First Gun Confiscation Killing...

[Sparko]

No, having a gun on you doesn't necessarily give you a choice. If some mad man walks up to you and blows your head off it isn't going to matter one wit if you are carrying.

If someone walks up to you and sneezes on you don't have a choice in catching the flu either.

You can always just sit at home and avoid all other people and then you can avoid the flue or getting shot.

[oxmixmudd]

Yes, I do think that. You get the flu every year without a flu shot...I've never had the flu. Assuming the first number leads to the second is not in line with the laws of probability. BTW, my wife got a flu shot last year and still got the flu...meanwhile, I never get a flu shot and still didn't get it. If a coin is flipped 100 times and it comes up heads 100 times, what are the odds it will come up heads on the 101st try? Answer is 50%.

You're off in the weeds.

If I flip a coin 1 times the odds of getting heads at least 1 time is 50%
if I flip a coin 2 times the odds of getting heads at least 1 time is 75%
if I flip a coin 3 times the odds of getting heads at least 1 time is 87.5%


IOW 1-(odds of a tail)ⁿ

Apply that same formula for 5% = 1 - (19/20)⁸⁰
which works out to just above 98%

If we take 10%, that number is 99.98%


Jim

[Roy]

You seem to be deliberately ignoring my point to change the argument to one I'm not making...

Like completely ignoring the increase in mass shootings and changing the argument to flu shots?

I asked if it should be mandatory to get flu shots, not get one voluntarily like we do now. That's a direct correlation to regulating someone's ability to guy a gun.

It's not. Getting a flu jab is something you do to yourself. You can prevent catching flu* from some-one else by your own actions.
Not buying a gun has to be done by other people. You cannot prevent getting shot by your own actions.

*assuming the vaccine producers guess the right strain, etc etc etc

[Roy]

Whatever Roy, we both know you have zero interest in discussing these things as you are in expressing your LPOTOCD. Get help.

Stop responding to LPOT? You've run away.
Keep playing whack-a-mole? You've got OCD.

[JimL]

If someone walks up to you and sneezes on you don't have a choice in catching the flu either.

You can always just sit at home and avoid all other people and then you can avoid the flue or getting shot.

Or you can just get the flu vaccine and go about your life without worrying about possible external dangers.

[Littlejoe]

You're off in the weeds.

If I flip a coin 1 times the odds of getting heads at least 1 time is 50%
if I flip a coin 2 times the odds of getting heads at least 1 time is 75%
if I flip a coin 3 times the odds of getting heads at least 1 time is 87.5%


IOW 1-(odds of a tail)ⁿ

Apply that same formula for 5% = 1 - (19/20)⁸⁰
which works out to just above 98%

If we take 10%, that number is 99.98%


Jim

I think with this formula, you aren't taking into account that the same people get the flu (which drives up the precentage) while others never do.

[Sparko]

Or you can just get the flu vaccine and go about your life without worrying about possible external dangers.

getting a flu shot is no guarantee against catching the flu. It just lowers your odds. Kinda like staying out of bad neighborhoods lowers your odds of getting shot.

[oxmixmudd]

I think with this formula, you aren't taking into account that the same people get the flu (which drives up the precentage) while others never do.

True. The point was not the accuracy of the model. The point was the fact Roy was not making up the number.

Jim

[Roy]

Yes, I do think that. You get the flu every year without a flu shot...I've never had the flu.

If
1) Each year 5-20% of USans get the flu.
And
2) You get the flu every year without a flu shot
Then
3) 80%-95% of Usans must be getting flu shots each year

But that's false, so one of your premises is wrong.

[Sparko]

If
1) Each year 5-20% of USans get the flu.

So if every year you have a 80-95% chance of not catching the flu, and you add those odds up every year, you will have 100% chance of not catching the flu.

[Sparko]

You have a 1/14 million chance of winning the lottery each time you play. So if you play every week, your odds of winning increase each time right?

[JimL]

getting a flu shot is no guarantee against catching the flu. It just lowers your odds. Kinda like staying out of bad neighborhoods lowers your odds of getting shot.

Neither are gun laws a guarantee that a nut case won't get his hands on a gun, but it lowers the odds.

[Roy]

You have a 1/14 million chance of winning the lottery each time you play. So if you play every week, your odds of winning increase each time right?

The odds of confusion certainly increase.

[Roy]

So if every year you have a 80-95% chance of not catching the flu, and you add those odds up every year, you will have 100% chance of not catching the flu.

I make it 500%...

[Littlejoe]

True. The point was not the accuracy of the model. The point was the fact Roy was not making up the number.

Jim

Ah! I'll concede Roy didn't make up the number, but posted a real number that doesn't fit my point (or my model) thus a straw man. Agreed?