Coronavirus Outbreak...

[firstfloor]

Rachel is on record saying that nothing she says on her show should be regarded as a factual statement.

[Sparko]

Can we borrow yours?

[Starlight]

And if only we would test less, we would have less cases.

Id this sarcasm?

Trump's repeatedly shown an interest in the idea of making the US case numbers look lower by choosing to test less, and Jim's mockingly referring to that.

[oxmixmudd]

And it looks like here we go - Trump's rally gets to happen as we start heading back into unrestrained growth in the US as a whole. Looks to me like the protest impact is starting to kick in, though I suppose it could be just all the irresponsible Republican Governors trying to appease Trump

But daily new cases are up. It's going up pretty fast. And it up above the may 9th point were most of the nation started this reopening fiasco.

US daily 7 day average 060192020.jpg

We are back to a 7 day average of nearly 25,000 new cases per day, and it appears to be on the rise.

And while some republican Trump players are starting to wise up (e.g. Alabama released its cities to set their own mask laws), some like the fellow in Nebraska is holding federal funding over the heads of is cities if they dare enact masking laws. Of course, with few real therapeutics, wearing masks is about the only hope we have of avoiding another shutdown and/or overrunning our hospitals.

But hey, gotta keep the King happy.

In other news, I hope no-one here has older relatives in OK that are Trump fans of a variety that will attend Trump's "Make America Young Again" Rally there on Saturday.

[DivineOb]

To understand the scope of mass murder which is due the Resident it helps to visualize our daily case counts vs the 33% greater population EU.

trump_rapes_children_again.jpg

[oxmixmudd]

To understand the scope of mass murder which is due the Resident it helps to visualize our daily case counts vs the 33% greater population EU.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]45803[/ATTACH]

Average new daily cases heading above 30,000 again. 33,700 saturday. A very bad trend. the consequences of Trumps fantasy world and his supporters acting on it meets reality. The consequences of large public gatherings meets reality. The consequences ofvopeningvtoo soon meets reality.

The virus is a virus. It follows known physical laws and does not care about politics, diesnt listen to conspiracy theories, and could care less who you like or follow. The only people that will be right on this are the ones that follow the data and yield to those physical realities.

Fools who cant be taught will reap the consequences. As will the hundreds of thousands who are the victims of their irresponsible and unconscionable disregard for human life.

[oxmixmudd]

Here is the latest upward trend. Back around May 22 Sparko challenged me with the idea the trend was 'down' following the reopening. And it was, slightly. It had flattened a good bit, but the dominating trends at that time were from states like NY that took drastic action and still had not reopened, swamping what was a rising trend in states that had followed Trump's fantasy and ignored the CDC recommendations on reopening. Now, a month later, states like California and Texas are on the path that will - if not stopped - give New York a challange for supremacy in the 'overwhelmed by Covid-19' category, along with several others. Here is the latest graph of the drastic turn positive. This is new active cases. The curve for daily new deaths lags this trend by 3 to 4 weeks.

That downward bit the fueled Sparko's claim? It is the first slightly downward third of this plot of the trend in the US since May 9 2020.

US daily 7 day average 060212020.PNG

The virus does what the virus does - it follows natural laws and does not care what president Trump thinks or does. It does not care what Fox news says. It does not care how Breitbart lies. The only way NOT to be undone by it is to ignore Donald Trump and the associated conspiracy laden media and social media cheering squads and respect the natural laws it obeys. What should be your source? Science and media outlets that respect Science and data.

[Charles]

Here is the latest upward trend. Back around May 22 Sparko challenged me with the idea the trend was 'down' following the reopening. And it was, slightly. It had flattened a good bit, but the dominating trends at that time were from states like NY that took drastic action and still had not reopened, swamping what was a rising trend in states that had followed Trump's fantasy and ignored the CDC recommendations on reopening. Now, a month later, states like California and Texas are on the path that will - if not stopped - give New York a challange for supremacy in the 'overwhelmed by Covid-19' category, along with several others. Here is the latest graph of the drastic turn positive. This is new active cases. The curve for daily new deaths lags this trend by 3 to 4 weeks.

That downward bit the fueled Sparko's claim? It is the first slightly downward third of this plot of the trend in the US since May 9 2020.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]45859[/ATTACH]

The virus does what the virus does - it follows natural laws and does not care what president Trump thinks or does. It does not care what Fox news says. It does not care how Breitbart lies. The only way NOT to be undone by it is to ignore Donald Trump and the associated conspiracy laden media and social media cheering squads and respect the natural laws it obeys. What should be your source? Science and media outlets that respect Science and data.

