Coronavirus Outbreak...

[carpedm9587]

And now for something completely different...

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(If you're not familiar with XCOM, just take my word for it that this is hilarious.)

Interestingly, the number quoted here is five times the mortality rate for the flu, which has killed between 11,000 and 61,000 people each year since 2010, with an average around 34,000. It's also a bit low. We don't have really good numbers (yet) from anywhere but China, AFAICT. However, this LA Times article from last Wednesday reports the morality in that country broken down by age under 50 the morality is between 0.2 and 0.4%, which would make it two to four times as deadly as the flu. Above that age it rises precipitously. In my age bracket, it's 36 times as deadly.

It dawns on me, however, that this compares the age-based mortality of Covid-19 with the overall average for the flu. However, I have not been able to find the age-based mortality distribution for influenza. If anyone knows where it can be found, I'd love to look at it.

[Mountain Man]

Interestingly, the number quoted here is five times the mortality rate for the flu, which has killed between 11,000 and 61,000 people each year since 2010, with an average around 34,000. It's also a bit low. We don't have really good numbers (yet) from anywhere but China, AFAICT. However, this LA Times article from last Wednesday reports the morality in that country broken down by age under 50 the morality is between 0.2 and 0.4%, which would make it two to four times as deadly as the flu. Above that age it rises precipitously. In my age bracket, it's 36 times as deadly.

It dawns on me, however, that this compares the age-based mortality of Covid-19 with the overall average for the flu. However, I have not been able to find the age-based mortality distribution for influenza. If anyone knows where it can be found, I'd love to look at it.

You've been taking lessons from the liberal media fact checkers, haven't you?

Trump: "A man tells his dog, 'Heel!' The dog says, 'It takes one to know one.' Ha ha ha ha!"

Liberal media: "FACT CHECK! Dogs can not speak intelligible English! Trump lies again!"

[RumTumTugger]

I'm a bit perplexed by this post. As a verb, "research" means "investigate systematically." Google is a powerful research tool for unearthing information in 2020. It's used by researchers worldwide. Do you have a suggestion for a different/better way to find information online? Do you use something different to investigate an issue?

yes a less biased search engine like DuckDuckgo.

[Zara]

Interestingly, the number quoted here is five times the mortality rate for the flu, which has killed between 11,000 and 61,000 people each year since 2010, with an average around 34,000. It's also a bit low. We don't have really good numbers (yet) from anywhere but China, AFAICT. However, this LA Times article from last Wednesday reports the morality in that country broken down by age under 50 the morality is between 0.2 and 0.4%, which would make it two to four times as deadly as the flu. Above that age it rises precipitously. In my age bracket, it's 36 times as deadly.

It dawns on me, however, that this compares the age-based mortality of Covid-19 with the overall average for the flu. However, I have not been able to find the age-based mortality distribution for influenza. If anyone knows where it can be found, I'd love to look at it.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/c...20-3?r=US&IR=T

[carpedm9587]

You've been taking lessons from the liberal media fact checkers, haven't you?

Trump: "A man tells his dog, 'Heel!' The dog says, 'It takes one to know one.' Ha ha ha ha!"

Liberal media: "FACT CHECK! Dogs can not speak intelligible English! Trump lies again!"

I have absolutely no clue how that in any way addresses the information in my post. It's also odd given that several of my links have been to conservative sources.

[carpedm9587]

yes a less biased search engine like DuckDuckgo.

Thanks for the recommendation. I'll spend the next few weeks running my searches on both engines to see what the differences are and if there is any significant skew between them.

[lilpixieofterror]

Actually - if the comparison is done correctly, they CAN be compared. Even your numbers above show this, though some of your numbers are wrong. According to the last census, 84% of the U.S. population lives in urban areas, not 50%. With a population of 327M (approx), that's over 274M people living in concentrated areas. Yes, it is harder to test people that are more spread out, but then again more spread out is a form of social isolation so that population is somewhat less at risk than a population living in densely concentrated areas. That's epidemiology 101.

