I no longer consider myself pro-life

[Cow Poke]

The problem is - this is a hypothetical. I know of no evidence that proves that such an invasion was an inevitable outcome of NOT dropping the bomb, not to mention that it would have been at the scale of millions. So we are weighing the certain death of tens of thousands of innocents against the possible future death of an unknown number. Furthermore, dropping the bomb on a city rather than a predominantly military target...?

The moral equation here seems fairly clear.

While I agree that we can't know what might have happened, there is no doubt that an invasion plan existed, and the preparation for it was already being implemented.

The Invasion Plans

ww2dbaseAs the naval and air forces bombarded Japan, the Allied leaders planned the actual invasion, which was code named Operation Downfall. The responsibility of planning went to Douglas MacArthur, Chester Nimitz, George Marshall, Ernest King, Hap Arnold, and William Leahy. The inter-service rivalry between the US Army and US Navy was addressed by an agreement that, should situation deem necessary, US Army General Douglas MacArthur would assume total command. Regarding the Japanese capacity to defend the Japanese home islands, American planning assumed:

"That operations in this area will be opposed not only by the available organized military forces of the Empire, but also by a fanatically hostile population."
"That approximately three (3) hostile divisions will be disposed in Southern KYUSHU and an additional three (3) in Northern KYUSHU at initiation of the OLYMPIC operation."
"That total hostile forces committed against KYUSHU operations will not exceed eight (8) to ten (10) divisions and that this level will be speedily attained."
"That approximately twenty-one (21) hostile divisions, including depot divisions, will be on HONSHU at initiation of that operation Coronet and that fourteen (14) of these divisions may be employed in the KANTO PLAIN area."
"That the enemy may withdraw his land-based air forces to the Asiatic Mainland for protection from our neutralizing attacks. That under such circumstances he can possibly amass from 2,000 to 2,500 planes in that area by exercise of rigid economy, and that this force can operate against KYUSHU landings by staging through homeland fields."

ww2dbaseThe invasion plan called for two separate invasions.

My own dear dad, a sergeant in the Army Air Corps, had served in the European Theater, and had received his orders to report to the South Pacific. Thankfully, those orders were countermanded, and he returned to the States.

[Roy]

While I agree that we can't know what might have happened, there is no doubt that an invasion plan existed, and the preparation for it was already being implemented.

Yes. IIRC it wasn't certain that the nukes would work, and it wasn't certain that Japan would surrender after the bombs were dropped. The US had to have contingency plans.

As it happened, Japan didn't surrender after the first one, and only surrendered after the second one because an attempted coup failed. An invasion may still have been necessary. On the other hand, Japan might have surrendered quickly after an invasion started, or after further conventional bombing; the emperor may have been considering capitulating, but overruled. We can't know.

But we do know that it isn't as simple as 'nuke the cities or millions die in an invasion'.

[lilpixieofterror]

The problem is - this is a hypothetical. I know of no evidence that proves that such an invasion was an inevitable outcome of NOT dropping the bomb, not to mention that it would have been at the scale of millions. So we are weighing the certain death of tens of thousands of innocents against the possible future death of an unknown number. Furthermore, dropping the bomb on a city rather than a predominantly military target...?

The moral equation here seems fairly clear.

The US military estimated the US casualties would have been in the millions. That is just our side, the Japanese likely would have suffered far more if Okinawa and other battles was anything to go off from. This would have been worse than any war the US had fought in, combined. Even consertives estimates were saying 200,000 casualties in 90 days. It was estimated to take a year or more to take the Japanese Home islands.

Yeah the moral question is quite clear, at least a million dead, millions injured, and the entire country of Japan leveled vs dropping 2 bombs and convincing them to surrender. Sounds like an obvious choice to me.

[lilpixieofterror]

While I agree that we can't know what might have happened, there is no doubt that an invasion plan existed, and the preparation for it was already being implemented.

The Invasion Plans

ww2dbaseAs the naval and air forces bombarded Japan, the Allied leaders planned the actual invasion, which was code named Operation Downfall. The responsibility of planning went to Douglas MacArthur, Chester Nimitz, George Marshall, Ernest King, Hap Arnold, and William Leahy. The inter-service rivalry between the US Army and US Navy was addressed by an agreement that, should situation deem necessary, US Army General Douglas MacArthur would assume total command. Regarding the Japanese capacity to defend the Japanese home islands, American planning assumed:

"That operations in this area will be opposed not only by the available organized military forces of the Empire, but also by a fanatically hostile population."
"That approximately three (3) hostile divisions will be disposed in Southern KYUSHU and an additional three (3) in Northern KYUSHU at initiation of the OLYMPIC operation."
"That total hostile forces committed against KYUSHU operations will not exceed eight (8) to ten (10) divisions and that this level will be speedily attained."
"That approximately twenty-one (21) hostile divisions, including depot divisions, will be on HONSHU at initiation of that operation Coronet and that fourteen (14) of these divisions may be employed in the KANTO PLAIN area."
"That the enemy may withdraw his land-based air forces to the Asiatic Mainland for protection from our neutralizing attacks. That under such circumstances he can possibly amass from 2,000 to 2,500 planes in that area by exercise of rigid economy, and that this force can operate against KYUSHU landings by staging through homeland fields."

ww2dbaseThe invasion plan called for two separate invasions.

