Will COVID 19 return?

[Sparko]

Well even though states have been opening up for weeks now, the new daily cases are still dropping. I hope that's a good sign.

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[rogue06]

ETA: I have to admit, I am surprised by your response. I would expect this kind of response from MM, Pix, Sean, Rogue, and Sparko. It never crossed my mind to expect it from you. I realize even expressing that violates my "last word" comment, so I'll drop off now.

Your mother was a hamster and your father smelled of elderberries.

[rogue06]

Well even though states have been opening up for weeks now, the new daily cases are still dropping. I hope that's a good sign.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]44667[/ATTACH]

It is but some keep wanting to move the goal posts.

At first the quarantining was done to flatten the curve. To keep hospitals from having to face a tsunami of sick patients. Well, the curve was flattened and that really isn't the threat any longer.

But then we were told that we needed to stay quarantined until more testing was done. Well, we did that. Still need to do more but we now have one of the higher rates of people tested (IIRC we rank around 9th in the world of countries with a significant population).

But then they told us that we need to stay quarantined until a vaccine is developed. Of course while some preliminary results on a vaccine is promising it is conceivable that we never get a vaccine -- and even if we do that might take a year or longer.

[shunyadragon]

Well even though states have been opening up for weeks now, the new daily cases are still dropping. I hope that's a good sign.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]44667[/ATTACH]

Sort of good news, but not over yet. The trend was as I predicted. The peak period would between about April 15th and MAy 15 centered on May 1, but based on the trends of other countries and regions of the world that have passed original peak all show a gradual decline, and a second or third peak period following the the initial peak. China. South Korea, New York City are examples of this trend.

[Sparko]

Sort of good news, but not over yet. The trend was as I predicted. The peak period would between about April 15th and MAy 15 centered on May 1, but based on the trends of other countries and regions of the world that have passed original peak all show a gradual decline, and a second or third peak period following the the initial peak. China. South Korea, New York City are examples of this trend.

well you can just toss China completely out of the data pool. They under reported and then just stopped testing altogether and claimed they had stopped the virus.

[shunyadragon]

well you can just toss China completely out of the data pool. They under reported and then just stopped testing altogether and claimed they had stopped the virus.

Yes China under reported the numbers, but It still fits the curves all around the world. I did not base my prediction on China alone. China did acknowledge that the cases and fatalities were underestimated by about 50%. I based on the infection patterns of previous pandemics, and countries and regions other than China. My prediction still stands that there will be one or more humps of increased cases and deaths in the USA and other countries roughly in the order their COVID 19 started. There are smaller countries that have a more homogenous uniform populations that show a more uniform bell curve such as Australia and New Zealand.

Also New York City also found over 5,000+ fatalities not counted before, but it did not change the shape of the curve.

[shunyadragon]

It is but some keep wanting to move the goal posts.

At first the quarantining was done to flatten the curve. To keep hospitals from having to face a tsunami of sick patients. Well, the curve was flattened and that really isn't the threat any longer.

But then we were told that we needed to stay quarantined until more testing was done. Well, we did that. Still need to do more but we now have one of the higher rates of people tested (IIRC we rank around 9th in the world of countries with a significant population).

But then they told us that we need to stay quarantined until a vaccine is developed. Of course while some preliminary results on a vaccine is promising it is conceivable that we never get a vaccine -- and even if we do that might take a year or longer.

I don't move goal posts, but my prediction was accurate concerning the peak of pandemic and gradual decline. It is not over yet by along shot. We will have a long gradual recovery with one or more humps of cases and fatalities in recovery like other countries and regions that were infected earlier. It will be a painful and messy recovery, and yes we can and are making it worse.

[Roy]

Well even though states have been opening up for weeks now, the new daily cases are still dropping. I hope that's a good sign.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]44667[/ATTACH]

They're dropping overall due to an even greater drop in some parts of the US, notably NY and NJ. But in Illinois and Texas the daily number of cases is still increasing. Opening up Texas (if it's in lockdown) could be a major mistake.

It shouldn't be lockdown everywhere or nowhere, but lockdown where cases are found and not where they aren't. But to do that requires testing a much higher proportion of the population.

[Roy]

In my Church situation, I realize I have to be much more reserved, and I manage somehow to do that pretty effectively. Sometimes I tell myself "well, just pretend you're in the Church environment when you're on Tweb", but the Church environment doesn't any of the anti-Christian bigots we have here.

