World War Three?

[Ronson]

Or this could be an admission that NATO doesn't really believe Ukraine has a chance (I know that, and I'm sure they're a whole lot smarter than I am and have a whole more information than I do). And since they know Ukraine doesn't stand a chance, they're unsure what Putin will do after Ukraine surrenders. Or they're in fact planning to attack Russia in an offensive strike in the aftermath and using the Ukraine war to try and weaken them beforehand.

I'm pretty sure NATO by charter is not allowed to make preemptive strikes.

[Starlight]

Perhaps, the ones in the silos. It's the ones on the submarines that I worry about. Those are not neglected, and neither are the subs. In fact, they need someone on board at all times to triangulate because the ship's movements require constant adjustment.

Sounds like you're thinking of the missile carrying the warhead. I'm talking about the warhead itself. Nuclear weapons aren't like normal weapons in terms of exploding on contact, they're complex devices and if you drop one on the ground it will work about as well as your computer will after dropping it (the US infamously dropped one by mistake from a plane over North Carolina and it hit the ground, spoiler alert: It didn't go boom then or ever after). Having the missile take the weapon to the right target doesn't do much if the warhead doesn't explode. The warhead is an extremely complex device, and the US has numerous facilities and scientific teams dedicated to running advanced physics simulations of the function of the warheads (now that they aren't allowed to actually test any) and make sure the devices that are deployed should work as intended. IMO there's almost no chance that the corruption in Russia hasn't diverted money away from this - it's the most obvious thing to steal money from because nobody will know whether the nukes are working or not anyway since they aren't used, so the theft of the maintenance money goes unnoticed.

[seanD]

I'm pretty sure NATO by charter is not allowed to make preemptive strikes.

I don't mean they're going to officially declare war and then send troops into Ukraine to face Russian troops or directly fire missiles at Russia unprovoked. I mean via escalation. You have reports almost daily of Russia and NATO aircraft intercepting each other or coming into close contact. You had Russia downing a US drone awhile ago. Escalation can happen any number of thousands of ways, whether intentional provocation or unintentional.

[rogue06]

One interesting comment I heard recently from a nuclear physicist, is that nuclear weapons require a significant amount of high-quality maintenance to continue to function. You can't just pull one off the shelf that's 50 years old and expect that it will work. The US spends a lot of money keeping its nuclear weaponry maintained and in functioning order.

We've seen in the Ukraine war that Russian military equipment in general is not generally in a great state. We've seen that they have been neglecting maintenance on all military equipment apparently because their government is so corrupt that funds allocated equipment maintenance were never spent on it, and instead were syphoned away through corruption. As a result, this person viewed it as unlikely that Russia has any currently functioning nuclear weapons.

FWIU, such obsolete, unmaintained weapons could still make for extremely powerful neutron bombs

[Starlight]

FWIU, such obsolete, unmaintained weapons could still make for extremely powerful neutron bombs

No, they'd be extremely weak neutron bombs if they went off at all because they're not designed to enhance neutron emission like a real neutron bomb would be. And popular imagination vastly overrates the harmfulness of neutron bombs anyway, since air stops neutrons, which is why nobody bothers with them.

[Ronson]

Sounds like you're thinking of the missile carrying the warhead.

Yes.

I'm talking about the warhead itself. Nuclear weapons aren't like normal weapons in terms of exploding on contact, they're complex devices and if you drop one on the ground it will work about as well as your computer will after dropping it (the US infamously dropped one by mistake from a plane over North Carolina and it hit the ground, spoiler alert: It didn't go boom then or ever after). Having the missile take the weapon to the right target doesn't do much if the warhead doesn't explode. The warhead is an extremely complex device, and the US has numerous facilities and scientific teams dedicated to running advanced physics simulations of the function of the warheads (now that they aren't allowed to actually test any) and make sure the devices that are deployed should work as intended. IMO there's almost no chance that the corruption in Russia hasn't diverted money away from this - it's the most obvious thing to steal money from because nobody will know whether the nukes are working or not anyway since they aren't used, so the theft of the maintenance money goes unnoticed.

My point remains, though, that their submarine fleet is something that has to work in every facet, and I cannot imagine that everything but the warheads are maintained. A silo is a single-function location and I can imagine visits being cancelled, money diverted, and neglect going unnoticed. Not so on a sub.

[Mountain Man]

Rather belatedly, The New York Time, of all publications, admits that Ukraine really does have a Nazi problem, although the writer attempts to dance around the obvious by seeming to imply, unconvincingly, that these aren't "for real" Nazi's despite the use of Nazi iconography:

[Pictures of Neo-Nazi patches] threatens to reinforce Mr. Putin’s propaganda and give fuel to his false claims that Ukraine must be “de-Nazified” — a position that ignores the fact that Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is Jewish. More broadly, Ukraine’s ambivalence about these symbols, and sometimes even its acceptance of them, risks giving new, mainstream life to icons that the West has spent more than a half-century trying to eliminate.

… So far, the imagery has not eroded international support for the war. It has, however, left diplomats, Western journalists and advocacy groups in a difficult position: Calling attention to the iconography risks playing into Russian propaganda. Saying nothing allows it to spread.

Glenn Greenwald notes in a Twitter post the rather curious double standard at play here:

In the US, anyone with a MAGA hat is deemed a Nazi and must be destroyed.

But liberals see actual, real-deal Nazis in Ukraine and want to fund and arm them.

Perhaps there may be long-term dangers to flooding Nazi battalions with advanced weaponry?