If you look at the total numbers tested, the U.S. ranked 7th (based on CDC tested numbers) as of 3/12. But that comparison is somewhat useless and anyone making that comparison would rightly be criticized, as you have done. However, if you look at tests per million people, the U.S. is WAY down the list. There is little doubt that the U.S. is way behind the curve on testing, with numbers below 70 per million as of 3/12. That puts us behind almost every other developed country and a few developing countries. Testing is critical. We have no true idea how far and wide this virus has spread, which means we also have no real strong numbers on mortality. The numbers cited (anywhere from 1 to 3%) are best guess at this point. And getting to an accurate morality rate is further complicated by the fact that different countries have different healthcare systems (which will skew results) and the virus has different mortality rates for different age groups. We also have no true idea where the hot spots are and where we should be taking stronger steps to promote/enforce social isolation and other methods for slowing the spread.

I have no idea how the length of a border has anything to do with testing rates, so I'll leave that one alone.

In closing, it's my opinion that anyone who thinks this virus can be eradicated or stopped is living in a fantasy. Based on what we are seeing, and with cases showing up even in Richmond, Vermont - about 5 miles down the road from me, I think the genie is out of the bottle. The best we can do is slow its spread so that healthcare facilities are not overwhelmed. Eventually, pretty much everyone will likely be exposed and we will developed immunities. Eventually, there will be a vaccine to protect future generations. But if the 1% mortality rate holds up, I think we will see mortality measured in the hundreds of thousands in the U.S., and millions across the world.

It is also my opinion that the Trump administration badly bungled this one. We spent precious weeks listening to "it's not that bad" and "it will go away this spring" and "this is fake news" and "this is a Democratic hoax" and lost precious time getting a response going. That response is now beginning, but it is significantly delayed which means the virus has had more opportunity to gain traction and spread. How much more this could have been contained if the response was more rapid and the situation had been taken more seriously sooner is anyone's guess.

[Mountain Man]

I have absolutely no clue how that in any way addresses the information in my post. It's also odd given that several of my links have been to conservative sources.

It's odd that you thought to "fact check" an obvious joke.

[Mountain Man]

Ohio Gov. DeWine has ordered the closure of all sit-down bars and restaurants. Carryout and delivery are still permitted.

And this with only 37 confirmed cases of Wuhan flu in Ohio.

https://www.10tv.com/article/gov-dew...rants-2020-mar

[Mountain Man]

Illinois and New York City, too.

Some perspective:

A government cannot just shut down 30 to 50 percent of the way civil society feeds themselves, without planning and advanced preparation for an alternative. Those who ARE the alternative, the retail food grocers, need time to prepare themselves (and their entire logistical system) for the incredible impact. Without preparation this is a man-made crisis about to get a lot worse.

Some states have emergency food distribution and contingency plans. Those states are hurricane prone states; and those states have experienced the intense demand on the food distribution system when restaurants are closed and people in society need to eat.

Those states have, by necessity, developed massive logistical systems to deal with the food needs of their citizens. These current short-sighted states are not those prepared states.

Any governor who shuts down their restaurant industry without a civil contingency plan is being incredibly, catastrophically, reckless. It really is a terribly dangerous decision.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com...e-restaurants/

[demi-conservative]

Government is also instructing Rolls Royce, JCB and other manufacturers to make ventilators.

Wow. How many can they make in a month?

[simplicio]

Ohio Gov. DeWine has ordered the closure of all sit-down bars and restaurants. Carryout and delivery are still permitted.

And this with only 37 confirmed cases of Wuhan flu in Ohio.

https://www.10tv.com/article/gov-dew...rants-2020-mar

Okay. Did DeWine make a reasonable call?

Just what is the threshold at which it should be treated as a dangerous disease? Is 37 too low or not?

[oxmixmudd]

Ohio Gov. DeWine has ordered the closure of all sit-down bars and restaurants. Carryout and delivery are still permitted.

