is available at the Rose Bowl and ChapCare's Kathryn Barger Health Center. Appointments are required. Register on the city's official website.

© Copyright Original Source

If only they had had a riot rather than a birthday party.

[shunyadragon]

If only they had had a riot rather than a birthday party.

The evidence demonstrated that the demonstrations and riots did not spread the COVID 19 in any significant way, you know out doors. The topic is not the demonstrations and riots. Indoors without social distancing and masks in bars, gums, pubs, churches, conventions and parties is where the coronavirus is mostly spread.

[oxmixmudd]

The evidence demonstrated that the demonstrations and riots did not spread the COVID 19 in any significant way, you know out doors. The topic is not the demonstrations and riots. Indoors without social distancing and masks in bars, gums, pubs, churches, conventions and parties is where the coronavirus is mostly spread.

Yep. The purposed ignorance about masks just wont stop. The gop lieutenant governor of NC is trying to sue the governor over the mandatory mask law and other science based actions he has tried to implement to stem the exponential growth now occurring in the state.

[shunyadragon]

As listed in Worldometers, we (the US) posted the second highest count of new COVID-19 cases in a single day yesterday. As these numbers tend to get refined as some data for a given day is delayed in being reported, it may well end up being the highest 1 day total. We had 38,386 new cases yesterday. 5 of the last 6 days have been over 30,000, and as you might guess, our 7 day average is now above 30,000 for the first times since what was the PEAK in early April. And unlike then, the curve is not rolling to a peak ready to decline, this thing looks to just be getting started.

Sadly, DEATHS look to be bottoming and starting to RISE. As was to be expected.

So take stock of what internet ignorance followed and swallowed by conservatives has brought upon us. What an allegiance to hatred (of liberals) and the rejection of truth and knowledge (science and medicine) as a consequence of that hatred has brought to us. To the US. We are among the WORST in the world in our response. We have over 1/4 of the worlds cases, but 5% of the population. We typically are seen as exceeding the EU in capability, riches, and technological prowess, yet they have made us look like destitute fools when it comes to controlling this thing.

What about the protests? Hard to know how much of this is related to the protests, but they most certainly did not help, but could not be reasonably controlled. On the plus side, they were mostly outside, people mostly wore masks so at least efforts were made even in the midst of such chaos to contain spread - unlike certain very much optional and controllable situations like:

Trump's rallies? Held in some of the hardest hit states (Oklahoma,Arizona) they WILL be (already are really) coronavirus super-spreading hot spots impacting areas already running out of ICU space. The virus does what the virus does. Thousands in a confined, air conditioned (dry air, middle 70 degrees in temp) spaces, close to each other, unmasked WILL create a super-spreader event - just like what happened in the only major source of outbreak in S. Korea - a religious meeting that ignored sound practice wrt containing the virus.

Yes, both the number of cases and deaths are out control in the 'June hump'. I followed the other countries as they also experience this second wave within the pandemic, and timed this wave in June I was hopeful that the normal natural course of viruses that the severity of the infection and the fatality rate drops off towards the end of the natural course of the infection, but I was too optimistic and hopeful. We are in a very hot second wave.

This second wave is common to most countries regardless of the severity in the countries nor the variation in their efforts to reduce the impact of the pandemic. I believe in countries that are not proactive, consistent and aggressive like USA and Brazil increase the cases and fatalities in the second wave.

[Sparko]

The evidence demonstrated that the demonstrations and riots did not spread the COVID 19 in any significant way, you know out doors. The topic is not the demonstrations and riots. Indoors without social distancing and masks in bars, gums, pubs, churches, conventions and parties is where the coronavirus is mostly spread.

How would they even know? The crowds were anonymous. This is just biased news reporting. It makes better drama to blame a birthday party than rioters. Funny how this new surge in cases just happened AFTER all of the rioting and demonstrating started, isn't it?

[rogue06]

The evidence demonstrated that the demonstrations and riots did not spread the COVID 19 in any significant way, you know out doors. The topic is not the demonstrations and riots. Indoors without social distancing and masks in bars, gums, pubs, churches, conventions and parties is where the coronavirus is mostly spread.

Considering that the authorities refused to do any tracking...

In any case, then why are blue state governors still ordering the police to roust those enjoying cookouts, jogging, rowing boats etc?

[shunyadragon]

Considering that the authorities refused to do any tracking...

There is no specific way to track the demonstrations, in part because tracking has not been reliably implemented in the USA, but nonetheless what tracking that has been done demonstrates that by far the majority of infections are traced to indoor gatherings, prisons and extended care facilities as described without masks and social distancing, and then taking the infection home.

Also, though without good tracing . . .

Source: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87148

So Far, So Good: No COVID-19 Spread From Protests...Yet

© Copyright Original Source

In any case, then why are blue state governors still ordering the police to roust those enjoying cookouts, jogging, rowing boats etc?

Assertions without references. Why are the conservative states a blaze with out of control COVID-19?

[Sparko]

There is no specific way to track the demonstrations, in part because tracking has not been reliably implemented in the USA, but nonetheless what tracking that has been done demonstrates that by far the majority of infections are traced to indoor gatherings, prisons and extended care facilities as described without masks and social distancing, and then taking the infection home.

Also, though without good tracing . . .

Source: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87148

So Far, So Good: No COVID-19 Spread From Protests...Yet

© Copyright Original Source

Assertions without references. Why are the conservative states a blaze with out of control COVID-19?

That article assumes all of the protestors live in the city they were protesting in. Protestors are gathering from all over and then could be carrying the disease back to their home state or cities and spreading it there.

[shunyadragon]

That article assumes all of the protestors live in the city they were protesting in. Protestors are gathering from all over and then could be carrying the disease back to their home state or cities and spreading it there.

