Assessment of Mr. Trump

[Mountain Man]

That could be true: Trump's Presidency might the be the nail in the coffin of the Republican party.

Maybe to the Republican party as we know it, which isn't a bad thing.

As for polling, most incumbents will fair poorly against a generic candidate of the other party simply because the people being surveyed imagine their ideal candidate when reality is often quite different. It really doesn't tell us anything.

[Cow Poke]

Maybe to the Republican party as we know it, which isn't a bad thing.

As for polling, most incumbents will fair poorly against a generic candidate of the other party simply because the people being surveyed imagine their ideal candidate when reality is often quite different. It really doesn't tell us anything.

Yeah, cause the generic candidate doesn't have baggage.

[carpedm9587]

That could be true: Trump's Presidency might the be the nail in the coffin of the Republican party.

The Dems got +15 point swings on mean and median in the special elections and are looking at +19 point swings in 2018 congressional and senate races in current polling of "incumbent republican vs generic democrat". Paul Ryan is talking about resigning himself before he embarrassingly loses his own seat in 2018. It's looking set for a bloodbath in 2018 and 2020 at the moment, and longer term the demographics for Republican voters (older, whiter, evangelical, anti-abortion) aren't helpful. It's possible the Republican party might find a way to save itself, but it might split and get replaced, or it might hang on as a minority party like it did in the 1933 to 1969 period and go another 35 years without really winning a presidency (obviously Eisenhower ran as a Republican but he would have won in either party as people were voting for him not the party).

There is another possibility. As the Republican party swings further to the right, there is a corresponding reactive swing of the Democratic party to the left (or maybe it's the other way around - hard to tell which came first - the chicken or the egg). As that happens, the proportion of independents who do not like the tenor of either party increases. The largest voting block today sits nearer the center of the political spectrum. So there is a distinct possibilities, as the two established parties drift outward on the political spectrum, that there will be sufficient opening for centrist/moderates to emerge with a new political party entirely.

Of course, the problem with that is that centrists are, by definition, moderates. Extremists pound drums and dance at conventions. Moderates, not so much. It's hard to get that segment rallied. But if the other two parties drift far enough apart - who knows!? I tend to eschew parties - but I might actually join such a party.

[Starlight]

The largest voting block today sits nearer the center of the political spectrum.

Do you have any data to support that statement? As far as I can tell, the US electorate is far to the left of the Democratic party (whom I regard as unacceptably far to the right, both on an international/European scale and compared to their own base).

Here is polling data on major policy issues.

[Cow Poke]

Do you have any data to support that statement? As far as I can tell, the US electorate is far to the left of the Democratic party (whom I regard as unacceptably far to the right, both on an international/European scale and compared to their own base).

This TOTALLY explains why Trump was elected.

[Starlight]

This TOTALLY explains why Trump was elected.

Trump lied during the campaign. On many issues he campaigned to the left of Hillary Clinton (well, admittedly he contradicted himself a lot, so he was often to the right of her as well on the same issues). A lot of people believed him when he said things like he'd raise taxes on hedge fund managers (spoiler alert: He lowered them) etc.

[carpedm9587]

Do you have any data to support that statement? As far as I can tell, the US electorate is far to the left of the Democratic party (whom I regard as unacceptably far to the right, both on an international/European scale and compared to their own base).

Here is polling data on major policy issues.

The last study I saw on this placed moderates at 40%, with conservatives at 32% and liberals at 28%. I cannot find that study. This breakdown (https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/poll...ps-voted-2016/) puts the numbers at 39%, 35%, and 26% respectively. That being said, there are other groups that place conservatives and moderates at close to even, and one I found gave conservatives a slight edge.

The best I can say is that studies consistently put liberals at the back of the pack, and moderates seem to have a slight edge in the studies over conservatives, but within the margin of error. Thanks for forcing me to re-examine this. My impressions were based on data that was a few years old.

[Starlight]

The last study I saw on this placed moderates at 40%, with conservatives at 32% and liberals at 28%. I cannot find that study. This breakdown (https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/poll...ps-voted-2016/) puts the numbers at 39%, 35%, and 26% respectively. That being said, there are other groups that place conservatives and moderates at close to even, and one I found gave conservatives a slight edge.

The best I can say is that studies consistently put liberals at the back of the pack, and moderates seem to have a slight edge in the studies over conservatives, but within the margin of error. Thanks for forcing me to re-examine this. My impressions were based on data that was a few years old.

The labels that people give themselves often bear little relationship with the political policies they support. The measures you're looking at are just saying that the word 'liberal' itself isn't all that popular. Don't confuse that with being an accurate representation of those people's political positions on the issues.

[Tassman]

So, "fat people" aren't credible? You're just so petty.

[Cow Poke]

So, you just disparage fat people in general because you hate Trump. Got it!

[carpedm9587]

The labels that people give themselves often bear little relationship with the political policies they support. The measures you're looking at are just saying that the word 'liberal' itself isn't all that popular. Don't confuse that with being an accurate representation of those people's political positions on the issues.

When there are that many surveys with a similar distribution, Star, I tend to accept the results. I try not to dismiss information just because it does not align with my preconceptions, and I try not to accept data just because it does. I look for corroboration and go where the data takes me.

[Tassman]

So, you just disparage fat people in general because you hate Trump. Got it!

Just fat people who are compulsive liars and who brag about how they assault women! You know, like Trump. Such moral degenerates have no credibility.

[Starlight]

When there are that many surveys with a similar distribution, Star, I tend to accept the results. I try not to dismiss information just because it does not align with my preconceptions, and I try not to accept data just because it does. I look for corroboration and go where the data takes me.

Good for you. So do I.

Apparently it's not preventing you being overall wrong on this issue though. Perhaps you just haven't seen enough of the relevant polling?

[Starlight]

Good for you. So do I.

Apparently it's not preventing you being overall wrong on this issue though. Perhaps you just haven't seen enough of the relevant polling?

Here's a little more data on the issue...

Pew has found that the what was previously a roughly bell-shaped political distribution with the US electorate has polarized itself into two bell curves which are overlapping less and less:

As usual with Pew, their entire 10-page write-up on the subject (where I got those graphs from) is worth a read.

Their analysis of political sub-groups that they noticed within their own data also failed to reveal anything much that could be clearly labelled 'centrist':

[Cow Poke]

Just fat people who are compulsive liars and who brag about how they assault women! You know, like Trump. Such moral degenerates have no credibility.

It's incredibly childish to call names like "Fat Donny", but it seems to fit you, so....