Coronavirus Outbreak...

[shunyadragon]

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/26/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

Coronavirus hospitalizations hit another record as experts warn Thanksgiving gatherings could worsen the pandemic

By Jason Hanna and Christina Maxouris, CNN

(CNN)The US enters Thanksgiving with coronavirus cases and deaths soaring and hospitalizations at record levels. And on a holiday weekend that lends itself to big gatherings, public health experts still were begging people to avoid them, fearing the pandemic is about to become much worse.

The number of Covid-19 patients in US hospitals hit a record for the 16th straight day Wednesday, at more than 89,900, according to the COVID Tracking Project, as many medical centers warn they're running out of capacity.
Public health officials have generally urged Americans to celebrate Thanksgiving only with members of the same household, or at least gather outdoors, to keep asymptomatic carriers from further spreading the virus.


Dr. Chris Pernell, a New Jersey physician who lost her father to Covid-19, told CNN on Thursday that she was on the phone with friends the previous night, asking them to reverse their travel plans.
"I pleaded with them: Please, stay home. Be safe so you can enjoy your loved ones in the future," Pernell said.
Recorded cases are rising to unprecedented levels. The average number of new daily cases across a week in the US was 175,809 on Wednesday -- the highest on record, and more than two and a half times greater than the previous peak in late July.

And Covid-19 deaths in the US are spiking. More than 2,100 deaths were reported on Tuesday and Wednesday each, the first time that level was crossed on consecutive days since late April.

The average number of daily deaths across a week -- 1,658 on Wednesday -- is the highest it's been since mid-May.

The CDC recommendedlast week that Americans should not travel for Thanksgiving. Many changed their plans, a new poll showed. But millions didn't.

More than 1.07 million people passed through US airport security checkpoints on Wednesday alone -- the most in one day since March 16, around the time when coronavirus restrictions started nationwide, the Transportation Security Administration said Thursday.

More than 5.9 million people have flown through US airports since the CDC's anti-travel recommendation last week, according to TSA data.
"I don't mean to be scary but ... today can change the course of Covid for our country for the rest of the year," Dr. Megan Ranney, a CNN medical analyst and emergency physician at Brown University, said Thursday.
"Infections that are sustained today are going to show up in three weeks and are going to show up in deaths over Christmas and New Year's and are going to spread in every state."

© Copyright Original Source

[Stoic]

i was examining data they don't have on that tracking site.

I don't think you're going to find data anywhere that shows there's a more accurate way to detect covid-19 infections than a PCR test.

[mikewhitney]

I don't think you're going to find data anywhere that shows there's a more accurate way to detect covid-19 infections than a PCR test.

That's too bad. The best results are only obtained in a 3-4 day window after someone has symptoms. The number of cycles should not be anymore than 35. If they do 40, there will be something like 70% of improper positive results.

[Starlight]

The number of cycles should not be anymore than 35. If they do 40, there will be something like 70% of improper positive results.

[mikewhitney]

I know. It is crazy to use the PCR equipment so carelessly. However, these are the times we are in.

In California, the "emergency" situation also allows that the processing of PCR specimens and tests does not require expert superversion. So, the testing may allow more errors to happen than would normally happen.

The conditions of effective use of the PCR test was per the study of its use in one hospital. (This had to do with the detection of whether people might be infectious.) However, the CDC had notified people of the upper cycle limit as 35 or 37, as best as i recall.

We should be able to get past this craziness once people come to their senses. So, don't worry too much about the abuse of the PCR tests.

[Stoic]

That's too bad. The best results are only obtained in a 3-4 day window after someone has symptoms.

Maybe, but the virus can also be detected before someone has symptoms.

The number of cycles should not be anymore than 35. If they do 40, there will be something like 70% of improper positive results.

That's not the result that MIT got.

Source: https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/11/pcr-test-result

Given our community’s experience with Covid Pass testing so far, Ferullo doesn’t believe subclinical positives are prevalent. “In proof of this, as of the end of October, we have done more than 156,000 tests on asymptomatic individuals through COVID Pass and have had fewer than 90 positives,” he notes. “If this was a pervasive problem, I’d expect to see many more than that.”

© Copyright Original Source

[Starlight]

Every version of the test is different. It varies by manufacturer, and the maker of the test will specify the appropriate number of cycles for their testing kits.

The ones we use in my country have a 45 cycle threshold. After covid was eliminated from the country, the government did random testing of tens of thousands of people to make sure it was gone, and didn't get any positive results. So its false positive rate is clearly below 0.01%.

However the experience in my country is that the tests have quite high false-negative rates (a person in quarantine might test negative on day 3 of their quarantine, but positive on day 11, due to an infection they picked up prior to entering quarantine). It is generally believed that this is more due to the infection being localized in some cells and not others in their body, than it is due to the PCR test itself performing poorly.

[mikewhitney]

The 70% number comes from the chart in the first study, below. I had the number backwards. The 70% , with ct of 29, is the chance of finding a culture in a nasal swap -- thus showing the person to be infectious. The researchers say this result is specific to the details of their PCR tests.


