Announcement

Collapse

Civics 101 Guidelines

Want to argue about politics? Healthcare reform? Taxes? Governments? You've come to the right place!

Try to keep it civil though. The rules still apply here.
See more
See less

World War Three?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Russia appears to have lost 4 aircraft in a single day. An Su-34 and an Su-35 - both fighter jets - and two Mi-8 helicopters. That would be the biggest aircraft loss in a single day since the start of their illegal and genocidal invasion of Ukraine.


    Russia’s air force may have just suffered one of its worst days since the Ukraine war began. Unconfirmed reports say that four of its aircraft were shot down within Russian territory, in what would mark a significant coup for Ukraine.

    There are conflicting accounts about how many planes and helicopters may have been brought down inside the Russian region of Bryansk, but one Russian media outlet says that at least two combat aircraft – an Su-34 and an Su-35 – and two Mi-8 helicopters crashed.

    Ukraine has not confirmed its air defenses were involved in the reported downing of the Russian aircraft on Saturday, but says the aircraft “ran into some trouble.”

    Bryansk is on the border with Ukraine and has seen previous attacks blamed on Kyiv.

    Multiple crashes within Russian territory at the same time would be unprecedented. Some analysts believe Ukrainian air defenses may have been pushed forward as the Russian air force uses more “glide munitions” that can fire at targets from distance.


    The Ukrainian air force spokesman, Yuriy Ihnat, said Sunday that a Russian “strike air group attacked Ukraine from the north, from Bryansk Oblast. They do this almost every day. They carry out strikes with guided bombs.”


    In this instance, he said, “they ran into some trouble. They wanted to bomb our civilians, our peaceful people.” He went on to call it a “black day” for Russian aviation.

    Social media videos geolocated by CNN show at least one helicopter crashing near the town of Klintsy in Bryansk, which is 50 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

    Aleksandr Bogomaz, the Governor of Bryansk, confirmed that a helicopter had crashed, injuring one civilian, but gave no details on the cause.

    Another video, showing an aircraft coming down and a column of black smoke, has been geolocated to a village in Bryansk some 25 kilometers from Klintsy.

    The official Russian news agency TASS published video of one helicopter exploding in mid-air and confirmed that an Su-34 fighter had crashed, without indicating the cause.
    ‘Complete idiocy’


    There’s been no word from the Russian Defense Ministry on the incident, but one unofficial Russian Telegram channel described it as the worst day for Russian military aviation since March last year.

    The Russian newspaper Kommersant said that “a group of two Mi-8 helicopters and Su-34 and Su-35 fighters crashed in the Bryansk Oblast,” and suggested more helicopters might have been hit.

    It added: “The attackers are being sought on the ground and in the air.”

    Kommersant reported that the “fighters were to carry out a missile-bombing strike on targets in the Chernihiv Region of Ukraine, while the helicopters were to back them up, including to pick up the Su crews if they were shot down by enemy fire. All four machines did not return to the airfield. Their pilots were killed.”

    The Kommersant report cannot be independently verified. But other Russian sources have begun discussing the incident, with one popular Telegram channel that posts about the conflict saying: “We are talking about a carefully planned [Ukrainian] operation here.”

    Andrei Medvedev, a deputy on Moscow city council, said Saturday four aircraft had been lost and added: “Luhansk yesterday [a reference to missile strikes on the city], a strike on our air force today. Probing the defenses. Where it breaks. And strikes on the rear, infrastructure, and aviation.”

    Another Russian Telegram channel that posts daily about the conflict claimed the Ukrainians were “launching rockets from the Chernihiv region, coming almost to the very border.”

    Daniil Bezsonov, a Russian military blogger, posted Saturday that “The enemy most likely acted from an ambush by its air defense forces, which had moved into the border zone in advance, from which the distance would allow our air group to be hit. So the enemy most likely knew the route and time of our air group’s departure.”

    There was also consternation among Russian bloggers that one Mi-8 helcopter shot down had advanced jamming equipment.

    One Russian Telegram account said it was “complete idiocy” to send such a helicopter so close to Ukrainian defenses, saying “you had to be completely detached from reality” to send the specially-equipped Mi-8s into such a zone.

