You don't know Jack

[Cow Poke]

Based on what I've been reading, the Republican party is already looking for ways to "compromise" with the Democrats.

We're shocked, yes?

[Mountain Man]

We're shocked, yes?

It's why the pendulum never seems to swing back very far to the right when Republicans are in power. President Trump pushed us further to the right than any other Republican in decades, and you can see how the Washington establishment reacted.

[Cow Poke]

It's why the pendulum never seems to swing back very far to the right when Republicans are in power. President Trump pushed us further to the right than any other Republican in decades, and you can see how the Washington establishment reacted.

Reagan and Trump --- otherwise, milquetoast.

[Stoic]

We are in deep doo-doo if its even odds that the IRS will unlawfully target one side or the other. Whatever happened to not targeting anyone specifically?

That's not what I meant about even odds, and you would know it if you were reading carefully. It's about how big a coincidence it is that Smith was motivated by a NYT article attacking conservative organizations AND that the IRS allegedly targeted conservative organizations for more scrutiny, and whether that indicates that Smith had anything to do with which organizations the IRS targeted more zealously.

Even if you assume that the IRS is guilty of political bias, and even if you assume that Democratic organizations are just as likely to abuse tax exempt status as Republican organizations, it's not a big coincidence that Smith was originally motivated by an article about Republican organizations. It could just as easily have turned out that he had been originally motivated by a WSJ article about Democratic organizations abusing their tax exempt status. In the one case, it's a nothingburger, and in the other, it's a YUGE coincidence. In reality, it's just a coin flip. (And if it comes up tails, the Republican smear machine goes looking for some other coin flip to complain about.)

[Stoic]

With all of the talk from various Republican leaders about what they are planning when they resume control of the House I haven't heard much if anything about defunding the new 87,000 agents.

With such a slim majority, the Republicans are limited to doing things that pretty much all of their members can agree on. And shutting down the federal government over defunding the IRS probably isn't one of them.

[Mountain Man]

That's not what I meant about even odds, and you would know it if you were reading carefully. It's about how big a coincidence it is that Smith was motivated by a NYT article attacking conservative organizations AND that the IRS allegedly targeted conservative organizations for more scrutiny, and whether that indicates that Smith had anything to do with which organizations the IRS targeted more zealously.

Even if you assume that the IRS is guilty of political bias, and even if you assume that Democratic organizations are just as likely to abuse tax exempt status as Republican organizations, it's not a big coincidence that Smith was originally motivated by an article about Republican organizations. It could just as easily have turned out that he had been originally motivated by a WSJ article about Democratic organizations abusing their tax exempt status. In the one case, it's a nothingburger, and in the other, it's a YUGE coincidence. In reality, it's just a coin flip. (And if it comes up tails, the Republican smear machine goes looking for some other coin flip to complain about.)

No, you're right, it's just a startling coincidence that Smith read an article about conservative groups and then worked with the IRS who illegally targeted conservative groups. There's no connection whatsoever. None at all. No, really.

[Stoic]

No, you're right, it's just a startling coincidence that Smith read an article about conservative groups and then worked with the IRS who illegally targeted conservative groups. There's no connection whatsoever. None at all. No, really.

For someone who doesn't understand probability, and is using motivated reasoning, it's a YUGE coincidence.

[Cow Poke]

With such a slim majority, the Republicans are limited to doing things that pretty much all of their members can agree on. And shutting down the federal government over defunding the IRS probably isn't one of them.

I don't think there's any intention of shutting down the IRS. It's about dialing back the massive buildup of IRS agents that Biden's handlers ordered.

[Stoic]

I don't think there's any intention of shutting down the IRS. It's about dialing back the massive buildup of IRS agents that Biden's handlers ordered.

In order to accomplish that, they would have to get the Democrats to agree to it. And that would involve being willing to shut down the government over it. I don't think you can get all of the Republicans in the House to agree to that just to make it easier for people to get away with cheating on their taxes.

[Cow Poke]

In order to accomplish that, they would have to get the Democrats to agree to it. And that would involve being willing to shut down the government over it. I don't think you can get all of the Republicans in the House to agree to that just to make it easier for people to get away with cheating on their taxes.

You're making my point - the Republicans are a bunch of weak-willed lackies who love to talk big.

[Mountain Man]

For someone who doesn't understand probability, and is using motivated reasoning, it's a YUGE coincidence.

You're absolutely right, there is no connection between Jack Smith reading an article about conservative groups seeking tax exempt and then working with the IRS who illegally targeted conservative groups seeking tax exempt status. It's just a matter of probability.

Go on, tell us another one.

[Stoic]

You're absolutely right, there is no connection between Jack Smith reading an article about conservative groups seeking tax exempt and then working with the IRS who illegally targeted conservative groups seeking tax exempt status. It's just a matter of probability.

Go on, tell us another one.

If anyone else comes along who doesn't understand it, I'll be glad to explain it again. Talking to you is like talking to a brick wall.

[Stoic]

You're making my point - the Republicans are a bunch of weak-willed lackies who love to talk big.

It's the nature of politicians that they promise things they can't deliver. Even the Democrats do it.

[Cow Poke]

It's the nature of politicians that they promise things they can't deliver. Even the Democrats do it.

You made me amen a post of yours.

[Mountain Man]

If anyone else comes along who doesn't understand it, I'll be glad to explain it again. Talking to you is like talking to a brick wall.

No, I get it, Smith worked with the IRS in a targeting operation after reading an article about conservative groups, and the IRS had a 50/50 chance of targeting conservative groups. It's like they flipped a coin several hundred times, and it came up heads almost every time. That is completely plausible.