Roe V Wade Is Doomed...

[JimL]

So then why not let the woman decide if she wants to dispose of her children if they become bothersome a la Susan Smith? Isn't it her right to chose? Your buddy starlight seems to think so.

Duh! Because we obviously have a disagreement concerning what is and what is not murder.

[JimL]

Wrong. An overwhelming majority of Americans want "significant restrictions" placed on abortion.

Most everyone agrees with restrictions, and a majority agree with a womans right to choose.

[rogue06]

Duh! Because we obviously have a disagreement concerning what is and what is not murder.

All based on the age of the victim

[Teallaura]

What basis do you have for thinking this will happen?

1) History - gay marriage was unthinkable thirty years ago - and it's the nature of people to change their minds. Granted, some precepts become firmly rooted, making that unlikely - but all generations eventually question what they were taught - a process accelerated in modernity. Relativism and its multiple children are logically flawed - it's foolish to assume that succeeding generations will necessarily be unable to break free of them.

2) Current political activity: the left seems unable or unwilling to self govern any longer - eventually such movements reach the 'bridge too far' - and not only lose their momentum but swing the pendulum back.

3) The pendulum nature of political will - historically, the cycles have been cleaner but just because modern politics are muddier than usual doesn't mean that this process is gone. We've seen it in mini-strikes over the last forty years - and the probability is that it will eventually make a complete shift. We see this in the last twenty years of data on abortion opinions - the majority does not support abortion on demand any longer and hasn't in two decades. The Baby Boom resisted (not terribly successfully) the normal shift right seen in aging - but there's no reason to assume the successor generations will even try. They have no Woodstock or Viet Nam to rally around - but they do have decades of failed social experiments that left indelible marks on them - as they become parents, the odds are they will be rethinking the life choices their parents made.

[Teallaura]

Let the states decide? Why not just let women decide for themselves then?

Should I have the right to decide that I'm going to kill you legally? The 'right' to decide to kill another human being - that's not an individual power you (general) should grant.

The power to define murder is unquestionably a state power - it is NOT an individual power and never should be.

[Teallaura]

Don't be stupid. The women making the decision to have an abortion wouldn't be deciding/making law, they would be taking advantage of there being no such existing law. The right to choose would mean that there is no law against abortion.

Um, overturning Roe reinstates the laws it overturned unless they have been legislatively removed or are still affected by other case law. It does not create a blank legal slate as you seem to think.

[Teallaura]

So what, most americans continue to favor a womans right to choose and that basically it's non of the governments business.

Um, no - you're misreading the polls. Most Americans DO NOT favor 'abortion on demand' which is what 'right to choose' stands for. It's entirely the government's business - the government pays for these things primarily after all. And protecting citizens IS a primary duty of the government.

[Teallaura]

Most everyone agrees with restrictions, and a majority agree with a womans right to choose.

Yes to the first, no to the second. 'Abortion should be legal under some circumstances' DOES NOT equate to 'women get to choose to kill their kids' - the polls indicate the opposite, that a woman's 'right' to choose to kill her child should be strictly curtailed.

[JimL]

Yes to the first, no to the second. 'Abortion should be legal under some circumstances' DOES NOT equate to 'women get to choose to kill their kids' - the polls indicate the opposite, that a woman's 'right' to choose to kill her child should be strictly curtailed.

Here is a Pew research poll, taken each year starting from 1995 until 2017 which shows that support for a womens right to choose is as popular as ever.

http://www.pewforum.org/fact-sheet/p...on-on-abortion

Where are your polls which indicate the opposite?

[One Bad Pig]

Here is a Pew research poll, taken each year starting from 1995 until 2017 which shows that support for a womens right to choose is as popular as ever.

http://www.pewforum.org/fact-sheet/p...on-on-abortion

Where are your polls which indicate the opposite?

You provided support!

Please do this more often.

I think you and TL are operating under slightly different assumptions. TL seems to be interpreting the data to say that a comfortable majority (75%, per your link) do not think abortion should be legal in ALL situations - that is to say, there should be some restriction.

[Starlight]

1) History - gay marriage was unthinkable thirty years ago - and it's the nature of people to change their minds. Granted, some precepts become firmly rooted, making that unlikely - but all generations eventually question what they were taught - a process accelerated in modernity. Relativism and its multiple children are logically flawed - it's foolish to assume that succeeding generations will necessarily be unable to break free of them.

2) Current political activity: the left seems unable or unwilling to self govern any longer - eventually such movements reach the 'bridge too far' - and not only lose their momentum but swing the pendulum back.

3) The pendulum nature of political will - historically, the cycles have been cleaner but just because modern politics are muddier than usual doesn't mean that this process is gone. We've seen it in mini-strikes over the last forty years - and the probability is that it will eventually make a complete shift. We see this in the last twenty years of data on abortion opinions - the majority does not support abortion on demand any longer and hasn't in two decades. The Baby Boom resisted (not terribly successfully) the normal shift right seen in aging - but there's no reason to assume the successor generations will even try. They have no Woodstock or Viet Nam to rally around - but they do have decades of failed social experiments that left indelible marks on them - as they become parents, the odds are they will be rethinking the life choices their parents made.

Some pretty terrible predictions there and poor arguments to back it.

The NYT today has an opposite prediction, which seems to be a whole lot more backed by actual polling data, and actual voting results:

The Millennial Socialists Are Coming:

[JimL]

You provided support!

Please do this more often.

I think you and TL are operating under slightly different assumptions. TL seems to be interpreting the data to say that a comfortable majority (75%, per your link) do not think abortion should be legal in ALL situations - that is to say, there should be some restriction.

I don't think so, because I already agreed that nearly everyone thinks there should be restrictions, and there are restrictions. My specific point is that the majority of americans agree that abortion should be legal and that women should have the right to choose.

[Yttrium]

You know, I wouldn't be at all surprised if one or more of the conservative judges failed to overturn Roe Vs. Wade. It's been around so long now that it may be more difficult to overturn than people might think.

[Terraceth]

You know, I wouldn't be at all surprised if one or more of the conservative judges failed to overturn Roe Vs. Wade. It's been around so long now that it may be more difficult to overturn than people might think.

Well, Kentucky v. Dennison (1861) was overruled by Puerto Rico v Branstad (1987), 126 years later.

[NorrinRadd]

You know, I wouldn't be at all surprised if one or more of the conservative judges failed to overturn Roe Vs. Wade. It's been around so long now that it may be more difficult to overturn than people might think.

Right. Among other things, it depends on how much they favor stare decisis, and how concerned they are about the potential disruption it would cause.