    Military analysts assess that Ukraine may have pushed its air defenses forward to the border in regions such as Chernihiv to combat the Russians’ growing use of bombs that can be launched from distance, almost acting as a missile.

    Ihnat said last month that the Russian military was converting FAB-500 high-explosive aerial bombs into cruise missiles. They are using these bombs “from a distance that is unreachable for Ukrainian air defense,” he said.

    Mykola Oleshchuk, the commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, has also suggested that the nature of the threat has changed.

    “The planes of the Russians do not enter the zone of damage of our air defenses, striking remotely at the front line and near-frontline cities,” he said on Telegram in April.

    Saturday’s events in Bryansk suggest that zone may now have been expanded into Russian territory.

    It also suggests – as a number of unofficial Russian sources have pointed out – that Ukraine in this case possessed detailed intelligence about the planned Russian mission. That may be as of much concern in Russia as the loss of four aircraft over Russian territory
    Numerous Russian news sources appear to be reporting on the losses as well so that should satisfy MM's need for Russian propaganda to tell him what to think.


    Just before I posted this I spotted an amusing article on the topic. Apparently the head of the Wagner mercenary group that Russia has been using in this invasion of Ukraine thinks that the Russians may have been the ones to shoot down their own aircraft.
    https://abcnews.go.com/International...craft-99316387
    The head of Russia's feared Wagner private army suggested Sunday that four Russian military aircraft that reportedly crashed in a region that borders Ukraine may have been shot down by Russia's own forces.

    Russian officials have not commented on reports in Russian conventional and social media that two fighter planes — an Su-34 and an Su-35 — and two military Mi-8 helicopters crashed in the Bryansk region on Saturday.

    State news agency Tass cited unspecified emergency services sources as saying the Su-34 and one helicopter crashed. Other sources, including Vladimir Rogov, the head of a Russian collaborationist organization in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia province, claimed four aircraft went down.

    All of them reportedly belonged to the same military air group.

    During the war, cross-border shelling has repeatedly hit Bryansk, which abuts Ukraine's Chernihiv and Sumy provinces. Authorities there claimed that unexplained explosions also derailed two freight trains and that an armed group penetrated the region from Ukraine in March and killed two civilians.

    The reported crashes raise concerns about Ukraine's capability to hit Russia and about Russia's military competence.

    A spokesman for Ukraine's air force, Yuriy Ihnat, denied Sunday that Ukraine was involved in downing the aircraft. In remarks on Ukrainian television, he suggested that Russia itself could be responsible, but he later walked back the remark, saying it was an attempt at joking.

    However, Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin offered a similar hypothesis.

    Four planes, — if you draw a circle in the places of their fall, it turns out that this circle has a diameter (and all of them lie exactly in a circle) of 40 kilometers (25 miles). ... Now go on the Internet and see what kind of air defense weapon could be in the center of this circle, and then build your own versions,” Prigozhin said on Telegram.

    Prigozhin, whose forces are in the thick of a grinding monthslong battle for the city of Bakhmut, clarified that he was not “in the know” about the situation. But he has repeatedly criticized the Russian military for its strategy in Ukraine and for allegedly failing to supply Wagner with the ammunition it needs in Bakhmut.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Gondwanaland View Post
      Numerous Russian news sources appear to be reporting on the losses as well so that should satisfy MM's need for Russian propaganda to tell him what to think.
      Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
      But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
      Than a fool in the eyes of God


      From "Fools Gold" by Petra

      Comment


      • I can see accidentally downing one of your own crafts, but four?

        I'm always still in trouble again

        "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
        "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
        "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

        Comment


        • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
          I can see accidentally downing one of your own crafts, but four?
          The most interesting part of the story, for me at least, is that Ukraine apparently had detailed intel about Russia's flight operations, which suggests leaks from within the Russian military itself. Either that, or our own intelligence agencies showed an unusual degree of competence.
          Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
          But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
          Than a fool in the eyes of God


          From "Fools Gold" by Petra

          Comment


          • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
            I can see accidentally downing one of your own crafts, but four?
            OTOH, why wouldn't Ukraine take credit even if it wasn't them?