Original article is blocked by a paywall, so here's Breitbart talking about the article:

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/202...ew-york-times/

[seanD]

Rather belatedly, The New York Time, of all publications, admits that Ukraine really does have a Nazi problem, although the writer attempts to dance around the obvious by seeming to imply, unconvincingly, that these aren't "for real" Nazi's despite the use of Nazi iconography:

[Pictures of Neo-Nazi patches] threatens to reinforce Mr. Putin’s propaganda and give fuel to his false claims that Ukraine must be “de-Nazified” — a position that ignores the fact that Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is Jewish. More broadly, Ukraine’s ambivalence about these symbols, and sometimes even its acceptance of them, risks giving new, mainstream life to icons that the West has spent more than a half-century trying to eliminate.

… So far, the imagery has not eroded international support for the war. It has, however, left diplomats, Western journalists and advocacy groups in a difficult position: Calling attention to the iconography risks playing into Russian propaganda. Saying nothing allows it to spread.

Glenn Greenwald notes in a Twitter post the rather curious double standard at play here:

In the US, anyone with a MAGA hat is deemed a Nazi and must be destroyed.

But liberals see actual, real-deal Nazis in Ukraine and want to fund and arm them.

Perhaps there may be long-term dangers to flooding Nazi battalions with advanced weaponry?

Original article is blocked by a paywall, so here's Breitbart talking about the article:

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/202...ew-york-times/

It's such an absurd paradox with leftists willing to support actual nazis, yet so quick to throw around accusations of nazis at everyone in a country that has few actual nazis in existence.

I'm guessing most conservatives knew this, but some were suffering a case of cognitive dissonance. Leftists on the other hand are living in a totally upside down delusional world, so there's no telling what sort of reality they believe and are driven by.

[rogue06]

Original article is blocked by a paywall, so...:

smiley shhh.gif ^{rogue powaz activate}

[Mountain Man]

The latest news: The US is running low on munitions to send to Ukraine, so Joe wants to send cluster bombs despite the fact that they are imprecise weapons that cause tremendous collateral damage and are banned by over 100 countries, including members of NATO. In fact, Joe loudly criticized Israel for using them against Palestine forces. But it's okay because Joe says Ukraine promises they'll be careful.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/202...bs-to-ukraine/

[seanD]

The latest news: The US is running low on munitions to send to Ukraine, so Joe wants to send cluster bombs despite the fact that they are imprecise weapons that cause tremendous collateral damage and are banned by over 100 countries, including members of NATO. In fact, Joe loudly criticized Israel for using them against Palestine forces. But it's okay because Joe says Ukraine promises they'll be careful.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/202...bs-to-ukraine/

I'm even sure what that hopes to achieve other than just ticking off the Russians and making them even more belligerent.

What has me concerned is the idea that a desperate Zelensky might order a false flag on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in order to get NATO involved.

[Mountain Man]

I'm even sure what that hopes to achieve other than just ticking off the Russians and making them even more belligerent.

What has me concerned is the idea that a desperate Zelensky might order a false flag on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in order to get NATO involved.

There are a few angles to the story:

First, Joe has effectively told the world that the United States' ability to defend ourselves has been compromised.

Second, if things are going to so well for Ukraine as we keep being told by the media, then why is the White House suddenly wanting to resort to sending them controversial weapons?

Third, if Ukraine is willing to use cluster bombs against Russia, they can kiss their already slim chances of joining NATO goodbye.

[Mountain Man]

Yet another Ukrainian politician has been caught skimming money from the generous donations that Joe is pouring into that corrupt country. This time it's Defense chief Oleksiy Reznikov who was the brains behind the much hyped Ukrainian counter offensive that by all accounts has been an utter failure:

If you have watched World War Reddit, and understand the basic premise of Ukraine as a U.S. money laundering operation, then you likely understand why and how the recipient side of the $100 billion U.S. aid package is filled with graft and corruption.

Each Ukraine official who is caught using the money for their personal enrichment, is replaced by another person who engages in the same activity. Successful anti-corruption efforts in Ukraine are futile, because everything attached to the U.S. created Ukraine government is corrupt.

A corrupt minister is caught stealing and skimming money for his/her own benefit. The corrupt minister is fired and replaced with another corrupt minister, and then the clock starts ticking until the replacement makes a mistake and gets caught doing the same thing as his predecessor.

The corrupt activity in Kyiv is identical to the corrupt activity in Washington DC, because it is created by the same corrupt process. Wash – Rinse – Repeat.

----------

Kyiv Post has detailed the latest scandal as follows:

The latest scandal was exposed by Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Nikolov who, citing sources at the State Customs Service of Ukraine, reported that the Ministry of Defense had acquired 233,000 winter jackets for $20 million from a Turkish firm.

Documentation from customs regarding one shipment unveiled a startling increase in cost for a batch of 4,900 jackets en route from Turkey to Ukraine.

The price had tripled, soaring from $142,000 to $421,000 (a per-unit rise from $29 to $86). Furthermore, it was revealed that the jackets, despite being marketed as winter wear, turned out to be lightweight. (link)

https://theconservativetreehouse.com...ruption-probe/

Sounds suspiciously like how the Pentagon does accounting.

[rogue06]

Crooked politicians or industrialists pocketing money meant to fight a war is hardly anything new much less unique to Ukraine.

[seanD]

Crooked politicians or industrialists pocketing money meant to fight a war is hardly anything new much less unique to Ukraine.

A "crooked politician" is not the same as sending tens of billions to a notoriously corrupt country, one where Hunter and the Big Guy established part of their criminal legacy. It's like night and day. We would expect this incident not to be an usual case, but par for the course. Perhaps he wasn't giving his share of the cut to those at the top so they ousted him.