My own dear dad, a sergeant in the Army Air Corps, had served in the European Theater, and had received his orders to report to the South Pacific. Thankfully, those orders were countermanded, and he returned to the States.

[demi-conservative]

I don't know you very well. I do know this as much as I disagree with quite a bit on the left I know they are still people. Right left libertarian we are all sinners in need of a savior. What good will it do to your soul to say such things? Pray for them.

I can't wait for Darth to become sword against wicked (Rom 13.4)!!!

[tabibito]

wouldn't that still be "self-defense?"

For instance, dropping the bomb on Japan in WW2 killed lots of civilians, innocent women and children, pregnant women, old men, etc. But doing that ended the war, protected the USA and Europe and the Pacific from more horrendous losses and the death of our women, children, and civilians.

Killing civilians in war is something to be avoided but sometimes it can't be.

And it was a deliberate targetting of civilians - which was even then a war crime, as was the wholesale fire-bombing of (in this case, Japanese) cities.
There was a simple way to avoid additional losses available before little boy was dropped on Hiroshima - all that was needed was to accept the Japanese offer of surrender which was made PRIOR to the nuclear bombing. That offer was rejected because it was not an unconditional surrender.

Japan did not surrender until 8 days after the bombing of Nagasaki. Whether the nuclear weapons played any part in Japan's surrender is disputed. The surrender happened after Manchuria fell to Russia - which made it impossible for Japan to fight on - their oil supplies were obliterated. The assault on Manchuria would have secured the surrender even without the use of A-bombs.

[RumTumTugger]

While I agree that we can't know what might have happened, there is no doubt that an invasion plan existed, and the preparation for it was already being implemented.

The Invasion Plans

ww2dbaseAs the naval and air forces bombarded Japan, the Allied leaders planned the actual invasion, which was code named Operation Downfall. The responsibility of planning went to Douglas MacArthur, Chester Nimitz, George Marshall, Ernest King, Hap Arnold, and William Leahy. The inter-service rivalry between the US Army and US Navy was addressed by an agreement that, should situation deem necessary, US Army General Douglas MacArthur would assume total command. Regarding the Japanese capacity to defend the Japanese home islands, American planning assumed:

"That operations in this area will be opposed not only by the available organized military forces of the Empire, but also by a fanatically hostile population."
"That approximately three (3) hostile divisions will be disposed in Southern KYUSHU and an additional three (3) in Northern KYUSHU at initiation of the OLYMPIC operation."
"That total hostile forces committed against KYUSHU operations will not exceed eight (8) to ten (10) divisions and that this level will be speedily attained."
"That approximately twenty-one (21) hostile divisions, including depot divisions, will be on HONSHU at initiation of that operation Coronet and that fourteen (14) of these divisions may be employed in the KANTO PLAIN area."
"That the enemy may withdraw his land-based air forces to the Asiatic Mainland for protection from our neutralizing attacks. That under such circumstances he can possibly amass from 2,000 to 2,500 planes in that area by exercise of rigid economy, and that this force can operate against KYUSHU landings by staging through homeland fields."

ww2dbaseThe invasion plan called for two separate invasions.

My own dear dad, a sergeant in the Army Air Corps, had served in the European Theater, and had received his orders to report to the South Pacific. Thankfully, those orders were countermanded, and he returned to the States.

Your Dad was nto the only one one of my favorite Uncles also had orders and was on board a ship waiting to land.

[carpedm9587]

The US military estimated the US casualties would have been in the millions. That is just our side, the Japanese likely would have suffered far more if Okinawa and other battles was anything to go off from. This would have been worse than any war the US had fought in, combined. Even consertives estimates were saying 200,000 casualties in 90 days. It was estimated to take a year or more to take the Japanese Home islands.

Yeah the moral question is quite clear, at least a million dead, millions injured, and the entire country of Japan leveled vs dropping 2 bombs and convincing them to surrender. Sounds like an obvious choice to me.

These are talking points almost exactly out of Truman's speech, which was a political speech. Can you provide the sources for these estimates (other than a political speech) that I can examine?

And that still does not, IMO, justify dropping nuclear arms on civilian populations. The power of those bombs could have been demonstratred on military targets, or even infrastructure, with far less loss of life. I will willingly look at your data to see if your claim (above) is based on fact or speculation. But I have never seen anyone making this claim actually provide data to support the claims. Ergo, I remain (so far) of the opinion that the U.S. acted immorally in that instance.

Sometimes - our country gets it wrong.