Coronavirus Outbreak...

[Mountain Man]

MM just wants to continue to play the 'it's not really as bad as it appears to be' game.

No, Mountain Man is just asking what the actual number of active cases are, and it seems the answer is "We really don't know." I suppose you could take comfort in the idea that there could, in fact, be more active cases than we realize.

[oxmixmudd]

No, Mountain Man is just asking what the actual number of active cases are, and it seems the answer is "We really don't know." I suppose you could take comfort in the idea that there could, in fact, be more active cases than we realize.

No MM, we really do know how many of the diagnosed cases are still classified as active. And that value is tracked. So we've had a known number of diagnosed cases. And we have a known number of those that have died. And a known number of those that have recovered. And a known number of those that are still active.

If your point is that the number of active cases listed doesn't include the number of undiagnosed asymptomatic cases, then thank you captain obvious.

[Mountain Man]

No MM, we really do know how many of the diagnosed cases are still classified as active.

Yes, but how many people have recovered but are still classified as "active" cases?

[shunyadragon]

Yes, but how many people have recovered but are still classified as "active" cases?

We have no evidence of reinfection from recovered patients. Recovered patients are not classified as active.

[Mountain Man]

We have no evidence of reinfection from recovered patients. Recovered patients are not classified as active.

So "active cases" is essentially a guess. That's what I was wondering.

[JimL]

Yes, but how many people have recovered but are still classified as "active" cases?

There are 1,215,862 confirmed cases, 258,216 of which that have either recovered or died, leaving 957,656 cases that are still active and that only includes the confirmed cases. There are another 2,600 confirmed cases each day, so the true number of active cases is likely much higher than the confirmed number of 957,656. According to some estimates, the active cases are likely some 10 times higher than the confirmed cases, or nearly 10 million.

[carpedm9587]

Okay, but what's considered "recovered"? How many people have recovered but are still classified as "active" cases?

For most sites, "recovered" means they are no longer under the care of a physician and/or have been determined to no longer be infectious. No site claims to track people who never report an illness, which is why all of these numbers are believed to be under-estimates of the reality.

[carpedm9587]

There are 1,215,862 confirmed cases, 258,216 of which that have either recovered or died, leaving 957,656 cases that are still active and that only includes the confirmed cases. There are another 2,600 confirmed cases each day, so the true number of active cases is likely much higher than the confirmed number of 957,656.

I'm realizing that MM is doing what MM pretty much always does: throwing a bunch of "uncertainty dust" in the air and then declaring "everyone is guessing." In this case, he is speculating on how many "active" cases are actually "recovered" or "dead" and have slipped through the tracking.

I have no clue how the database on which all of this functions is managed maintained, and what its degree of detail is. Does it include patient IDs, infection start/end dates? Or are they simply aggregating numbers from multiple sources and depending on the sources for accuracy. I suspect the latter.

But it doesn't matter. None of this data can ever be shown to be "exact," especially in the middle of a crisis. If it cannot be shown to be "exact," then MM can throw a lot of "uncertainty dust" at it and declare "we don't know" and walk away from any claims or suggestions made. The fact is, this data is the best we have - and planning has to be based on some knowledge of the reality. I'm not sure what MM is advocating as a substitute for basing planning/decision making on the available data. Maybe he thinks, like Trump does, that "his gut" is more than adequate?

[Mountain Man]

For most sites, "recovered" means they are no longer under the care of a physician and/or have been determined to no longer be infectious. No site claims to track people who never report an illness, which is why all of these numbers are believed to be under-estimates of the reality.

Which is to say there are an unknown number of people who have recovered but are still classified as "active".

[shunyadragon]

So "active cases" is essentially a guess. That's what I was wondering.

What is not known is the exact count of those that asymptomatic and very mild cases, but the curves of the percentage of total tested as infected is decreasing. Also it is shown that the numbers tested for that have severe cases follows a predictable pattern proportional to rate of fatalities, and follow a natural curve of known histories of all viruse pandemics, epidemics and annual cycles of zoonotic flu and colds.

I believe there is sufficient sampling of the population testing now to know the natural bell curve of course of the virus and difference between different regions and countries. Based on this I made a fairly accurate prediction of the bell curve course of the virus in the United States. The peak will be between late April to May centered on about May 1, and and the slow recovery will be through May and likely June

[Mountain Man]

I'm realizing that MM is doing what MM pretty much always does: throwing a bunch of "uncertainty dust" in the air and then declaring "everyone is guessing."

[...]

I have no clue how the database on which all of this functions is managed maintained, and what its degree of detail is.

Exactly my point.

[JimL]

Exactly my point.

And your point is irrelevant, as usual.

[shunyadragon]

Exactly my point.

No not remotely the point carpedm9587 is making.

[carpedm9587]

No not remotely the point carpedm9587 is making.

Don't bother. I don't anymore. MM selectively edits out everything except what he wants to highlight, and then declares victory. It's his SOP. Engaging with it is pointless and just sidetracks the discussion to his nonsense.

ETA: The worldometer site itself outlines the level of reliableness of the data here. The "recovered" and "seriously ill" data is the most uncertain because there are so many different ways of making this assessment around the world. Some use the WHO/CDC metric of no symptoms and two consecutive negative texts spaced 24 hours apart. Some use discharge from hospital or doctor's care. Most of the information appears to come from health officials in the localities being reported and the worldometer teams work to double check for consistency between national and local numbers to the degree possible. The data is "the best available," which is all science can ever provide. Those making decisions on its basis should be factoring in degrees of uncertainty in their planning. I have no idea what the purpose is for pointing out that the data is not exact. It is what it is.

[lilpixieofterror]

Pix, I know fantasizing I'm acting out of 'hatred' rather than facts or moral principles makes it easier for you to dismiss what I say, but you are acting on a strawman. A fantasy created in your own mind. I am motivated by real standards and real action taken (or not taken as the case may be) by Donald Trump. The CDC guidelines were made OPTIONAL. No one will enforce that the meat packing companies follow them. So there is little incentive, and no recourse for employees, if the guidelines are not followed. Further, they can't be closed if things get out of hand. And Further, the governor of at least one state (Republican) has set it up so that workers who are afraid to report back to work will lose their unemployment benefits. They return to their unsafe work environment or they are cut off from any and all state assistance. These are serious moral lapses. There is no reason other than profit to take the direction taken. They are supposedly suplying the PPE. So there is no reason at all not to require these corporate entities not to comply with the CDC guidelines. And it is unconscionable to FORCE workers to return to work if the safety protocols will not be enforced!

But there aren't pictures of Joe Biden 'groping' little girls. That is just idiot stuff. If Joe Biden were actually groping whatever girls are in the pictures you are referring to, there would have been complaints made long ago. And just saying it over and over again will not suddenly make it true.

If you defend Trump forcing workers back into unsafe work environments, and if you defend the state forcing workers to return to work in unsafe environments, and if you defend Trump giving corporate owners a pass on implementing CDC guidelines - you are saying 'it is ok for Trump to do what he is doing'.

And you can extract punitive measures for lack of compliance with the guildelines without shutting the plants down. In fact, there is a very good incentive for corporate owners with $$$ for pupils and grass seed for a conscience: Big hefty fines. Remember, they have to stay open, and I think Trump can fix prices if he wants via the same act requiring them to stay open to keep them from gouging in response. So if they want to make money, they'd better make sure the guidelines are followed. It is not all that hard Pix.

The military has no means of enforcing discipline in its ranks? That is news to me.

I can make people’s lives quite miserable, but you can’t really fix people who don’t care.