Iranian Counterattack

[Juvenal]

NBC Live Stream

Iran launches drone attack at Israel, expected to unfold 'over hours'

[Juvenal]

The news is still breaking. It appears that Iran intends to overwhelm Israeli defenses with sufficient drones launched from multiple countries arriving simultaneously.

[Sam]

The news is still breaking. It appears that Iran intends to overwhelm Israeli defenses with sufficient drones launched from multiple countries arriving simultaneously.

And cruise missiles, from some accounts.

My hope is that the effort is largely performative, with Iran trying very hard to be conspicuous and Israel/allies trying very hard to intercept all or nearly all attacks. If this can end as a tit-for-tat strike, everyone would be pretty lucky.

But that's not the outcome Netanyahu wants and I guess now we can't count on it being the outcome Tehran wants.

-Sam

[seer]

[seer]

But that's not the outcome Netanyahu wants and I guess now we can't count on it being the outcome Tehran wants.

-Sam

How do,you know that? Or is this just more slander on your part?

[Juvenal]

And cruise missiles, from some accounts.

Different weapons systems travel at different speeds. I expect they'll be staggering launches to maximize successful strikes.

My hope is that the effort is largely performative, with Iran trying very hard to be conspicuous and Israel/allies trying very hard to intercept all or nearly all attacks. If this can end as a tit-for-tat strike, everyone would be pretty lucky.

I don't believe that's remotely likely.

But that's not the outcome Netanyahu wants and I guess now we can't count on it being the outcome Tehran wants.

-Sam

There's only so much one can ascribe to incompetence. The presumption that October 7 represented an intelligence failure is called into question by the unreasonable effectiveness of Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Combined with Netanyahu's decision not to inform Washington before launching an attack on Iranian military command-and-control on Syrian soil, my working hypothesis is that both incidents were engineered by Netanyahu to wag the dog.

Netanyahu is trying to drag us into a war with Iran.

[seer]

Netanyahu is trying to drag us into a war with Iran.

According to Fox news the US is in the process of helping to shoot down the drones. So we are already involved.

[Ronson]

My hope is that the effort is largely performative, with Iran trying very hard to be conspicuous and Israel/allies trying very hard to intercept all or nearly all attacks. If this can end as a tit-for-tat strike, everyone would be pretty lucky.

I don't believe that's remotely likely.

I think this is exactly what will happen. Iran is striving to become a nuclear power and they're getting close. Getting into a full-blown war with Israel at this stage will only hinder that, because anything and everything connected with that ambition in Iran will be targeted.

[Starlight]

But that's not the outcome Netanyahu wants and I guess now we can't count on it being the outcome Tehran wants.

Iran seems to have shown a lot of restraint over the last several years. And it appears like Iran took the time and effort to talk to the US behind the scenes to discuss what an acceptable response could be.

It's interesting to see the US saying they were blindsided by Netanyahu's escalation against Iran. Whereas they've been implying that Iran's been talking to them. If you had to guess from that, which was a US ally and which a US enemy, you'd think it was the other way around.

How do,you know that?

Netanyahu is extremely unpopular within Israel and reasonably likely to be forced out of office due to that once this current conflict ends. He is also facing corruption charges that will likely send him to prison shortly after this conflict ends. So it's extremely in his personal interests to prolong the war indefinitely to keep himself in power and out of prison. Netanyahu's comments and actions have made fairly clear that he thinks his path to staying the power is to widen the war, to include other countries. Iran's long been one of his personal favorites to fearmonger about. So nobody was too surprised by his choice to do a war crime by striking an Iranian consulate.

[seer]

Iran seems to have shown a lot of restraint over the last several years. And it appears like Iran took the time and effort to talk to the US behind the scenes to discuss what an acceptable response could be.

It's interesting to see the US saying they were blindsided by Netanyahu's escalation against Iran. Whereas they've been implying that Iran's been talking to them. If you had to guess from that, which was a US ally and which a US enemy, you'd think it was the other way around.


Netanyahu is extremely unpopular within Israel and reasonably likely to be forced out of office due to that once this current conflict ends. He is also facing corruption charges that will likely send him to prison shortly after this conflict ends. So it's extremely in his personal interests to prolong the war indefinitely to keep himself in power and out of prison. Netanyahu's comments and actions have made fairly clear that he thinks his path to staying the power is to widen the war, to include other countries. Iran's long been one of his personal favorites to fearmonger about. So nobody was too surprised by his choice to do a war crime by striking an Iranian consulate.

We just all better hope that a lot of Jews are not killed in this attack.

[Starlight]

Iran launches drone attack at Israel, expected to unfold 'over hours'

The psychological/media effects of such a slow strike are interesting. It gives a long time for civilians to take cover, and I suspect the drones will do pretty minimal damage once they actually hit. But the time the drones spend getting there keeps it in the news cycle over a full day or so of coverage, and gives the Israeli people a long time to spend thinking about what their own regime has done and whether it was worth it and who was responsible.

[Starlight]

We just all better hope that a lot of Jews are not killed in this attack.

Indeed. But that forefronts the massive danger to Jews, caused by people like you, who have been encouraging and supporting Jewish people concentrating themselves geographically together in the midst of enemies. If you actually gave a fig about keeping Jews safe, as I do, you wouldn't be promoting and supporting that.

