The Joe Biden thread

[Cow Poke]

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My gramma would say "he speaks in fits and starts".

[seer]

My gramma would say "he speaks in fits and starts".

My grandma would say he has dementia...

[rogue06]

He could still reach the majotiy without NY. In fact, I believe cancelling NY hurts Bernie more than it does Biden.

Sanders dropped out. Biden would have won NY hands down.

[rogue06]

The rank-and-file membership had already settled on the candidate: Joe Biden. He was so far ahead of Sanders before this point that he had basically clinched the nomination. And whatever small, tiny, insignificant chance Sanders did have of somehow pulling it off disappeared when he suspended his campaign anyway.

Cancelling the primary at this point is nothing more than recognizing what the people had decided and not seeing any reason to bother with what's at this point a formality at best in the midst of an epidemic.

What it does is all but insures that Biden won't have enough delegates to win on the first round thus turning it into a brokered convention which allows the delegates to "draft" someone else.

[seanD]

Sanders dropped out. Biden would have won NY hands down.

I know, but he said he wanted to continue collecting more delegates for some reason or another, not sure why really, but had he won, just the optics of him possibly gaining in delegates would have looked positive to his diehard supporters and whatever cause they were hoping to achieve. If anything, it was a psychological blow for his base. It doesn't really stop Biden from getting majority.

[rogue06]

My grandma would say he has dementia...

Which goes back to the CBS video of him shopping for books on dementia

[seer]

Which goes back to the CBS video of him shopping for books on dementia

This is the best the Dems could do?

[DivineOb]

What it does is all but insures that Biden won't have enough delegates to win on the first round thus turning it into a brokered convention which allows the delegates to "draft" someone else.

Biden needs 563 of the remaining delegates to get a majority. He gets there easily even when New York is ignored (he just won 123 / 136 in Ohio!).

Besides, New York will either split the delegates equally with Sanders, proportionally to the number of delegates each candidate has at that point, or just not count towards the delegate total. None of those outcomes hurts Biden.

[seanD]

Biden needs 563 of the remaining delegates to get a majority. He gets there easily even when New York is ignored (he just won 123 / 136 in Ohio!).

Besides, New York will either split the delegates equally with Sanders, proportionally to the number of delegates each candidate has at that point, or just not count towards the delegate total. None of those outcomes hurts Biden.

Yeah, I don't see the need of a brokered convention. If Biden reached just a plurality, while all other candidates had stepped down, and they gave it to someone else, that would look way too obviously shady. They can just let it run its course and allow him to win the nom officially.

[Mountain Man]

I sometimes wonder if Biden is playing a long game, that this is all an act and Bernie and the DNC are in on it, and when the first debate happens, he's going to catch Trump completely off guard by suddenly being sharp and articulate.

[rogue06]

Biden needs 563 of the remaining delegates to get a majority. He gets there easily even when New York is ignored (he just won 123 / 136 in Ohio!).

Besides, New York will either split the delegates equally with Sanders, proportionally to the number of delegates each candidate has at that point, or just not count towards the delegate total. None of those outcomes hurts Biden.

With Sanders dropping out Biden would have swept the state. He will now get a much smaller share than he would have if Cuomo had permitted the party membership to vote.

[seanD]

I sometimes wonder if Biden is playing a long game, that this is all an act and Bernie and the DNC are in on it, and when the first debate happens, he's going to catch Trump completely off guard by suddenly being sharp and articulate.

Not gonna lie, I thought that myself (though not with Bernie in on it) based on what happened with his last debate with Bernie.

[DivineOb]

With Sanders dropping out Biden would have swept the state. He will now get a much smaller share than he would have if Cuomo had permitted the party membership to vote.

Biden needs just under 40% of the remaining delegates to get a majority. He'll do just fine under any reasonable scenario.

[KingsGambit]

I sometimes wonder if Biden is playing a long game, that this is all an act and Bernie and the DNC are in on it, and when the first debate happens, he's going to catch Trump completely off guard by suddenly being sharp and articulate.

In any political debate you have to prepare as if your opponent will put forward the best arguments possible. If they don't, they don't... but you can't bank on it.

I can't help but think of another debate involving Biden... the 2008 Vice Presidential Debate. Everybody expected that Sarah Palin would come across as a complete idiot, but she was well prepared and carried herself well. I still think Biden got the better of that debate, but it wasn't a bloodbath.

[rogue06]

In any political debate you have to prepare as if your opponent will put forward the best arguments possible. If they don't, they don't... but you can't bank on it.

I can't help but think of another debate involving Biden... the 2008 Vice Presidential Debate. Everybody expected that Sarah Palin would come across as a complete idiot, but she was well prepared and carried herself well. I still think Biden got the better of that debate, but it wasn't a bloodbath.

One of the biggest mistakes that any politician can make is holding their opponent (and their supporters) in contempt and regarding him as little more than a moron. If nothing else you set the bar for their doing well so low that simply being little more than competent will allow them to do well in a debate. The wise strategy is to build them up in hopes that they don't reach expectations -- and if they don't mock them as grossly overrated.