Coronavirus Outbreak...

[oxmixmudd]

Oxmix, calm down, one of these days you are going to OD on Fake News.

While being very infectious, in terms of severity the virus is a nothingburger and is almost certainly less deadly than the flu.

Such ignorance.

But - at the same time - I know it can't be corrected by the facts, and so I will not try very hard to do so.

To all but those infected with Trumpian denial, a simple observation of the catastrophe unfolding in Italy should suffice. I would love for you to tell me when in the last 50 years something 'less deadly than the flu' has so overwhelmed the hospitals of a modern state that they must now choose who lives and who dies due to equipment shortages? Or that has killed 6% of the people it infects. Or that puts 10% of the people in infect into the hospital needing help breathing?


The current naive mortality stands at 3.7% (total deaths/total cases)

the current worst case mortality stands at 6.7% (total deaths/recoverd+deaths)

S. Korea, where the most extensive testing campaign has been waged is nearing a real mortality of 1% - 10x the flu.

We are regularly pushed to the limit during flu season. This thing is more contagious than the flu and will be 10x that number if not stopped or slowed.

That means 9 out of 10 people needing hospital care will not be able to get it.

In countries with poor medical care, the mortality is much higher. E.g. Iran: naive mortality near 5%.

Mortality for the elderly is more like 10%+

I have posted the numbers. But you'll believe idiots over the facts.

So be it.

[Mountain Man]

Conventional wisdom is that there are far more infected people than we even know about, and as we diagnose more of those cases and get more data on which to base estimates, we should see the mortality rates plummet. The actual rate is likely less than 1%

[oxmixmudd]

And the New York Times is calling what everyone else recognizes as baseless propaganda (that the U.S. and Trump are to blame for causing it) a "theory" and thus giving it credence. TDS runs deep among the left and Never Trumpers.

Where a virus originates is irrelevant to stopping its spread once it is a pandemic - unless you want to try to cast blame or stigmatize the people of that region.

And that is the issue here.

[Bill the Cat]

Conventional wisdom is that there are far more infected people than we even know about, and as we diagnose more of those cases and get more data on which to base estimates, we should see the mortality rates plummet. The actual rate is likely less than 1%

Right. How many early cases were simply dismissed as influenza without a visit to the doctor? Now every sniffle and sneeze is resulting in people panicking and demanding a coronavirus test. That is why hospitals are getting overwhelmed.

[Mountain Man]

Where a virus originates is irrelevant to stopping its spread once it is a pandemic - unless you want to try to cast blame or stigmatize the people of that region.

Oh, so that's why for months the media was using a name that identified the viruses point of origin.

Thanks for clearing that up!

[oxmixmudd]

Conventional wisdom is that there are far more infected people than we even know about, and as we diagnose more of those cases and get more data on which to base estimates, we should see the mortality rates plummet. The actual rate is likely less than 1%

1% is 10x what our medical system can handle. And that number is what we are approaching in S. Korea which has the most extensive testing so far.

Keeping in mind that number is the naive number, which means it is most likely higher than that as the disease takes 3 to 4 weeks to run its full course. S.Korea seems to have it under reasonable control, so we should have a better window into the real mortality rate in 2 to 3 weeks if they keep it under control. but for now they still have more that 90% of the total cases still active, still undecided in terms of final outcome.

Again - what is happening in Italy is NOT what happens with the flu. It is the height of self-deception to look at what is actually going on everywhere this virus has taken a significant hold and claim this is 'ho hum no big deal'. But reality has this way of encroaching on fantasy.

So You'll know the truth about it soon enough. We can only hope the people running things have more sense than you do.

[Bill the Cat]

Oh, so that's why for months the media was using a name that identified the viruses point of origin.

Thanks for clearing that up!

No! Dean Koontz predicted this!!!

[oxmixmudd]

Oh, so that's why for months the media was using a name that identified the viruses point of origin.

which actually has nothing to do with the point made.

[Bill the Cat]

1% is 10x what our medical system can handle. And that number is what we are approaching in S. Korea which has the most extensive testing so far.

Keeping in mind that number is the naive number, which means it is most likely higher than that as the disease takes 3 to 4 weeks to run its full course. S.Korea seems to have it under reasonable control, so we should have a better window into the real mortality rate in 2 to 3 weeks if they keep it under control. but for now they still have more that 90% of the total cases still active, still undecided in terms of final outcome.

Again - what is happening in Italy is NOT what happens with the flu. It is the height of self-deception to look at what is actually going on everywhere this virus has taken a significant hold and claim this is 'ho hum no big deal'. But reality has this way of encroaching on fantasy.

So You'll know the truth about it soon enough. We can only hope the people running things have more sense than you do.

[Mountain Man]

which actually has nothing to do with the point made.

Of course not.

[Mountain Man]

...we should have a better window into the real mortality rate in 2 to 3 weeks if they keep it under control. but for now they still have more that 90% of the total cases still active, still undecided in terms of final outcome.

Until then, let's all panic and blame Trump.

[Sparko]

S. Korea, socialized medicine, is, and has been, testing 10,000 people a day, hundreds of thousands tested so far. As of tuesday the U.S. has only been able to test 5,000 people. Besides that, the government is going socialist in this case, they are going to pay for the testing and Trump is contemplating the government paying doctors and hospitals to care for those without insurance. Going to be hard to judge which system is best when they are both socialized.

SK is the size of one of our states.

And testing doesn't fix anything. Free testing isn't socialism either. It is being paid for by the insurance companies as a benefit. They are just waiving the co-pay.


Also, hospitals already do care for the indigent free of charge when it is a matter of life and death. They always have.

[Sparko]

Covid-19 is a good example of why universal healthcare, or medicare for all, is the way to go. If everyone has access to affordable healthcare then we would be better able to contain a pandemic. If millions of people are walking around with the infection because they can't afford to see a doctor then it is more likely to spread. And look at the cost of trying to deal with that. 8.3 billion in government aid so far, and a probable economic recession.

The place that has the most universal healthcare, Europe, is the place that has the largest outbreak and the most overwhelmed medical system. So bad that they are turning away treatment and locking people up in their own homes instead.

Universal healthcare means doctor shortages, supply shortages, and overloaded facilities, AT THE BEST OF TIMES. Why do you think there are month long waiting lists to get routine tests done, that you can get done in a day in the USA? Why do people have to wait months and years to get surgery?

[DesertBerean]

Welp...the City of Barstow has asked that gatherings of 250 or more be at least postponed to the end of April.

My church sponsors an annual Eggstravganza - this will be our 13th year, I think - the Saturday before Easter. We often draw at least 3,000 people. It is entirely funded by us. Wow...praying that we make the right decision on this.

[Zara]

SK is the size of one of our states.

And testing doesn't fix anything. Free testing isn't socialism either. It is being paid for by the insurance companies as a benefit. They are just waiving the co-pay.


Also, hospitals already do care for the indigent free of charge when it is a matter of life and death. They always have.

Urm, testing allows you to identify cases, track contacts and contain the virus. S. Korea has very effectively used testing to combat the virus. So, this is false.

The US has 6x the population of S. Korea, and 'the best healthcare in the world', so, there's no excuse it can't test 15,000 people per day (which S. Korea is running at now), times 6, like in S. Korea. Which, btw, has socialised medicine.