And from Trump's rally:

Trump said he told his administration, "slow the testing down, please" reiterating his argument that higher test numbers led to higher case counts.

In fact, in many states seeing spikes in cases, the increase in infections is outpacing the number of new tests. As the country reopens, medical experts say that one of the keys to curbing the spread of COVID-19 is widespread testing so that people who have the disease can self-quarantine to avoid infecting others at workplaces, schools and other public places. At the White House, for example, aides are tested daily to prevent an outbreak.

The president also suggested, without evidence, that COVID-19 is being over-reported. Experts, including members of Trump's own coronavirus task force, have said they believe COVID-19 cases are being under-reported, not over-reported. https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/p...ly/3231998001/

[shunyadragon]

And it looks like here we go - Trump's rally gets to happen as we start heading back into unrestrained growth in the US as a whole. Looks to me like the protest impact is starting to kick in, though I suppose it could be just all the irresponsible Republican Governors trying to appease Trump

But daily new cases are up. It's going up pretty fast. And it up above the may 9th point were most of the nation started this reopening fiasco.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]45797[/ATTACH]

We are back to a 7 day average of nearly 25,000 new cases per day, and it appears to be on the rise.

And while some republican Trump players are starting to wise up (e.g. Alabama released its cities to set their own mask laws), some like the fellow in Nebraska is holding federal funding over the heads of is cities if they dare enact masking laws. Of course, with few real therapeutics, wearing masks is about the only hope we have of avoiding another shutdown and/or overrunning our hospitals.

But hey, gotta keep the King happy.

In other news, I hope no-one here has older relatives in OK that are Trump fans of a variety that will attend Trump's "Make America Young Again" Rally there on Saturday.

The following are my comments of the COVID 19 pandemic.

(1) Both the number of cases and fatalities are not at present accurate. The strong bias on sampling extremely underestimates the total number of cases. The large number of asymptomatic and mild cases are not counted, I believe blacks are very much under counted. The fatalities are also greatly undercounted in many countries. In China multiply by 1.5, and Brazil at least double. The USA figures need to increased with further research. There are many issues with counting deaths like the cultural stigma of reporting deaths from pandemic. Despite all this case and fatality count can be used based on the consistency of the patterns world wide to predict the pattern of the COVID 19 in the different countries.

(2) I made the prediction of the peak period for the USA, and the prediction of the June hump in cases. This is not the possible second wave, but part of the pattern the main curve, an embedded infection curve like in the over all curve in the different countries The likely cause I previously mention is the migration of the virus into low density regions. and added neglect of social-distancing and masks the only present method of reducing the cases, and these methods were inconsistently followed in most countries. No vaccine.

(3) The death count is dropping in relation to the number of cases. I mentioned the possible cause previously. In the course of the virus infection of a population the fatality rates decrease as the natural path of the virus infection drops. Another factor in the developing countries the new treatments for the COVID 19 are reducing the fatality rate.

(4) question of a second wave remains unresolved, but trends in some countries like China that were infected early may be entering a second wave.

(5) I seriously question the all to common claim of defeating or stopping the coronavirus. The actual curves of the cases are overlain by an imaginary curve depicting what they say the COVID 19 infection rate could have been. We do not know the actual natural course without our efforts to reduce impact of COVID 19 pandemic. There was no vaccine, and the maybe successful treatments came very late. Only a few countries were actually proactive, and aggressively consistent

(6) It is not a popular notion, but I believe the Oriental countries have a degree of herd immunity from a history of infection of related viruses to this COVID 19. Vietnam is a more recent example of this. I have provided references that this is the documented regional herd immunity of other viruses.

(7) Herd immunity to a degree will be the natural course of this pandemic. Without effective consistent measures to deal with this coronavirus , and no vaccine the over all pattern of infection worldwide is closer to a natural pattern. If this coronavirus is comparable to flu viruses vaccines, vaccines only reduce the case rate cases and fatalities, and they do not effect the natural course of the virus infection.

[Whateverman]

We do not know the actual natural course without our efforts to reduce impact of COVID 19 pandemic.

Sure, but no one's claiming to know what the pandemic would have looked like without our efforts to slow/stop it.

There are infectious disease experts who have mountains of data upon which to make an educated guess. Disease models have proven to be generally accurate, in terms of infection rates, geography and morphology over time. We shouldn't just dismiss the predictions, because they've literally helped us in our fight against infectious diseases.

