Trump/Biden polls: significant new development

[Christian3]

You apparently haven't been paying attention since at least 2015.

Maybe longer.

I have been paying attention; maybe you haven't.

[Mountain Man]

Some were, mostly early into the campaign season. The closer to election day the predictions got, the less they were wrong

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a7399671.html

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/polls...b0e80b02cc2a94

Hillary Clinton's odds of winning the presidency rose from 78% last week to 91% Monday before Election Day, according to CNN's Political Prediction Market.

Clinton's odds have always been much greater than her opponent, Republican nominee Donald Trump, according to the prediction market, although they had dropped last week.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/polit...ump/index.html

https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/...n-801634371744

With hours to go before Americans vote, Democrat Hillary Clinton has about a 90 percent chance of defeating Republican Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1322J1

Clinton's odds of securing the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency at more than 95 percent, and by a margin of 118 Electoral College votes. It is the second week in a row that the project has estimated her odds so high.

The results mirror other Electoral College projections, some of which estimate Clinton's chance of winning at around 90 percent.

https://www.newsweek.com/hillary-cli...ndslide-510362

I think you get the point.

[Whateverman]

I have been paying attention

Your observation a few posts above says differently.

[Mountain Man]

By question to you is: how do you think accurate polling numbers can be achieved when one side of the political spectrum considers you a reprobate if aren't on their side, and might even retaliate against you if they discover this about you? To me, this would explain the inconsistency with the high poll numbers in favor of Biden (folks may just be scared to admit support for Trump) when voter enthusiasm about Biden is so low.

As I've noted elsewhere, saying, "I prefer this candidate over that candidate," is far different than actually going out and voting.

[Cow Poke]

I think you get the point.

I've been trying to find the screenshots I took election night where the "speedometer" graphic was showing Hillary would win by a landslide, then at the last minute, totally reversed.

[Mountain Man]

I've been trying to find the screenshots I took election night where the "speedometer" graphic was showing Hillary would win by a landslide, then at the last minute, totally reversed.

Here's a screenshot of the New York Times election night tracker I took around midnight:

Winning.jpg

[Ronson]

Terrible news. I had no idea that the average American adult's IQ had dropped so much.

According to studies, they've been declining since the 1970s and have dropped an average seven points per generation since. So Generation X is about seven points higher than Gen Y, who are about seven points higher than Gen Z. I can see it in my kids and grandkids. Scary.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2018-...res-1970s.html

[shunyadragon]

Terrible news. I had no idea that the average American adult's IQ had dropped so much.

That was demonstrated when Trump won in 2018.

[Cow Poke]

That was demonstrated when Trump won in 2018.

Persons of just a little higher IQ realize it was 2016.

[Mountain Man]

Persons of just a little higher IQ realize it was 2016.

Technically, shuny is right but only because Trump is always winning.

[Cow Poke]

Technically, shuny is right but only because Trump is always winning.

Laughing.

[Reepicheep]

Another significant change to the presidential race. The combined consensus of Cook, Sabatos, Politico, and Inside Elections now give Biden 278 electoral college votes. Since only 270 votes are necessary for a majority, the consensus is that Biden will win.

There are an additional 55 electoral college votes which are classified as tossups. Biden is leading in these states as well:

+11 Biden - Nebraska District 2
+6 Biden - Florida
+3 Biden - North Carolina
+2 Biden - Arizona

Looking at the United States as a whole, Biden is +9. Trump will have to lower this to no more than Biden +3 by election day to have any chance of winning the electoral college.

[Reepicheep]

Another significant poll was released today which has Biden +15 over Trump. The poll, which was done by Quinnipiac University, is rated B+ by the FiveThirtyEight website.

The last time a presidential candidate had this large of a lead in the polls was way back in 1996 (Clinton vs. Dole).

"Yes, there's still 16 weeks until Election Day, but this is a very unpleasant real time look at what the future could be for President Trump. There is no upside, no silver lining, no encouraging trend hidden somewhere in this survey for the president." - Tim Malloy, Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst

I've been following the state level polls fairly closely, and Trump could still be victorious in the Electoral College if he somehow manages to take Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, but this is currently looking very unlikely (winning these four states led to Trump's 2016 victory):

+9 Biden - Michigan
+8 Biden - Pennsylvania
+8 Biden - Wisconsin
+7 Biden - Florida

[Reepicheep]

Another significant poll was released today which has Biden +15 over Trump. The poll, which was done by Quinnipiac University, is rated B+ by the FiveThirtyEight website.

An even more significant poll was released today. The poll was done by ABC News and the Washington Post, and is rated A+ by the FiveThirtyEight website, so obviously the poll is reliable.

The poll results:

+15 Biden - among registered voters
+10 Biden - among likely voters

By way of comparison, at this time four years ago, Clinton was +3 over Trump.

I've heard no suggestions that there is any possibility of the Republicans taking back the house. The current polls suggest that Biden will win the Electoral College vote by a landslide. The only unknown at this point is whether the Democrats can take back the senate, a race which appears to be roughly 50/50 at the moment, with perhaps a slight edge going to the Democrats.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...y-by-15-points

[Reepicheep]

Fox News released a poll today, rated A- by FiveThirtyEight, which has Biden +8. Trump appeared on Fox News Sunday today, and he was not pleased with the poll. In Trump's words:

Trump also claimed that his campaign has internal polls showing him

https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...-im-not-losing