The study actually said (for what I think is the most pertinent part)

Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10096-020-03913-9

In the present work, we observe a strong correlation between Ct value and sample infectivity in a cell culture model. On the basis of this data, we can deduce that with our system, patients with Ct values equal or above 34 do not excrete infectious viral particles. It was observed that SARS-CoV-2 was detected up to 20 days after onset of symptoms by PCR in infected patients but that the virus could not be isolated after day 8 in spite of ongoing high viral loads of approximately 10⁵ RNA copies/mL of sample, using the RT-PCR system used in the present study [14]. Progressive decrease of viral load over time is observed in all studies conducted in Covid-19 patients with positive detection being observed until 17–21 days after onset of symptoms, independently of symptoms

© Copyright Original Source

Hopefully this is the most pertinent chart from another study.

Source: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/infectious-positive-pcr-test-result-covid-19/

cebm PCR test infectious cov-2.png
These studies provided limited data of variable quality that PCR results per se are unlikely to predict viral culture from human samples. Insufficient attention may have been paid how PCR results relate to disease. The relation with infectiousness is unclear and more data are needed on this.

If this is not understood, PCR results may lead to restrictions for large groups of people who do not present an infection risk.

The results indicate that viral RNA load cut-offs should be used: to understand who is infectious, the extent of any outbreak and for controlling transmission.

© Copyright Original Source

Also we see this;

Source: https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/cycle-threshold-ct-value-of-rt-pcr-can-tell-us-if-a-sars-cov-2-infected-person-can-spread-disease

The study found a significant relationship between Ct value and culture positivity rate.

1. Samples with Ct values of 13–17 all led to a positive culture.
2. Culture positivity rate then decreased progressively according to Ct values to reach 12% at 33 Ct.
3. No culture was obtained from samples with Ct > 34.
4. The five additional isolates obtained after blind subcultures had Ct between 27 and 34 (low viable virus load).

Thus the study found a strong correlation between Ct value and sample infectivity in a cell culture model. The authors could deduce that with this system, patients with Ct values equal or above 34 do not excrete infectious viral particles.

© Copyright Original Source

[Mountain Man]

The problem is the high failure rate of complying with the use of masks. social distancing, and limits of social gatherings in Italy and the USA regardless of Donald Trump

. . . but yes the failure of leadership on Trumps part, and his disregard for masks, social distancing, and large gatherings, just as others like churches and institutions that did not comply with the guidelines, and caused documented spread of COVID-19.

It has no relationship to government laws, regulations and recommendations if people do not comply in Italy and the USA..

I don't know what you're talking about. Just a short couple of weeks ago, Italy was praised by the left as a model for how to deal with the China flu with its strictly enforced mask and social distancing mandates, and yet the China flu is on the rise. How can that be if they've done everything "right"? This has nothing to do with President Trump despite your unhealthy fixation on the man.

[Mountain Man]

there is the scheme of the abuser blaming his wife for his actions.

It's like all the headlines blaming the China flu for various hardships when it's really the government that is at fault. The China flu didn't cause people to become unemployed, it's the governors with their ill advised lockdowns.

[Stoic]

I don't know what you're talking about. Just a short couple of weeks ago, Italy was praised by the left as a model for how to deal with the China flu with its strictly enforced mask and social distancing mandates, and yet the China flu is on the rise. How can that be if they've done everything "right"? This has nothing to do with President Trump despite your unhealthy fixation on the man.

The government can't stop the virus. Only the people can. But the government does (usually) have some influence on how the people behave.

The loser in the White House discouraged mask wearing, social distancing, testing, and shutdowns that last long enough to suppress the virus to a level that can be handled with testing and tracing. That doesn't mean everything would have been hunky-dory if he had done everything right, but it would have helped.

[Stoic]

The 70% number comes from the chart in the first study, below. I had the number backwards. The 70% , with ct of 29, is the chance of finding a culture in a nasal swap -- thus showing the person to be infectious. The researchers say this result is specific to the details of their PCR tests.

So there is no reason to disbelieve the numbers of covid-19 cases. Certainly the numbers may be higher in relation to the actual number of infections compared to early in the pandemic, due to increased testing (at least in areas where tests are plentiful). But the number of cases is still useful in determining in which direction the number of hospitalizations is going to go in the next week or so, and the number of deaths in the weeks after that.

[mikewhitney]

The government can't stop the virus. Only the people can. But the government does (usually) have some influence on how the people behave.

The loser in the White House discouraged mask wearing, social distancing, testing, and shutdowns that last long enough to suppress the virus to a level that can be handled with testing and tracing. That doesn't mean everything would have been hunky-dory if he had done everything right, but it would have helped.

Wow. If he discouraged all these things that don't work, why are you mad at him?

[mikewhitney]

So there is no reason to disbelieve the numbers of covid-19 cases. Certainly the numbers may be higher in relation to the actual number of infections compared to early in the pandemic, due to increased testing (at least in areas where tests are plentiful). But the number of cases is still useful in determining in which direction the number of hospitalizations is going to go in the next week or so, and the number of deaths in the weeks after that.

There is no way to make a correlation. Most people getting tested are in the range of 25-44. They are not ones much susceptible to becoming sick by positive coronavirus test results. The people that have died are primarily 60 years and older ... greatly increasing in each 10 years groupings from there

[NorrinRadd]

Number of COVID deaths not a big deal.