The whole project of recreating Israel and having Jews move there is massively dangerous for Jews: It leads to things like the current situation, where drones and possible missiles are flying towards a region packed with Jews. And in a worst-case scenario it could escalate to a situation where millions of Jews could be killed.

If you actually cared about the lives of Jews, as I do, you wouldn't have wanted to put those Jews in harms way in the first place. Instead, I have to presume you're just trying to live out your religious end-times fantasy, which involves packing the region with Jews and having them all get killed in an apocalyptic war. Thus making you an extreme anti-Semite. It's depressing that the reason so many non-Jews are Zionists is their anti-Semitism.

[Ronson]

I think this is exactly what will happen. Iran is striving to become a nuclear power and they're getting close. Getting into a full-blown war with Israel at this stage will only hinder that, because anything and everything connected with that ambition in Iran will be targeted.

FOLLOW UP - 9 pm 4-13-24

Israel and the US are saying "most" of the drones and missiles have been shot down. Assuming the ones that made it through did not cause deaths or great damage, then the opportunity for a standdown is possible.

From Iran: “The matter can be deemed concluded ... However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe”

It's up to Netanyahu now. Does he want to fight Iran now before it acquires nukes? Does he want to do this under Biden's administration? Would he get more support from Trump if he waited? A lot of possibilities.

[Starlight]

Israel and the US are saying "most" of the drones and missiles have been shot down. Assuming the ones that made it through did not cause deaths or great damage, then the opportunity for a standdown is possible.

From Iran: “The matter can be deemed concluded ... However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe”

This is consistent with Iran's typical responses over the last several years: An extremely weak counter attack in order to give the appearance of retaliation without inflicting serious damage in order to de-escalate the situation, and then a diplomatic response that they're going to stop there.

Honestly, I've been really really impressed by Iran: I can't think of another country who's consistently handled international diplomacy and serious military incidents against them so rationally and so well in recent decades.

It's up to Netanyahu now. Does he want to fight Iran now before it acquires nukes?Does he want to do this under Biden's administration? Would he get more support from Trump if he waited? A lot of possibilities.

?!?

Obviously Netanyahu personally wants a wider war and a longer war, to delay his own personal removal from power within Israel.

But I struggle to believe even Netanyahu wants an all-out direct fight with Iran. Iran is too powerful. Israel lost / drew at best with Iran's proxy Hezbollah in 2006. Iran has a pretty serious military force. This analysis rates Iran the 17th most powerful military in the world, with Israel at 18th. Those rankings might be a bit wrong, but an all-out-fight against a country of similar military strength to yourself is just asking for suffering for your own people. Currently Russia (#2) is struggling super hard against Ukraine (#15), with over 50,000 Russian deaths.

Unless you're hungering for Jewish deaths, then, no, Israel does not want to fight Iran. And if Israel is internationally viewed as the aggressor in the situation, it's going to get very limited international help, and multiple militias in the region would come to Iran's aid, perhaps even some Arab states.

[Sam]

This is consistent with Iran's typical responses over the last several years: An extremely weak counter attack in order to give the appearance of retaliation without inflicting serious damage in order to de-escalate the situation, and then a diplomatic response that they're going to stop there.

Honestly, I've been really really impressed by Iran: I can't think of another country who's consistently handled international diplomacy and serious military incidents against them so rationally and so well in recent decades.

?!?

Obviously Netanyahu personally wants a wider war and a longer war, to delay his own personal removal from power within Israel.

But I struggle to believe even Netanyahu wants an all-out direct fight with Iran. Iran is too powerful. Israel lost / drew at best with Iran's proxy Hezbollah in 2006. Iran has a pretty serious military force. This analysis rates Iran the 17th most powerful military in the world, with Israel at 18th. Those rankings might be a bit wrong, but an all-out-fight against a country of similar military strength to yourself is just asking for suffering for your own people. Currently Russia (#2) is struggling super hard against Ukraine (#15), with over 50,000 Russian deaths.

Unless you're hungering for Jewish deaths, then, no, Israel does not want to fight Iran. And if Israel is internationally viewed as the aggressor in the situation, it's going to get very limited international help, and multiple militias in the region would come to Iran's aid, perhaps even some Arab states.

Calculated to fail or not, Iran's action was disproportionate and dangerous. There was the strong possibility, if not likelihood, that intercepted targets would still kill civilians in Israel or Jordan.

Iran starting or escalating a war would immediately involve pitting itself against:

• Israel (nukes & tactical nukes)
• USA (biggest military in the world)
• UK
• Most of the EU
• Saudi Arabia (primary regional adversary)
• etc.

And it's not like Iran can count heavily on support from Russia these days, since the current weapons transfers are going the other way. So in a hot war, Iran gets help from ... China? Maybe but probably not — China has far too many economic irons in the fire to align itself squarely with Iran in a military conflict. Xi might use the situation to annex Taiwan but I doubt that relieves much pressure on Iran.

In short, Iran's actions are rational but self-interested. If it doesn't start a war in the region, most likely reason is that it can't win a war in the region. Which is why this disproportionate response seems irrational, even if it was designed to be performative (which is still an unanswered question).

-Sam