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Originally posted by Stoic View Post
I don't think you're going to find data anywhere that shows there's a more accurate way to detect covid-19 infections than a PCR test.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostThe number of cycles should not be anymore than 35. If they do 40, there will be something like 70% of improper positive results.
"I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
"Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
"[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein
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Originally posted by Starlight View Post
In California, the "emergency" situation also allows that the processing of PCR specimens and tests does not require expert superversion. So, the testing may allow more errors to happen than would normally happen.
The conditions of effective use of the PCR test was per the study of its use in one hospital. (This had to do with the detection of whether people might be infectious.) However, the CDC had notified people of the upper cycle limit as 35 or 37, as best as i recall.
We should be able to get past this craziness once people come to their senses. So, don't worry too much about the abuse of the PCR tests.Last edited by mikewhitney; 11-26-2020, 11:57 PM.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostThat's too bad. The best results are only obtained in a 3-4 day window after someone has symptoms.
The number of cycles should not be anymore than 35. If they do 40, there will be something like 70% of improper positive results.
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Every version of the test is different. It varies by manufacturer, and the maker of the test will specify the appropriate number of cycles for their testing kits.
The ones we use in my country have a 45 cycle threshold. After covid was eliminated from the country, the government did random testing of tens of thousands of people to make sure it was gone, and didn't get any positive results. So its false positive rate is clearly below 0.01%.
However the experience in my country is that the tests have quite high false-negative rates (a person in quarantine might test negative on day 3 of their quarantine, but positive on day 11, due to an infection they picked up prior to entering quarantine). It is generally believed that this is more due to the infection being localized in some cells and not others in their body, than it is due to the PCR test itself performing poorly."I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
"Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
"[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein
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The 70% number comes from the chart in the first study, below. I had the number backwards. The 70% , with ct of 29, is the chance of finding a culture in a nasal swap -- thus showing the person to be infectious. The researchers say this result is specific to the details of their PCR tests.
The study actually said (for what I think is the most pertinent part)
Hopefully this is the most pertinent chart from another study.
Also we see this;
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
The problem is the high failure rate of complying with the use of masks. social distancing, and limits of social gatherings in Italy and the USA regardless of Donald Trump
. . . but yes the failure of leadership on Trumps part, and his disregard for masks, social distancing, and large gatherings, just as others like churches and institutions that did not comply with the guidelines, and caused documented spread of COVID-19.
It has no relationship to government laws, regulations and recommendations if people do not comply in Italy and the USA..Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
there is the scheme of the abuser blaming his wife for his actions.Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostI don't know what you're talking about. Just a short couple of weeks ago, Italy was praised by the left as a model for how to deal with the China flu with its strictly enforced mask and social distancing mandates, and yet the China flu is on the rise. How can that be if they've done everything "right"? This has nothing to do with President Trump despite your unhealthy fixation on the man.
The loser in the White House discouraged mask wearing, social distancing, testing, and shutdowns that last long enough to suppress the virus to a level that can be handled with testing and tracing. That doesn't mean everything would have been hunky-dory if he had done everything right, but it would have helped.
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostThe 70% number comes from the chart in the first study, below. I had the number backwards. The 70% , with ct of 29, is the chance of finding a culture in a nasal swap -- thus showing the person to be infectious. The researchers say this result is specific to the details of their PCR tests.
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Originally posted by Stoic View Post
The government can't stop the virus. Only the people can. But the government does (usually) have some influence on how the people behave.
The loser in the White House discouraged mask wearing, social distancing, testing, and shutdowns that last long enough to suppress the virus to a level that can be handled with testing and tracing. That doesn't mean everything would have been hunky-dory if he had done everything right, but it would have helped.
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Originally posted by Stoic View Post
So there is no reason to disbelieve the numbers of covid-19 cases. Certainly the numbers may be higher in relation to the actual number of infections compared to early in the pandemic, due to increased testing (at least in areas where tests are plentiful). But the number of cases is still useful in determining in which direction the number of hospitalizations is going to go in the next week or so, and the number of deaths in the weeks after that.
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Geislerminian Antinomian Kenotic Charispneumaticostal Gender Mutualist-Egalitarian.
Beige Federalist.
Nationalist Christian.
"Everybody is somebody's heretic."
Social Justice is usually the opposite of actual justice.
Proud member of the this space left blank community.
Would-be Grand Vizier of the Padishah Maxi-Super-Ultra-Hyper-Mega-MAGA King Trumpius Rex.
Justice for Ashli Babbitt!
Justice for Matthew Perna!
Arrest Ray Epps and his Fed bosses!
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