We have passed the peak

[simplicio]

We have passed the peak, according to the administration. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ak/ar-BB12HjgM

However, not all agree: https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/...onavirus-toll/

So we have two assessments of the situation. Will Trump's assessment be walked back in ten days?

[Mountain Man]

Trump's assessment...

It's not "Trump's assessment", you idiot, it's the assessment of the advisers he's been listening to since the first day this whole mess started.

[Sparko]

And the peak will vary by state and region. Cuomo said it looks like NYC has reached their peak.

Trump has said over and over, that they will look at each state and region separately and he has put together the advisory committee to help with deciding what to open and when. And it will be up to the governors too.

[mikewhitney]

We have passed the peak, according to the administration. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ak/ar-BB12HjgM

However, not all agree: https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/...onavirus-toll/

So we have two assessments of the situation. Will Trump's assessment be walked back in ten days?

Wow. How odd that Microsoft News would be quoting people saying we need the fantasy-vaccine. Where we go for unbiased news.

[Juvenal]

And the peak will vary by state and region. Cuomo said it looks like NYC has reached their peak.

IHME estimates peak resource use for the nation was on April 10.

[KingsGambit]

IHME estimates peak resource use for the nation was on April 10.

But I note the disclaimer: "COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020". That seems slightly less likely by the day; note the heavy backlash in Michigan. (I don't think Trump's pronouncements are going to have much of a real effect on that one way or the other.)

[Sparko]

IHME estimates peak resource use for the nation was on April 10.

I am not sure I trust them, their numbers have been off all along. But we might be over the hump if you take an average of everything, but since NY is the overwhelming driving number in that, it works out to be the same as I said: It varies by region and NYC seems to have reached the peak.

[oxmixmudd]

We have passed the peak, according to the administration. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ak/ar-BB12HjgM

However, not all agree: https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/...onavirus-toll/

So we have two assessments of the situation. Will Trump's assessment be walked back in ten days?

If so, is it possible for all to keep in mind it is a peak reached only by the rigors of stay at home and a shut down economy, a peak that is less than 1/10th what it could have been without it, and a peak that will not remain a peak if we do not wait until the case count is sufficiently low, and the testing capabilities sufficiently high to prevent a return to unrestrained exponential spread.

[firstfloor]

The peak tells you that physical distancing works to reduce the infection rate. When you go back to pre-virus normality, the curve will bend upwards again. You should expect 4 weeks or so of good times before it goes bad again. Repeat for about 2 years.

[Sparko]

The peak tells you that physical distancing works to reduce the infection rate. When you go back to pre-virus normality, the curve will bend upwards again. You should expect 4 weeks or so of good times before it goes bad again. Repeat for about 2 years.

That would be assuming no vaccine.

[firstfloor]

That would be assuming no vaccine.

Ordinarily, it takes 10 years to develop a new vaccine. I think we are going to live with this for a long time yet.

[Bill the Cat]

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...rong-1.8691031

[oxmixmudd]

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...rong-1.8691031

I don't think so. I believe if we get creative and yield to the reality rather than demand we go back to pre-covid 'normal', we can find ways of living with this until there is a cure that is not "just let all the poor folks that can't fight it off die". We have a lot of tools at our disposal previous generations simply did not have that will enable us to cope.

[simplicio]

It's not "Trump's assessment", you idiot, it's the assessment of the advisers he's been listening to since the first day this whole mess started.

The advisers Trump relies on need to toe the party line if they want to keep their jobs.

[Juvenal]

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...rong-1.8691031

Mitigation will give us time to develop a vaccine.