I agree with most of what you wrote, so I apologize for jumping on this one sentence - but it stuck out from the crowd...

EDIT: here's a reference, in case you're interested. I bought and read this entire book back when it was first published, in the early nineties. It came out when Ebola and the Hunta Virus were making the nightly news - and it was a SCARY read. People have been predicting a pandemic for which we're unprepared for a number of decades now, and this book nailed the prediction so well that the author recently did a tour of cable news networks, talking about it.

https://www.amazon.com/Coming-Plague.../dp/0140250913

[oxmixmudd]

The following are my comments of the COVID 19 pandemic.

(1) Both the number of cases and fatalities are not at present accurate. The strong bias on sampling extremely underestimates the total number of cases. The large number of asymptomatic and mild cases are not counted, I believe blacks are very much under counted. The fatalities are also greatly undercounted in many countries. In China multiply by 1.5, and Brazil at least double. The USA figures need to increased with further research. There are many issues with counting deaths like the cultural stigma of reporting deaths from pandemic. Despite all this case and fatality count can be used based on the consistency of the patterns world wide to predict the pattern of the COVID 19 in the different countries.

(2) I made the prediction of the peak period for the USA, and the prediction of the June hump in cases. This is not the possible second wave, but part of the pattern the main curve, an embedded infection curve like in the over all curve in the different countries The likely cause I previously mention is the migration of the virus into low density regions. and added neglect of social-distancing and masks the only present method of reducing the cases, and these methods were inconsistently followed in most countries. No vaccine.

(3) The death count is dropping in relation to the number of cases. I mentioned the possible cause previously. In the course of the virus infection of a population the fatality rates decrease as the natural path of the virus infection drops. Another factor in the developing countries the new treatments for the COVID 19 are reducing the fatality rate.

(4) question of a second wave remains unresolved, but trends in some countries like China that were infected early may be entering a second wave.

(5) I seriously question the all to common claim of defeating or stopping the coronavirus. The actual curves of the cases are overlain by an imaginary curve depicting what they say the COVID 19 infection rate could have been. We do not know the actual natural course without our efforts to reduce impact of COVID 19 pandemic. There was no vaccine, and the maybe successful treatments came very late. Only a few countries were actually proactive, and aggressively consistent

(6) It is not a popular notion, but I believe the Oriental countries have a degree of herd immunity from a history of infection of related viruses to this COVID 19. Vietnam is a more recent example of this. I have provided references that this is the documented regional herd immunity of other viruses.

WRT death count, it so far lags active cases by 3 to 4 weeks. So I expect it to begin marching upwards to the extent and time active cases have been rising now in about 2 to 3 weeks. I would expect average daily deaths to remain somewhat constant in the interim paralleling the flat section of the active curve preceding the rise during that period of time - though - to be honest - the correlation of deaths to cases is fuzzy, probably because we have some that succomb early and then others that appear to get well then rebound and die, turning each pulse of active cases into at least two pulses in deaths.

So there is something to be learned in terms of how deaths correlate to the current flattening in active casess and subsequent rise.

There was also news today that the demographics for new infections has shifted to younger persons. If that is so, the percent of deaths to new cases will be lower relative to this rise than the previous as younger persons have a lower mortality.

[shunyadragon]

WRT death count, it so far lags active cases by 3 to 4 weeks. So I expect it to begin marching upwards to the extent and time active cases have been rising now in about 2 to 3 weeks. I would expect average daily deaths to remain somewhat constant in the interim paralleling the flat section of the active curve preceding the rise during that period of time - though - to be honest - the correlation of deaths to cases is fuzzy, probably because we have some that succomb early and then others that appear to get well then rebound and die, turning each pulse of active cases into at least two pulses in deaths.

So there is something to be learned in terms of how deaths correlate to the current flattening in active cases and subsequent rise.

There was also news today that the demographics for new infections has shifted to younger persons. If that is so, the percent of deaths to new cases will be lower relative to this rise than the previous as younger persons have a lower mortality.

I tend to flatten the see saw pattern to make sense of long term trends. I consider the current record of deaths in the USA to be reasonably accurate after the intial confusion of overwhelming casualties. but still see problems with the reporting of cases. I am uncertain to the claim that the young are a larger percentage of the recent cases, because I believe the young were greatly under counted in the past, because of the lack of canvasing testing, and of those that were seriously ill were older, and that population was heavily tested. This is one of the reasons why I only consider the number of cases as a sample of the over all population of the total number of cases that can be used in the calculating trends, and if you add in an estimated population of asymptomatic and mildly infected the count would be closer to the real estimated count, which is mostly represent by the younger cases. As far as the trends I believe the death rate related to the number od cases will on the average decline.