And this with only 37 confirmed cases of Wuhan flu in Ohio.

https://www.10tv.com/article/gov-dew...rants-2020-mar

Just to help put some intelligent perspective on the ignorace:

We are talking about exponential spread. Each person infects >1 more person. In this case, COVID-19 infects somewhere between 2 and 3 people for every person that contracts the disease. This means that until a significant percentage of the population is infected (resource starvation for the virus) the number of cases doubles or triples for each iteration of the virus. If one looks at the data, the US count of cases multiplied by 10 in 10 days (3/1 to 3/10), so for Ohio it looks like this:

Mar 16: 37 -> Mar 26: 370 -> April 5: 3700 -> April 15 37000 -> april 25 370,000

Will that be maintained? Well, as of today the logaritmic view of the growth curve is a strait line, which means so far, it is continuing to grow by a factor to 10 every 10 days.

logarithmic US cases.jpg

Now, with a 1% mortality and a 4% criticality, that means that 3700 people will have died from this by April 25, and they will need 14,800 hospital beds, ventilators etc. And this is just Ohio, a place where the virus has a very small presence so far.

Note, that Governor Cuomo pointed out that NY has 600 available ICU's, and they are currently using 60 for COVID-19 patients. 10 day doubling unhindered means that NY will have exhausted their ICU capacity by Mar 26!

What happens when there are no more ventilators or ICU wards for those critically ill from this virus? Mortality shoots up. Doctors (as they are in Italy) decide who lives and who dies.

Speaking of Italy: they doubled their number of cornavirus cases from Friday to today: ~12500 -> ~25000. The deaths from the virus ALSO nearly doubled from ~1000 to about ~1900.

They had already exhausted their medical capacity on Friday. As a result, they posted the LARGEST single day number of deaths at nearly 400 yesterday.


Your continued display of ignorance on this subject MM is inexcusable. You (and the idiot sources you continually quote) are a voice of destruction and folly. I hope the rest of the audience here has a better grasp of Epidemiology and the basics of the consequences of exponential spread than you do.

It we do not take action to 'flatten the curve' (change the doubling time of the spread) we will exhaust our resources and people will be dying and out of work on a scale we don't know how to comprehend. Currently we can do this without effecting food supply, resources distribution, because MOST people are not sick. In fact, only a small fraction are sick.


But If we wait, that will not be the case. We only have a short time to act effectively. The number of cases is growing exponentially. The US has 4000 (known) cases now. It will be 30x that by the begining of April. 10,000 times that by the end of April (if we do nothing)

Unchecked, a 10x for 10 days puts us at 40,000,000 infected by the end of April.

We must act NOW.

[oxmixmudd]

Illinois and New York City, too.

Some perspective:

A government cannot just shut down 30 to 50 percent of the way civil society feeds themselves, without planning and advanced preparation for an alternative. Those who ARE the alternative, the retail food grocers, need time to prepare themselves (and their entire logistical system) for the incredible impact. Without preparation this is a man-made crisis about to get a lot worse.

Some states have emergency food distribution and contingency plans. Those states are hurricane prone states; and those states have experienced the intense demand on the food distribution system when restaurants are closed and people in society need to eat.

Those states have, by necessity, developed massive logistical systems to deal with the food needs of their citizens. These current short-sighted states are not those prepared states.

Any governor who shuts down their restaurant industry without a civil contingency plan is being incredibly, catastrophically, reckless. It really is a terribly dangerous decision.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com...e-restaurants/

Most restaurants in my area are adding delivery and so one can order the food without dining in. If their staff is sick ( and they will be very soon if we don't stop the spread of the virus), they cant do that.

[oxmixmudd]

Okay. Did DeWine make a reasonable call?

Just what is the threshold at which it should be treated as a dangerous disease? Is 37 too low or not?

MM doesn't understand exponential spread - so he doesn't understand that at 37, the actions to stop the spread of the disease must take place ASAP or there will be too many sick for less drastic actions (like closing schoools and restruants) to be effective. At more than 3700 in two weeks, there are too many to stop the spread (because 3700 known cases likely means somewhere north of 10,000 are actually sick). So the window to take action is days to a week.