It's the Economy, Stupid!

[NorrinRadd]

Another aspect of the economy, of course, is unemployment...



And a significant factor of that is the minority unemployment rate.

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It appears from this that the "U6" unemployment rate has just now gotten back down to where it was at the beginning of Bush 43. Peaked under Obama. Under Trump, it has continued the same line it ran under Obama.

[Cow Poke]

It appears from this that the "U6" unemployment rate has just now gotten back down to where it was at the beginning of Bush 43. Peaked under Obama. Under Trump, it has continued the same line it ran under Obama.

And, again, it matters not who or how -- what matters is that the perception, when Trump runs for reelection, will be (if it continues) that the economy is booming, unemployment is way down, the stock market is hitting record highs...

[demi-conservative]

If you have reasons to claim that the economy was doing poorly under Obama, then feel free to submit the evidence. So far I am simply countering claims that the economy had flatlined, or that unemployment was stagnant. I haven't seen any compelling evidence yet showing that anything other than climb out of recession happened under Obama.

The point you are ignoring is that GDP is useless for measuring economic health. You cannot point to GDP increasing and say that under Obama, the economy improved.

[JimL]

And, again, it matters not who or how -- what matters is that the perception, when Trump runs for reelection, will be (if it continues) that the economy is booming, unemployment is way down, the stock market is hitting record highs...

Which is why Trump continues to lie to you about everything. He's applying the propaganda tactic of repeatedly lying to you knowing that the more people hear the lie the more they begin to believe it. Particularly if they want to believe it.

[demi-conservative]

From 2010 to 2012, the USG debt increased by about 3 trillion. GDP grew from 15 trillion by about 1.2 trillion, so the net change is -1.8 trillion, -1.8/15 = -12%.

[Juvenal]

The only way I see around that would be a balanced budget amendment, but that seems about as realistic as Bernie Sanders' ideas.

The numbers say you should always borrow when your investments can give a better return, but that's not why I would oppose a balanced budget amendment. Standard Keynesian theory says the government should step in with infrastructure spending when the economy is slumping, both to level out the slump and accelerate new growth ... and step back with spending when they're competing for the same workers as the private sector.

A balanced budget amendment would be a mutual economic suicide pact.

[JimL]

The numbers say you should always borrow when your investments can give a better return, but that's not why I would oppose a balanced budget amendment. Standard Keynesian theory says the government should step in with infrastructure spending when the economy is slumping, both to level out the slump and accelerate new growth ... and step back with spending when they're competing for the same workers as the private sector.

A balanced budget amendment would be a mutual economic suicide pact.

Wouldn't the infrastructure spending go to the private sector?

[Juvenal]

Wouldn't the infrastructure spending go to the private sector?

Some would. A lot wouldn't. Roads and bridges are worked by YourstateDOT, for the most part.

[Juvenal]

Some would. A lot wouldn't. Roads and bridges are worked by YourstateDOT, for the most part.

Fun fact. Almost all of the roads in West Africa when I was there in 2002-2005 were built by bin Laden's dad's company.

[Mountain Man]

That is not quite true. The US in general is getting older, like Europe and other wealthy nations. Therefore more of its population is retiring. Therefore a lower labor participation rate in general. So if you want to look at relevant changes in the participation rate, you have to look at the seasonally adjusted rate for prime-age workers. Using that data, there was quite a bounce back under Obama as well.

It is also quite clear from this data, that most of the loss was solely due to the economic bubble burst in 2009, and most of it has been recovery since that point, and a near full bounce back happened under Obama.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...17-2?r=US&IR=T

Retirements don't account for the plummeting labor force under Obama or the steady rise we've seen under Trump.

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[Leonhard]

Retirements don't account for the plummeting labor force under Obama or the steady rise

The plummet was due to the economic bubble.

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See there you're taking the total civilian labor force, where you're not adjusting for retirement. If you select prime-age people in the job market you get a sharp uptick as the market is recovering.

[Leonhard]

From 2010 to 2012, the USG debt increased by about 3 trillion. GDP grew from 15 trillion by about 1.2 trillion, so the net change is -1.8 trillion, -1.8/15 = -12%.

The calculation here is a bit bunk unless you believe debt should be amortized within the year of borrowing it. I advise you to never make any investments if you're into that level of day trading. The US economy can tank this, and in the end, might be making more money from it than it borrowed. However, there comes a point where a country's debt to GDP ratio starts to go out of control, and their faith in the US economy might be lost, which could trigger an economic crisis.

There's still some way to go before you hit the levels of Greece or Japan, but it's not a good experiment to continue this into the future.

[Mountain Man]

If you select prime-age people in the job market you get a sharp uptick as the market is recovering.

Yes, if you sift the data enough, you can eventually produce the result you want.

[Cow Poke]

The numbers say you should always borrow when your investments can give a better return, but that's not why I would oppose a balanced budget amendment. Standard Keynesian theory says the government should step in with infrastructure spending when the economy is slumping, both to level out the slump and accelerate new growth ... and step back with spending when they're competing for the same workers as the private sector.

A balanced budget amendment would be a mutual economic suicide pact.

Unfortunately, pretty much yeah.

[Cow Poke]

Fun fact. Almost all of the roads in West Africa when I was there in 2002-2005 were built by bin Laden's dad's company.

But did the trains run on time?