Don't Test, Don't Tell

[myth]

Answer a simple question, use a little common sense. What's the actual number of cases? Equal or higher to that of the reported number of cases?

You answer my question first. Why do you think you know more the people who study this for a living?

[demi-conservative]

You answer my question first. Why do you think you know more the people who study this for a living?

Because by common sense and simple logic they are wrong. Deal with the logic, stop arguing from authority, stop mindlessly parroting.

[myth]

They're making estimates by factoring this in, you moron.

OF COURSE the number of infected is higher than what's reported. They have to look at the infection rate, extrapolate based on the known number of cases, and make an estimate. Why is it that you think they're not doing this at all? Your problem is you're assuming that people with PhDs and MDs, who do this professionally, are not nearly as bright as all-might Demi. Get over yourself and stop assuming you're smarter than everyone else.

Also, you've failed to provide a convincing argument for why I should believe you over educated and experienced epidemiologists.

[demi-conservative]

They're making estimates by factoring this in, you moron.

Why is it that you think they're not doing this at all?

Only very recently have they started factoring it in but for most of the time they've been trumpeting the 'crude' fatality rate before factoring it in.

Also, you've failed to provide a convincing argument for why I should believe you over educated and experienced epidemiologists.

Many of them started out by using Chinese data to make their authoritative pronouncement, when everyone knows that garbage in, garbage out and the Chinese data could not be trusted. These ''''''''''''experts''''''''''''' started out with nonsense and have been continuing ever since.

[demi-conservative]

Use simple logic. The USA had one of the highest fatality rate of around 6% for about 200+ cases*. But we can estimate very well that because of limited testing the number of cases should be at least a hundred times that, so the fatality should be greatly overstated by around at least a hundred times.

If you want to insist on '''''''''''experts''''''''''' like a good sheep, demi is not going to bother any more.

*has been dropping significantly with testing

[demi-conservative]

Fauci et al.

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.

If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105...elated_article

Alright, in under 30 seconds searching demi found an expert opinion by DA GREAT EXPERT Anthony Fauci in one of the MOST PRESTIGIOUS medical PEER-REVIEWED journals, happy now?

[JimboJSR]

I know I shouldn't feed the troll, but others might be interested.

POINT 1: Fauci states that Covid-19's mortality may be less than 1%, and certainly better than the 9% of SARS - but this is neither evidence nor proof that the mortality rate is only 0.1%, and he doesn't claim anything that specific, because he can't.

POINT 2: Covid-19 is extremely transmissable, with R0 rates about double that of swine flu. This means it spreads quickly and widely, infecting a very large proportion of the population. Even if the mortality rate is low, it still means: a) a great many people dying (in the UK, 0.1% mortality of 50 million infected is a heck of a lot to happen in a few months; b) a great many more people get a pneumonia that needs admission to hospital (if you're hypoxic, you NEED admission,t his isn't anything to do with patients "panicking"; and c) health services rapidly being overwhelmed causing increased morbitity and mortality in the non-covid patients who can't access the care they need but can't get cos the hospitals are completely full and overflowing of covid cases.

POINT 3: Demi does not like experts. Demi needs no experts. Demi knoweth better than experts because Demi hath that might weapon, COMMON SENSE! Common Sense crusheth reason, crusheth data, and crusheth that which hallucinating doctors claim to see with thine own eyes! Common Sense lets Demi stride confidently into a hospital full of moronic medical teams and pathetic patients, whose bilateral pneumonia requiring oxygenation and ventilation is merely a psychosomatic manifestation of psychological weakness! Common Sense tells Demi that actually all this is nothing to worry about, and they should all just go home and be fine. Or maybe die. One or the other.

Demi, my previous offer to you is open. Feel free to come to Scotland in the next few weeks, see how our completely remodelled hospital is full of patients, young and old, who NEED to be there for medical care, and tell us that it's really nothing to worry about. Or go to a London hospital now - it's already hit there. Or even write to Prime Minister Johnson, chiding him for all this over-reaction, when all he really needs is your Common Sense. I'm sure your input to the hospital management will be most helpful.

[JimL]

Fauci et al.



Alright, in under 30 seconds searching demi found an expert opinion by DA GREAT EXPERT Anthony Fauci in one of the MOST PRESTIGIOUS medical PEER-REVIEWED journals, happy now?

If one assumes............, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. Lets hope that's the case. But that's one of the reasons that early, large scale testing, was of the utmost importance. The fatality rate will also be dependent upon how many people get the virus in the first place and that is dependent upon how the government and the people go about protecting themselves against it.

[demi-conservative]

Common Sense lets Demi stride confidently into a hospital full of moronic medical teams and pathetic patients, whose bilateral pneumonia requiring oxygenation and ventilation is merely a psychosomatic manifestation of psychological weakness!

This is a complete misrepresentation, but that's about all you have. No logic.

Demi, my previous offer to you is open. Feel free to come to Scotland in the next few weeks, see how our completely remodelled hospital is full of patients, young and old, who NEED to be there for medical care, and tell us that it's really nothing to worry about. Or go to a London hospital now - it's already hit there. Or even write to Prime Minister Johnson, chiding him for all this over-reaction, when all he really needs is your Common Sense. I'm sure your input to the hospital management will be most helpful.

Demi will point out that it is normal for the old to die, that for the common flu many die who NEED to be at the hospital to extend their lives, but they don't so it doesn't get overloaded. No country tries to save all the old people with flu who NEED treatment because that would overload the hospitals. Just as with the common flu, many of the old people with coronavirus will be allowed to die so that the hospitals won't be overwhelmed. All this is obvious but you don't want to admit the obvious.

Meanwhile who knows, demi might be in Japan or Korea where there is no lockdown, people aren't panicking, and hospitals aren't getting overwhelmed.

[demi-conservative]

If one assumes............,

All the cited figures of fatality rates are working on assumptions on the number of actual cases, Jim. All the experts are 'guesstimating', that magical word.

[demi-conservative]

Interview of an Israeli epidemiologist who worked on Ebola in Liberia:

So the research is biased.

But German Chancellor Angela Merkel talked about a rate of infection of 70 percent in Germany.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...rong-1.8691031

[Sparko]

Their testing efforts are impressive, but it's still not possible for them to test everyone.

They now have an in place test that can give results locally in 45 minutes.

[Sparko]

Demi has also pointed out that for flu, which is not considered a serious disease, if all the people who died of it went to hospital the facilities would also be overwhelmed.

how do dead people go to the hospital?

[demi-conservative]

Demi has also pointed out that for flu, which is not considered a serious disease, if all the people who died of it had gone to hospital the facilities would also be overwhelmed.

Tense fixed.

[demi-conservative]

One month ago

Demi: fatality rate is yugely estimated, the actual rate is about 0.01%
people: but demi you are not expert how can you

Yesterday

. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-...ay-11585088464