Based on how COVID-19 is transited cleaning hands and contact services is of very limited value. It does keep things very clean and probably reduces the transmission of Coliform bacteria related diseases, but apparently does little to spread COVID 19.

[oxmixmudd]

And the US is now back to the rate of daily cases that we were at when we entered the lock down phase to try to control the pandemic.

The irresponsibility and negligence of the GOP and Donald Trump and those that follow them blindly off the edge of any precipice has now taken the suffering and the pain and the sacrifice that was endured to try to turn this thing around and made it a complete waste.

another 100,000 people at least will die.

That is the cost of the foolish trash garbage that has been littering the pages of this website as they have been repeated and acted on all across this nation.

And there are fools on this website trying to discourage the use of masks, the only real defense we have left.

US daily 7 day average 06242020.PNG

[oxmixmudd]

As listed in Worldometers, we (the US) posted the second highest count of new COVID-19 cases in a single day yesterday. As these numbers tend to get refined as some data for a given day is delayed in being reported, it may well end up being the highest 1 day total. We had 38,386 new cases yesterday. 5 of the last 6 days have been over 30,000, and as you might guess, our 7 day average is now above 30,000 for the first times since what was the PEAK in early April. And unlike then, the curve is not rolling to a peak ready to decline, this thing looks to just be getting started.

Sadly, DEATHS look to be bottoming and starting to RISE. As was to be expected.

So take stock of what internet ignorance followed and swallowed by conservatives has brought upon us. What an allegiance to hatred (of liberals) and the rejection of truth and knowledge (science and medicine) as a consequence of that hatred has brought to us. To the US. We are among the WORST in the world in our response. We have over 1/4 of the worlds cases, but 5% of the population. We typically are seen as exceeding the EU in capability, riches, and technological prowess, yet they have made us look like destitute fools when it comes to controlling this thing.

What about the protests? Hard to know how much of this is related to the protests, but they most certainly did not help, but could not be reasonably controlled. On the plus side, they were mostly outside, people mostly wore masks so at least efforts were made even in the midst of such chaos to contain spread - unlike certain very much optional and controllable situations like:

Trump's rallies? Held in some of the hardest hit states (Oklahoma,Arizona) they WILL be (already are really) coronavirus super-spreading hot spots impacting areas already running out of ICU space. The virus does what the virus does. Thousands in a confined, air conditioned (dry air, middle 70 degrees in temp) spaces, close to each other, unmasked WILL create a super-spreader event - just like what happened in the only major source of outbreak in S. Korea - a religious meeting that ignored sound practice wrt containing the virus.

[shunyadragon]

Birthday party in Pasadena spreads virus to 18 or more.Two people are in the hospital in intensive care

Cluster of COVID-19 cases traced to coughing woman, lack of masks at Pasadena birthday party

Source:

https://abc7.com/pasadena-covid-coronavirus-cluster/6173576/]

A Pasadena party where a woman without a face mask was coughing and other guests weren't observing social distancing led to at least five COVID-19 cases, officials say.
By Rob Hayes

PASADENA, Calif. (KABC) -- If there's one thing you don't want to do in the middle of a pandemic lockdown, it's throw a big birthday party.

But that's exactly what happened in Pasadena last month. And when a woman infected with coronavirus showed up, and was coughing at the party without a mask, public health officials say the virus took off.

"There was someone who was coughing who attended the party and there were subsequently five laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 and many other people who are ill with COVID symptoms after that," said Dr. Ying-Ying Goh, the city of Pasadena's health officer.

Pasadena public health workers were able to track the spread of the virus back to the party by contact tracing. Officials say guests at the party did not wear face coverings or practice social distancing.

Health officials said the party was attended by "a large number" of extended family members and friends after the coronavirus stay-at-home order was issued.

But what's unknown right now is if any of the five infected partygoers have also spread the infection to others over the past few weeks.

"Everyone is asked to stay at home," Goh said. "They're ordered to stay at home, but we're just asking for the public's cooperation to keep yourself and your family safe."

City officials say no citations were issued in connection with the party.

Elsewhere in Pasadena, the city has reopened golf courses, but the popular Rose Bowl Loop trail remains closed. Libraries are also closed, but some city librarians are helping out during the pandemic by working with the health department as contact tracers.

Free COVID-19 testing is available at the Rose Bowl and ChapCare's Kathryn Barger Health Center. Appointments are required. Register on the city's official website.

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