            I'm always still in trouble again

            "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
            "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
            "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

            Comment


            • Wars and rumors of wars.

              NATO reaches back to Cold War past with first major defense plans

              BRUSSELS, May 18 (Reuters) - NATO will step back to the future at its Vilnius summit in July, with leaders set to approve thousands of pages of secret military plans that will detail for the first time since the Cold War how the alliance would respond to a Russian attack.

              The move signifies a fundamental shift - NATO had seen no need to draw up large-scale defence plans for decades, as it fought smaller wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and felt certain post-Soviet Russia no longer posed an existential threat.

              But with Europe's bloodiest war since 1945 raging just beyond its borders in Ukraine, the alliance is now warning that it must have all planning in place well before a conflict with a peer adversary such as Moscow might erupt.

              "The fundamental difference between crisis management and collective defence is this: It is not we but our adversary who determines the timeline," said Admiral Rob Bauer, one of NATO's top military officials. "We have to prepare for the fact that conflict can present itself at any time."

              By outlining what it calls its regional plans, NATO will also give nations guidance on how to upgrade their forces and logistics.

              "Allies will know exactly what forces and capabilities are needed, including where, what and how to deploy," said NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg about the highly classified documents that will, as in the Cold War, assign certain troops to the defence of certain regions.


              I wonder if those plans deal with global nuclear fallout.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by seanD View Post
                Wars and rumors of wars.

                NATO reaches back to Cold War past with first major defense plans

                BRUSSELS, May 18 (Reuters) - NATO will step back to the future at its Vilnius summit in July, with leaders set to approve thousands of pages of secret military plans that will detail for the first time since the Cold War how the alliance would respond to a Russian attack.

                The move signifies a fundamental shift - NATO had seen no need to draw up large-scale defence plans for decades, as it fought smaller wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and felt certain post-Soviet Russia no longer posed an existential threat.

                But with Europe's bloodiest war since 1945 raging just beyond its borders in Ukraine, the alliance is now warning that it must have all planning in place well before a conflict with a peer adversary such as Moscow might erupt.

                "The fundamental difference between crisis management and collective defence is this: It is not we but our adversary who determines the timeline," said Admiral Rob Bauer, one of NATO's top military officials. "We have to prepare for the fact that conflict can present itself at any time."

                By outlining what it calls its regional plans, NATO will also give nations guidance on how to upgrade their forces and logistics.

                "Allies will know exactly what forces and capabilities are needed, including where, what and how to deploy," said NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg about the highly classified documents that will, as in the Cold War, assign certain troops to the defence of certain regions.


                I wonder if those plans deal with global nuclear fallout.
                I endorse this upgrade. I would prefer it if the US pulled out of it, but I think the rest of NATO should have a plan since Putin is rather unpredictable.

                And his knowledge that NATO has drawn up new defense plans might make Putin think twice about any further ventures westward.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Ronson View Post

                  I endorse this upgrade. I would prefer it if the US pulled out of it, but I think the rest of NATO should have a plan since Putin is rather unpredictable.

                  And his knowledge that NATO has drawn up new defense plans might make Putin think twice about any further ventures westward.
                  I honestly don't know why anyone is under the impression they're going to keep pushing westward past Ukraine. If a person thinks they're going to be defeated and have to run back to Russia with their tail tucked, then obviously that's not possible. I personally think Ukraine is going to eventually be forced to surrender, and though I don't think Putin has any intentions of activity passed Ukraine, even if he does, Russia is going to need sometime to recoup their losses and damages before they can even think about further expanding. But most folks believe the former is going to happen, so I don't quite know why they fear Putin will keep expanding or how that's even possible.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by seanD View Post

