Iranian Counterattack

[Juvenal]

Iran told Turkey in advance of its operation against Israel, Turkish source says

Iran’s attack seemed planned to minimize casualties while maximizing spectacle
.

The relatively high degree of US intelligence about the operation also suggests Iran may have engaged in back-channelling with Western leaders. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said he gave neighboring countries, including major US allies, 72-hour notice.

My earlier analysis relied on evaluating the military threat without considering the realpolitik. I didn't expect them to pull their punch, let alone telegraph it.

[Cow Poke]

Iran’s attack seemed planned to minimize casualties while maximizing spectacle
.

The relatively high degree of US intelligence about the operation also suggests Iran may have engaged in back-channelling with Western leaders. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said he gave neighboring countries, including major US allies, 72-hour notice.

My earlier analysis relied on evaluating the military threat without considering the realpolitik. I didn't expect them to pull their punch, let alone telegraph it.

So, why? Knowing (or not?) that this might actually restoke support for Israel, why this attack?

[rogue06]

So, why? Knowing (or not?) that this might actually restoke support for Israel, why this attack?

I suspect internal politics may be playing a major role here

[Juvenal]

I suspect internal politics may be playing a major role here

Israel killed a passel of Iranian generals by dropping a bomb on their consulate. That's Iranian soil. I'm not seeing any scenario where we'd let that slide. I'm not seeing any scenario where anyone would let that slide.

Then again, I'm not seeing any scenario where they wouldn't have extracted blood for blood, so I'm thinking maybe my thinking needs adjusting here.

[Cow Poke]

Then, again, we seem to assume we're dealing with sane rational people.

[Starlight]

Iran’s attack seemed planned to minimize casualties while maximizing spectacle
.

The relatively high degree of US intelligence about the operation also suggests Iran may have engaged in back-channelling with Western leaders. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said he gave neighboring countries, including major US allies, 72-hour notice.

Your OP article also discussed them talking to Turkey and that that there was an information flow from the US via Turkey. But the fact that there were wider discussions in no way surprises me. A lot of commentators were inferring that both from the time it was taking for Iran to militarily respond, and from general comments of various states and politicians.

My earlier analysis relied on evaluating the military threat without considering the realpolitik. I didn't expect them to pull their punch, let alone telegraph it.

As I commented before the strike hit:

Iran seems to have shown a lot of restraint over the last several years. And it appears like Iran took the time and effort to talk to the US behind the scenes to discuss what an acceptable response could be.

And after the strike failed:

This is consistent with Iran's typical responses over the last several years: An extremely weak counter attack in order to give the appearance of retaliation without inflicting serious damage in order to de-escalate the situation, and then a diplomatic response that they're going to stop there.

Honestly, I've been really really impressed by Iran: I can't think of another country who's consistently handled international diplomacy and serious military incidents against them so rationally and so well in recent decades.

If you ignore the "Iran evil!", "We Totally Must Attack them right now!", of some of the military-industrial talking heads in the media, and instead look at Iran's actions, they've actually been very reasonable over the course of multiple years. Far more so than the US. Whoever's been calling the shots there is thoughtful and nuanced.

Biden's bizarre decision to not reinstate Obama's Iran treaty, that Trump had ripped up for the spiteful sake of destroying Obama accomplishments, looks more face-palm worthy every day.

[Starlight]

Then, again, we seem to assume we're dealing with sane rational people.

Obviously not: The US and Israel are involved.

I would put a joking emoji in... but depressingly I'm deadly serious. The world is getting very topsy turvy when Iran is the adult in the room.

[Juvenal]

If you ignore the "Iran evil!", "We Totally Must Attack them right now!", of some of the military-industrial talking heads in the media, and instead look at Iran's actions, they've actually been very reasonable over the course of multiple years. Far more so than the US. Whoever's been calling the shots there is thoughtful and nuanced.

Biden's bizarre decision to not reinstate Obama's Iran treaty, that Trump had ripped up for the spiteful sake of destroying Obama accomplishments, looks more face-palm worthy every day.

Busting a treaty is something you can do unilaterally. Tell me again why Iran would want to sign up again after we reneged on it the first time?

[Starlight]

Busting a treaty is something you can do unilaterally. Tell me again why Iran would want to sign up again after we reneged on it the first time?

They appear willing to.

Why? I can only wildly speculate. My guess would be they want nuclear power not nuclear weapons, so are happy to sign a treaty that enforces that, especially if it stops liars in other nations from fomenting war by pretending Iran is just about to get nukes and that a strike against Iran is necessary to prevent that

[Cow Poke]

Obviously not: The US and Israel are involved.

I would put a joking emoji in... but depressingly I'm deadly serious. The world is getting very topsy turvy when Iran is the adult in the room.

wow

[Starlight]

Did you forgot the part where the US reversed its own position on the Iran treaty? And it was primarily because one US president hated a previous US president. Kindergarten stuff.

I'll also remind you that a plurality of people in most countries in the world rate the US as the #1 threat to world peace when surveyed.

[Juvenal]

They appear willing to.

That would be news to me. I haven't seen anything about that in the press. On the contrary they were bitterly complaining about the lack of access to promised funds and markets before we canceled the deal. Surely, given a magic wand, I'd vastly prefer having them as an ally over the Saudis. They had a history of democratization before we imposed the Shah on them and an affinity for western culture under the Shah they haven't lost. But if I were them, I'd be looking for a much better deal with better guarantees before they signed up with us again.

[Starlight]

That would be news to me. I haven't seen anything about that in the press. On the contrary they were bitterly complaining about the lack of access to promised funds and markets before we canceled the deal. Surely, given a magic wand, I'd vastly prefer having them as an ally over the Saudis. They had a history of democratization before we imposed the Shah on them and an affinity for western culture under the Shah they haven't lost. But if I were them, I'd be looking for a much better deal with better guarantees before they signed up with us again.

Wiki article is good if you want some reading... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Join...Plan_of_Action

Iran and the EU tried to keep the agreement going after the US pulled out. Iran's position seems to have been pretty consistent with regard to them wanting the deal to resume.

E.g. from the wiki page:

In December 2020, Iranian officials expressed further willingness to rejoin the deal, provided that U.S. officials make assurances regarding lifting sanctions and also rejoin the deal.[24][25]

[rogue06]

Israel killed a passel of Iranian generals by dropping a bomb on their consulate. That's Iranian soil. I'm not seeing any scenario where we'd let that slide. I'm not seeing any scenario where anyone would let that slide.

Then again, I'm not seeing any scenario where they wouldn't have extracted blood for blood, so I'm thinking maybe my thinking needs adjusting here.

I don't think they want to get into a full on war with Israel, but still felt they had to respond.

And no, we'd never let it slide. We react by leaping in with both feet but are quick to tell everyone else to think before they act.

[rogue06]

Busting a treaty is something you can do unilaterally. Tell me again why Iran would want to sign up again after we reneged on it the first time?

Why does anyone ever align with us or rely on our help? We tend to throw them under the bus after awhile.