Originally posted by oxmixmudd
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Coronavirus Outbreak...
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Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostNo, Mountain Man is just asking what the actual number of active cases are, and it seems the answer is "We really don't know." I suppose you could take comfort in the idea that there could, in fact, be more active cases than we realize.
If your point is that the number of active cases listed doesn't include the number of undiagnosed asymptomatic cases, then thank you captain obvious.Last edited by oxmixmudd; 05-05-2020, 09:52 AM.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostNo MM, we really do know how many of the diagnosed cases are still classified as active.Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View PostWe have no evidence of reinfection from recovered patients. Recovered patients are not classified as active.Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostYes, but how many people have recovered but are still classified as "active" cases?Last edited by JimL; 05-05-2020, 10:36 AM.
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostOkay, but what's considered "recovered"? How many people have recovered but are still classified as "active" cases?The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by JimL View PostThere are 1,215,862 confirmed cases, 258,216 of which that have either recovered or died, leaving 957,656 cases that are still active and that only includes the confirmed cases. There are another 2,600 confirmed cases each day, so the true number of active cases is likely much higher than the confirmed number of 957,656.
I have no clue how the database on which all of this functions is managed maintained, and what its degree of detail is. Does it include patient IDs, infection start/end dates? Or are they simply aggregating numbers from multiple sources and depending on the sources for accuracy. I suspect the latter.
But it doesn't matter. None of this data can ever be shown to be "exact," especially in the middle of a crisis. If it cannot be shown to be "exact," then MM can throw a lot of "uncertainty dust" at it and declare "we don't know" and walk away from any claims or suggestions made. The fact is, this data is the best we have - and planning has to be based on some knowledge of the reality. I'm not sure what MM is advocating as a substitute for basing planning/decision making on the available data. Maybe he thinks, like Trump does, that "his gut" is more than adequate?The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostFor most sites, "recovered" means they are no longer under the care of a physician and/or have been determined to no longer be infectious. No site claims to track people who never report an illness, which is why all of these numbers are believed to be under-estimates of the reality.Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostSo "active cases" is essentially a guess. That's what I was wondering.
I believe there is sufficient sampling of the population testing now to know the natural bell curve of course of the virus and difference between different regions and countries. Based on this I made a fairly accurate prediction of the bell curve course of the virus in the United States. The peak will be between late April to May centered on about May 1, and and the slow recovery will be through May and likely JuneLast edited by shunyadragon; 05-05-2020, 10:55 AM.
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostI'm realizing that MM is doing what MM pretty much always does: throwing a bunch of "uncertainty dust" in the air and then declaring "everyone is guessing."
[...]
I have no clue how the database on which all of this functions is managed maintained, and what its degree of detail is.Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View PostNo not remotely the point carpedm9587 is making.
ETA: The worldometer site itself outlines the level of reliableness of the data here. The "recovered" and "seriously ill" data is the most uncertain because there are so many different ways of making this assessment around the world. Some use the WHO/CDC metric of no symptoms and two consecutive negative texts spaced 24 hours apart. Some use discharge from hospital or doctor's care. Most of the information appears to come from health officials in the localities being reported and the worldometer teams work to double check for consistency between national and local numbers to the degree possible. The data is "the best available," which is all science can ever provide. Those making decisions on its basis should be factoring in degrees of uncertainty in their planning. I have no idea what the purpose is for pointing out that the data is not exact. It is what it is.Last edited by carpedm9587; 05-05-2020, 11:20 AM.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostPix, I know fantasizing I'm acting out of 'hatred' rather than facts or moral principles makes it easier for you to dismiss what I say, but you are acting on a strawman. A fantasy created in your own mind. I am motivated by real standards and real action taken (or not taken as the case may be) by Donald Trump. The CDC guidelines were made OPTIONAL. No one will enforce that the meat packing companies follow them. So there is little incentive, and no recourse for employees, if the guidelines are not followed. Further, they can't be closed if things get out of hand. And Further, the governor of at least one state (Republican) has set it up so that workers who are afraid to report back to work will lose their unemployment benefits. They return to their unsafe work environment or they are cut off from any and all state assistance. These are serious moral lapses. There is no reason other than profit to take the direction taken. They are supposedly suplying the PPE. So there is no reason at all not to require these corporate entities not to comply with the CDC guidelines. And it is unconscionable to FORCE workers to return to work if the safety protocols will not be enforced!But there aren't pictures of Joe Biden 'groping' little girls. That is just idiot stuff. If Joe Biden were actually groping whatever girls are in the pictures you are referring to, there would have been complaints made long ago. And just saying it over and over again will not suddenly make it true.If you defend Trump forcing workers back into unsafe work environments, and if you defend the state forcing workers to return to work in unsafe environments, and if you defend Trump giving corporate owners a pass on implementing CDC guidelines - you are saying 'it is ok for Trump to do what he is doing'.And you can extract punitive measures for lack of compliance with the guildelines without shutting the plants down. In fact, there is a very good incentive for corporate owners with $$$ for pupils and grass seed for a conscience: Big hefty fines. Remember, they have to stay open, and I think Trump can fix prices if he wants via the same act requiring them to stay open to keep them from gouging in response. So if they want to make money, they'd better make sure the guidelines are followed. It is not all that hard Pix.The military has no means of enforcing discipline in its ranks? That is news to me.Last edited by lilpixieofterror; 05-05-2020, 11:13 AM."The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy
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