Anti-Christian bigots?

You're on a forum where when some-one says all atheists must be dishonest, not one Christian disagrees.

[lilpixieofterror]

No, don't drop off -- I've told the other mods that I don't seem to fit here - I'm too brusque. I say what I think, and expect others to "get it". It's on me. My background has been military/police/oilfield - and I'm used to being around really tough cookies.

In my Church situation, I realize I have to be much more reserved, and I manage somehow to do that pretty effectively. Sometimes I tell myself "well, just pretend you're in the Church environment when you're on Tweb", but the Church environment doesn't any of the anti-Christian bigots we have here.

It's me.



(and you've never kept your word before on "last word", so why start now?*)




*that was a JOKING comment, albeit there's a lot of truth to it.

Yeah, most civilians are pretty touchy.

[lilpixieofterror]

Anti-Christian bigots?

You're on a forum where when some-one says all atheists must be dishonest, not one Christian disagrees.

Not all atheist, are dishonest, evil, or liars.

Feel better now?

[carpedm9587]

Anti-Christian bigots?

You're on a forum where when some-one says all atheists must be dishonest, not one Christian disagrees.

The "atheists = evil" mindset has a long history. I doubt that objecting to it is going to change it any time soon.

However, I do find myself in some amount of sympathy with CP's observation. I find that too many atheists are more anti-theists than a-theists. They take a condescending, hostile, dismissive position towards Christianity (or any other theism).

Our position is challenging enough as is, without adding that to the mix. When you think about it from their position, we hold a belief that essentially says the one thing they hold most dear in their lives is unreal - a kind of "figment of their imagination." If your entire identity is caught up in one thing and someone comes along and says, "umm...hey bud...that doesn't actually exist," I suspect your response would instantly be defensive. If they piled on the derision and condescension that so many atheists posting here regularly pile on, that can only magnify the effect.

IMO, a lot of atheists need to do a little soul (pun intended) searching. Is it really necessary to be so derisive? Is it possible to take a higher road?

ETA: I have to admit to some wry amusement in noting that a new thread was started in Christianity 201 asking "can there be an honest atheist?" I guess the "our beliefs are fundamentally insulting to them" thing swings both ways. When it is a question if people who believe differently than you can even be honest, the ground is set for a self-perpetuating denial of any reality but the one you have settled on. After all, anyone disagreeing is simply being "dishonest." That actually fits in with, and goes a long way to explaining, the continual stream of "disingenuity" and "dishonest" and "hypocrite" assertions made by many of the respondents.

[EvoUK]

ETA: I have to admit to some wry amusement in noting that a new thread was started in Christianity 201 asking "can there be an honest atheist?" I guess the "our beliefs are fundamentally insulting to them" thing swings both ways.

I obviously have no reason to be looking at those forums so missed that thread - just checked it out now, hilarious.

I know what you mean about the dismissive atheists you get out there though, which is why I basically limit myself to Civics these days. I'm fascinated by how the 'other side' see the world and what leads them to conclusions I vehemently disagree with. Getting out of my 'comfort zone' to see and interact with opposing views - importantly in an environment when I am the minority view and the right-wing talking points don't get jumped on by a majority of posters - means I get to challenge and test my own views and political beliefs.

But as I don't share their religious beliefs (and frankly they don't really mean much to me so long as they aren't forced upon me) I don't tend to find that side of it particularly interesting - at least not any more. I suppose many atheists do go through the stereotype 'angry atheist' phase, especially if they come from a religious background. Fortunately I don't come from that background - we sang hymns and said the Lords Prayer when I was at school (CoE is still a thing in the UK), but I was never religious and it was always sort of treated as something some people went in for, but if you weren't one of them then largely irrelevant. Much like my Hindu, Jewish, Sikh or Muslim mates growing up.

[shunyadragon]

Anti-Christian bigots?

You're on a forum where when some-one says all atheists must be dishonest, not one Christian disagrees.

This and other disingenuous accusations like lying about God's existence, against atheists arise from Paul's statements that indicate that all humans know God exists, but some deny it.

[Cow Poke]

Anti-Christian bigots?

Yes. I've never considered you one, but we certainly have some here.

You're on a forum where when some-one says all atheists must be dishonest, not one Christian disagrees.

I hereby disagree. Wholeheartedly and without reservation. Better?