Coronavirus Outbreak...

[Tassman]

Hold on, I need to correct my math...

It's an average of 8,000,000 flu-related illnesses and 6,400 deaths a month. Still far, far below what we've seen so for for COVID-19, at least in the US.

The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times, whereas the death rate for COVID-19 appears to be higher than that of the flu. So, it's a question of numbers. If the Corona virus keeps spreading at the rate it has so far it will surpass the number of flu cases in the US and worldwide and the death rate will be significantly higher.

[simplicio]

What will be the backlash if the vaccine does not work perfectly? What will be the backlash if animals (birds) play a role in spread? What will the response be if it does become pandemic and people realize that our health care system does not have the slack capacity (factory model) to handle cases?

Doctors and epidemiologists classify vaccines into two broad categories, perfect vaccines both protect the individual from getting a severe case of the illness and prevent the vaccinated individuals from spreading the disease. We have vaccines for many diseases which are not released because they do not prevent those vaccinated from shedding the disease.

If poultry or hogs (bats are a likely vector, but few have contact with bats) are a pool of potential contagion, as with some of the flu viruses, then it is unlikely that the disease will be eradicated, rather it will become a persistent disease.

We do expect godlike results from doctors at CDC, WHO, public health services, big Pharm, and at universities (I think I covered the major players), and are outraged when the recommendations resemble a form of triage. Triage plays a role only when the local health care is overwhelmed as in war and epidemics.

Epidemics depend on coordination of public health and health care itself, there are relatively few vacant beds across the system, due to efficiency concerns. Only acute case typically land in hospitals. We chose to reduce our ability to respond to epidemics as part of cost cutting measure.

[seer]

And let's remember the WHO and others opposed Trump's travel ban, which was clearly the right thing to do.

The World Health Organization, which declared the outbreak a global health emergency this week, has recommended against any travel or trade restrictions in response to the outbreak. Member countries, however, do not have to comply with that guidance.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/31/...-would-suffer/

[Sparko]

Denial ain't just a river in Egypt, folks. False negatives were documented in China long before the CDC "accidentally" released this woman to infect more people. It wasn't a mistake or oversight. And the reason you prefer to deny reality rather than admit your mistake is because you have no humility or love for your fellow man, MM. And if you don't love your fellow man whom you can see, why should we believe that you love God whom you can't?

Wait, you think they released her to spread the virus on purpose?

They made a mistake. If they wanted to spread it on purpose, why wouldn't they just have let her stay out there spreading it?

[Sparko]

Mayan end of the world sounds similar to the Jesus comin' to snatch up believers while allowing hell on earth. Both are an end of history apocalypticism.

Mass media does hyperventilate. What would have likely happened if ebola broke out 40 years earlier? Would it have been contained as handily?

Spanish flu broke out before we had a smorgasboard of antibiotics to choose from, and it caused more deaths than WWI, and likely played a major part in the German surrender. A virus more potent than trenches, machine guns, and artillery? Spanish flu changed the course of history, as did the plagues sweeping Europe in pre-modern Europe.

SARS containment was a public health success, a success made possible because of the modern medicine combined with.... government efficiency!

Antibiotics don't work on viruses. What we have to fight the flu are vaccines. They are dead or weakened forms of the virus (basically parts of the virus genome) that stimulate your body to produce the correct antibodies. That will hopefully mean if you do catch the flu, your antibodies will quickly eliminate it before you feel any symptoms, or you will only get a weak form of the flu.

Antibiotics only work on bacterial infections. They are basically poisons that kill bacteria or stop their reproduction.

[Mountain Man]

The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times, whereas the death rate for COVID-19 appears to be higher than that of the flu. So, it's a question of numbers. If the Corona virus keeps spreading at the rate it has so far it will surpass the number of flu cases in the US and worldwide and the death rate will be significantly higher.

Percentages don't mean much when dealing with such a small sample size. I mean, if two people contract a disease, and one dies, that's a 50% morality rate, but it's not significant. In terms of raw numbers, there are more people who contracted and died from the common flu in the US alone than who contracted and died from COVID-19 worldwide during the same time period. And given that there are countless more people who possibly have the virus but have such mild symptoms that they don't bother seeking treatment means that COVID-19 morality rates could be even lower than what has been reported.

By all accounts, this is shaping up to be another worldwide panic that's not living up to the hype.

[Sparko]

What will be the backlash if the vaccine does not work perfectly? What will be the backlash if animals (birds) play a role in spread? What will the response be if it does become pandemic and people realize that our health care system does not have the slack capacity (factory model) to handle cases?

Doctors and epidemiologists classify vaccines into two broad categories, perfect vaccines both protect the individual from getting a severe case of the illness and prevent the vaccinated individuals from spreading the disease. We have vaccines for many diseases which are not released because they do not prevent those vaccinated from shedding the disease.

If poultry or hogs (bats are a likely vector, but few have contact with bats) are a pool of potential contagion, as with some of the flu viruses, then it is unlikely that the disease will be eradicated, rather it will become a persistent disease.