No it does not assume that it just demonstrates that no increase in cases were found after the demonstrations. Of course, not all are from New York, but that gave great opportunity for outsiders to bring in COVID-19. Many were of course, New Yorkers and there was no increase of cases in New York after the events.

[Sparko]

No it does not assume that it just demonstrates that no increase in cases were found after the demonstrations. Of course, not all are from New York, but that gave great opportunity for outsiders to bring in COVID-19. Many were of course, New Yorkers and there was no increase of cases in New York after the events.

I didn't say New York.

[oxmixmudd]

Considering that the authorities refused to do any tracking...

In any case, then why are blue state governors still ordering the police to roust those enjoying cookouts, jogging, rowing boats etc?

They dont havevto. Most of the protest participants are local to the area protesting. All you have to do is look at were the largest and longest protests were and look to see if there was a noticable increase in cases over the incubation period.

The protests had the potential to be a problem. But unlike Trump rallies or large church services, participants were outside and for the most part wearing masks. They also were, on average, farther apart than they would be in an indoor venue. All those elements help to reduce the total disease spread incidence during the events.

But I'm not convinced some of what we are seeing is not related to protests, it just may not be the dominant factor.

[oxmixmudd]

Current status - out of control. Trump admin via Pence - things are lookin good.

Reality:

Daily Cases US 06262020.jpg

You see that high point to the left. That is when governors bolted from Trump and started trying to institute various levels of social distancing and various stay at home orders. They worked well in the states that did it. But not all states did, so the effect was lacluster. But we did get New York and New Jersey under control But see that peek towering over it to the right. Now that is where we are now, reopening too soon to make Trump happy. To make Trump supporters happy. To appeal the anti-science crowd.


We had the highest number of new cases since this thing began yesterday: 40,184. At a 3% mortality guess what, that's over 1000 people that are going to die. And 1000 more from the day before, and the day before. up till now 3% of diagnosed cases die. what might change that is the change in demographics to those testing positive tending to be a bit younger, less likely to die. But historically, that's 1000 people a day now that Trump is killing because he keeps dragging his feet and encouraging actions that are pure ignorance, pure fantasy.

Current numbers for daily deaths have stopped declining. They have been flattish the last two weeks. With daily new case numbers like these, they will start to creep back up soon.

[mikewhitney]

Current status - out of control. Trump admin via Pence - things are lookin good.

Reality:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]46055[/ATTACH]

You see that high point to the left. That is when governors bolted from Trump and started trying to institute various levels of social distancing and various stay at home orders. They worked well in the states that did it. But not all states did, so the effect was lacluster. But we did get New York and New Jersey under control But see that peek towering over it to the right. Now that is where we are now, reopening too soon to make Trump happy. To make Trump supporters happy. To appeal the anti-science crowd.


We had the highest number of new cases since this thing began yesterday: 40,184. At a 3% mortality guess what, that's over 1000 people that are going to die. And 1000 more from the day before, and the day before. up till now 3% of diagnosed cases die. what might change that is the change in demographics to those testing positive tending to be a bit younger, less likely to die. But historically, that's 1000 people a day now that Trump is killing because he keeps dragging his feet and encouraging actions that are pure ignorance, pure fantasy.

Current numbers for daily deaths have stopped declining. They have been flattish the last two weeks. With daily new case numbers like these, they will start to creep back up soon.

The biggest problem with the counting of cases is that we don't know how many of these people would have tested positive three months ago. All we have are these "big" numbers. They have no indication of how many people will become ill. I showed numbers on Dallas County where a newstory was done about the increased cases. Yet, the deaths in that county were less than flu deaths -- as counted over 90 days of the 6 month season.

Don't go by the case numbers. It is the number of deaths (when counted properly) that are important for determining whether there is a problem or not.

[shunyadragon]

The biggest problem with the counting of cases is that we don't know how many of these people would have tested positive three months ago. All we have are these "big" numbers. They have no indication of how many people will become ill. I showed numbers on Dallas County where a newstory was done about the increased cases. Yet, the deaths in that county were less than flu deaths -- as counted over 90 days of the 6 month season.

Don't go by the case numbers. It is the number of deaths (when counted properly) that are important for determining whether there is a problem or not.

I previously described the problems with accurate case numbers, but they may be used as a rough statistical sampling to compare different countries curves over time. The relationship of severe cases hospitalized and fatalities is a reasonable accurate way to track the natural progress of the COVID-19 pandemic over time in the USA, but in other countries the fatality figures are not accurate. In Brazil you need to double the figures at least, and in China multiply by 1.5.

One prediction that can be made from the pattern of the number of cases over time is that almost all countries had a second peak in the graph occurs after the main peak of the bell curve maximum cases. Based on this I predicted the second peak fir the USA to be in June. The curve of the different countries follow a natural pattern over time that is predictable.

[mikewhitney]

I previously described the problems with accurate case numbers, but they may be used as a rough statistical sampling to compare different countries curves over time. The relationship of severe cases hospitalized and fatalities is a reasonable accurate way to track the natural progress of the COVID-19 pandemic over time in the USA, but in other countries the fatality figures are not accurate. In Brazil you need to double the figures at least, and in China multiply by 1.5.

One prediction that can be made from the pattern of the number of cases over time is that almost all countries had a second peak in the graph occurs after the main peak of the bell curve maximum cases. Based on this I predicted the second peak fir the USA to be in June. The curve of the different countries follow a natural pattern over time that is predictable.

it is still the same calculations that are needed. watch the rate of deaths per million population. Check for about 4% of hospitalized that may end in the ICU. I think you will be able to calculate the numbers okay.