                    I honestly don't know why anyone is under the impression they're going to keep pushing westward past Ukraine. If a person thinks they're going to be defeated and have to run back to Russia with their tail tucked, then obviously that's not possible. I personally think Ukraine is going to eventually be forced to surrender, and though I don't think Putin has any intentions of activity passed Ukraine, even if he does, Russia is going to need sometime to recoup their losses and damages before they can even think about further expanding. But most folks believe the former is going to happen, so I don't quite know why they fear Putin will keep expanding or how that's even possible.
                    I certainly don't know what Putin's plans are. All anyone can do is guess. My guess is that he wants Crimea, first and foremost, and a piece of east Ukraine as a land bridge. But he also recently made decrees regarding Moldova and made threats to Lithuania (the latter requiring some NATO rethinking). If I was a European leader, I wouldn't want to underestimate his ambitions. Best to expect the worst and prepare for it.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Ronson View Post

                      I certainly don't know what Putin's plans are. All anyone can do is guess. My guess is that he wants Crimea, first and foremost, and a piece of east Ukraine as a land bridge. But he also recently made decrees regarding Moldova and made threats to Lithuania (the latter requiring some NATO rethinking). If I was a European leader, I wouldn't want to underestimate his ambitions. Best to expect the worst and prepare for it.
                      Or this could be an admission that NATO doesn't really believe Ukraine has a chance (I know that, and I'm sure they're a whole lot smarter than I am and have a whole more information than I do). And since they know Ukraine doesn't stand a chance, they're unsure what Putin will do after Ukraine surrenders. Or they're in fact planning to attack Russia in an offensive strike in the aftermath and using the Ukraine war to try and weaken them beforehand.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by seanD View Post

                        I honestly don't know why anyone is under the impression they're going to keep pushing westward past Ukraine.
                        Yeah, people said the same about Crimea when he took Crimea, look where that ended up.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Gondwanaland View Post

                          Yeah, people said the same about Crimea when he took Crimea, look where that ended up.
                          Then I guess you also think Ukraine's going to lose.

                          Comment


                          • One interesting comment I heard recently from a nuclear physicist, is that nuclear weapons require a significant amount of high-quality maintenance to continue to function. You can't just pull one off the shelf that's 50 years old and expect that it will work. The US spends a lot of money keeping its nuclear weaponry maintained and in functioning order.

                            We've seen in the Ukraine war that Russian military equipment in general is not generally in a great state. We've seen that they have been neglecting maintenance on all military equipment apparently because their government is so corrupt that funds allocated equipment maintenance were never spent on it, and instead were syphoned away through corruption. As a result, this person viewed it as unlikely that Russia has any currently functioning nuclear weapons.
                            "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                            "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                            "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by seanD View Post

                              Then I guess you also think Ukraine's going to lose.
                              What rectal orifice of yours did you yank that one out of, Russkie?

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                                One interesting comment I heard recently from a nuclear physicist, is that nuclear weapons require a significant amount of high-quality maintenance to continue to function. You can't just pull one off the shelf that's 50 years old and expect that it will work. The US spends a lot of money keeping its nuclear weaponry maintained and in functioning order.

                                We've seen in the Ukraine war that Russian military equipment in general is not generally in a great state. We've seen that they have been neglecting maintenance on all military equipment apparently because their government is so corrupt that funds allocated equipment maintenance were never spent on it, and instead were syphoned away through corruption. As a result, this person viewed it as unlikely that Russia has any currently functioning nuclear weapons.
                                Perhaps, the ones in the silos. It's the ones on the submarines that I worry about. Those are not neglected, and neither are the subs. In fact, they need someone on board at all times to triangulate because the ship's movements require constant adjustment.

                                nuke.gif

                                Comment

                                Related Threads

                                Collapse

                                Topics Statistics Last Post
                                Started by seer, Yesterday, 11:06 AM
                                3 responses
                                122 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post Sam
                                by Sam
                                 
                                Started by carpedm9587, Yesterday, 07:03 AM
                                16 responses
                                93 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post Mountain Man  
                                Started by rogue06, 05-17-2024, 09:51 AM
                                0 responses
                                21 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post rogue06
                                by rogue06
                                 
                                Started by seer, 05-16-2024, 05:00 PM
                                0 responses
                                32 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post seer
                                by seer
                                 
                                Started by seer, 05-16-2024, 11:43 AM
                                225 responses
                                910 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post carpedm9587  
                                Working...
                                X