We do expect godlike results from doctors at CDC, WHO, public health services, big Pharm, and at universities (I think I covered the major players), and are outraged when the recommendations resemble a form of triage. Triage plays a role only when the local health care is overwhelmed as in war and epidemics.

Epidemics depend on coordination of public health and health care itself, there are relatively few vacant beds across the system, due to efficiency concerns. Only acute case typically land in hospitals. We chose to reduce our ability to respond to epidemics as part of cost cutting measure.

Can you imagine if we had socialized/free healthcare? The capacity would be even less available as everyone with a sniffle would head straight for the hospital and clog up the system. And the government would have had to reduce availability due to cost saving measures. Budgets you know.

[Mountain Man]

Can you imagine if we had socialized/free healthcare? The capacity would be even less available as everyone with a sniffle would head straight for the hospital and clog up the system. And the government would have had to reduce availability due to cost saving measures. Budgets you know.

Yeah, but it's FREE!

(As the saying goes, you get what you pay for.)

[JimL]

Percentages don't mean much when dealing with such a small sample size. I mean, if two people contract a disease, and one dies, that's a 50% morality rate, but it's not significant. In terms of raw numbers, there are more people who contracted and died from the common flu in the US alone than who contracted and died from COVID-19 worldwide during the same time period. And given that there are countless more people who possibly have the virus but have such mild symptoms that they don't bother seeking treatment means that COVID-19 morality rates could be even lower than what has been reported.

By all accounts, this is shaping up to be another worldwide panic that's not living up to the hype.

Whether they live up to the hype or not is often dependent upon the response, such as the response to Ebola.

[JimL]

Can you imagine if we had socialized/free healthcare? The capacity would be even less available as everyone with a sniffle would head straight for the hospital and clog up the system. And the government would have had to reduce availability due to cost saving measures. Budgets you know.

Yeah, better that people should get sick and ignore it, possibly die, and further spread it, because they can't afford to see a doctor.

[Sparko]

Yeah, better that people should get sick and ignore it, possibly die, and further spread it, because they can't afford to see a doctor.

No, because when you crowd a hospital with people who don't actually have the virus you tie up valuable resources and expose them to people who actually DO have the virus. Better if people stay home until they are actually sick enough to need a hospital. Then if they just have a regular cold or flu, they can stay home get better and not get the coronavirus on top of it.

[simplicio]

Antibiotics don't work on viruses. What we have to fight the flu are vaccines. They are dead or weakened forms of the virus (basically parts of the virus genome) that stimulate your body to produce the correct antibodies. That will hopefully mean if you do catch the flu, your antibodies will quickly eliminate it before you feel any symptoms, or you will only get a weak form of the flu.

Antibiotics only work on bacterial infections. They are basically poisons that kill bacteria or stop their reproduction.

The antibiotics are used to treat the secondary problems like pneumonia, and the lack of antibiotics is given as a reason for the high death toll. Some forms of the SPanish flu affected young healthy men disproportionately and proceeded quickly, destroying tissues. Others showed a progression of the disease similar to other influenza outbreaks, with slow progression which allowed medicines to be used.

Vaccines do not always work effectively. Animal examples like Mareks in chickens suggest that the vaccine itself is driving a trend to hotter forms of the disease (evolution!!!!) because of an incomplete immunity which allows individuals who appear healthy to spread disease. If the covid 19 vaccine is of this type, the repercussions could be catastrophic, even if it is unlikely.

Keeping the individuals alive is just one facet of addressing the epidemic, preventing spread is another important facet.

[simplicio]

Yeah, better that people should get sick and ignore it, possibly die, and further spread it, because they can't afford to see a doctor.

Just think of the cost savings if we just let 'em die in place. Adam Smith's invisible hand working to make the world a better place.

Sparko seems to think that the government does not decide how many beds are available in the community.

[Darfius]

Wait, you think they released her to spread the virus on purpose?

They made a mistake. If they wanted to spread it on purpose, why wouldn't they just have let her stay out there spreading it?

Because they brought her back to the country from Wuhan in full view of the public, idiot. They have to at least pretend to have public health safety in mind. That's why they exist. For cover. It's how the occult works, which you would know, if you understood "for even the devil appears as an angel of light." Do you think he does that to look pretty? He does it to maximize how much he can hurt those who fall for the front. Of course, you probably think the devil is bound in some supernatural prison if you believe in a devil at all.

[Sparko]

The antibiotics are used to treat the secondary problems like pneumonia, and the lack of antibiotics is given as a reason for the high death toll. Some forms of the SPanish flu affected young healthy men disproportionately and proceeded quickly, destroying tissues. Others showed a progression of the disease similar to other influenza outbreaks, with slow progression which allowed medicines to be used.

Vaccines do not always work effectively. Animal examples like Mareks in chickens suggest that the vaccine itself is driving a trend to hotter forms of the disease (evolution!!!!) because of an incomplete immunity which allows individuals who appear healthy to spread disease. If the covid 19 vaccine is of this type, the repercussions could be catastrophic, even if it is unlikely.

Keeping the individuals alive is just one facet of addressing the epidemic, preventing spread is another important facet.

Yep. I wasn't thinking about secondary infections.