Originally posted by shunyadragon
View Post
Announcement
Collapse
Civics 101 Guidelines
Want to argue about politics? Healthcare reform? Taxes? Governments? You've come to the right place!
Try to keep it civil though. The rules still apply here.
Try to keep it civil though. The rules still apply here.
See more
See less
Coronavirus Outbreak...
Collapse
X
-
-
Originally posted by firstfloor View PostInteresting statistic:
Closed cases, having an outcome: 173k
Recovered and discharged: 118k
Dead: 55k
worldometer
The real mortality (hard to get at due to asymptomatic cases)
The naive mortality (which tends to be too high due to undiagnosed cases, but which is a LOW percentage for those diagnosed)
The worst case mortality (which tends to be too high period, but is an upper bound (HIGH) for diagnosed cases)
As the disease progresses and the # new cases drops, the naive mortality tends to rise, and the worst case mortality drops, converging on the real mortality for diagnosed cases (still not a real mortality due to asymptomatic cases).
For NY, this is not good news, because the naive mortaility is 7.5%. Now that might come down some due to increased testing, but that means that of the ~240,000 active cases, somewhere between 15 and 18,000 of them are going to die. It might be lower if they are catching more mild cases, but the bottom line is that it means that in New York alone, at least 35 to 40,000 will die from this - about the number that typically die in the entirety of the US during a normal flu season.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
Comment
-
Originally posted by little_monkey View PostIt could be. But one has to factor in that so far the epicenter has been in New York, where the spread seems to be slowing down. However, as the virus is spreading to rural areas where the folks there are less likely to seek professional - due to economic reasons and accessibility to health care, the number of reported cases are going to be less reliable.
Comment
-
Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
Comment
-
Originally posted by shunyadragon View PostThis is unfortunate when Japan was doing so well. I hope a shot across the bow for others considering ending mitigation efforts too early.
And when the second wave inevitably hits, of course it will be someone else's fault...The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
Comment
-
Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostI doubt it will make any difference. Folks here won't learn the lesson until they learn it themselves.
And when the second wave inevitably hits, of course it will be someone else's fault...My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
Comment
-
Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostI'm guessing that will come after denying it's really a second wave ...
Comment
-
Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostI'm guessing that will come after denying it's really a second wave ...
:
Too much Hannity is, literally, lethal."I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
"Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
"[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein
Comment
-
I don't know if it is just a fluke, or the beginning of something better, but today's new cases slipped back down into the 20s (26,599) and deaths were significantly lower at 1,157. I have noticed that Sunday's seem to be a bit lower than other days, and that may be a reporting anomaly. However, even if that is the case, numbers are significantly lower today in the U.S., which also depressed worldwide numbers.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
Comment
-
Originally posted by Starlight View PostIt seems that denialism really does kill people...
:
Too much Hannity is, literally, lethal.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
Comment
-
Those who think we have reached the peak, or that we are defeating the virus. Think again, as in Trumps motto "we are in control" and do not think, a new high, half of the new infections in the world were in the USA; 48,529 and the world total is 99,968: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Comment
-
Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostI don't know if it is just a fluke, or the beginning of something better, but today's new cases slipped back down into the 20s (26,599) and deaths were significantly lower at 1,157. I have noticed that Sunday's seem to be a bit lower than other days, and that may be a reporting anomaly. However, even if that is the case, numbers are significantly lower today in the U.S., which also depressed worldwide numbers.
Comment
-
Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
Longer lockdown only delays the relapse/2nd wave---maybe the better option would be to have social distancing, masks, hand gels and other such measures to contain/manage the spread....?....similar to Korea and Taiwan?
China hit with 2nd wave even after longer lockdown......
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21D1M9
Comment
Related Threads
Collapse
Topics | Statistics | Last Post | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Started by seer, Today, 11:06 AM
|
2 responses
14 views
0 likes
|
Last Post
by seer
Today, 11:20 AM
|
||
Started by carpedm9587, Today, 07:03 AM
|
16 responses
77 views
0 likes
|
Last Post
by Mountain Man
Today, 02:40 PM
|
||
Started by rogue06, Yesterday, 09:51 AM
|
0 responses
19 views
0 likes
|
Last Post
by rogue06
Yesterday, 09:51 AM
|
||
Started by seer, 05-16-2024, 05:00 PM
|
0 responses
31 views
0 likes
|
Last Post
by seer
05-16-2024, 05:00 PM
|
||
Started by seer, 05-16-2024, 11:43 AM
|
201 responses
755 views
0 likes
|
Last Post
by seer
Today, 01:21 PM
|
Comment