Coronavirus Outbreak...

[little_monkey]

The peak is more like an extended plateau like I predicted between the end of April to early May

It could be. But one has to factor in that so far the epicenter has been in New York, where the spread seems to be slowing down. However, as the virus is spreading to rural areas where the folks there are less likely to seek professional - due to economic reasons and accessibility to health care, the number of reported cases are going to be less reliable.

[firstfloor]

Interesting statistic:
Closed cases, having an outcome: 173k
Recovered and discharged: 118k
Dead: 55k

worldometer

[oxmixmudd]

Interesting statistic:
Closed cases, having an outcome: 173k
Recovered and discharged: 118k
Dead: 55k

worldometer

Yes - the dead tend to die before the living recover. So there are 3 statistics.

The real mortality (hard to get at due to asymptomatic cases)
The naive mortality (which tends to be too high due to undiagnosed cases, but which is a LOW percentage for those diagnosed)
The worst case mortality (which tends to be too high period, but is an upper bound (HIGH) for diagnosed cases)

As the disease progresses and the # new cases drops, the naive mortality tends to rise, and the worst case mortality drops, converging on the real mortality for diagnosed cases (still not a real mortality due to asymptomatic cases).

For NY, this is not good news, because the naive mortaility is 7.5%. Now that might come down some due to increased testing, but that means that of the ~240,000 active cases, somewhere between 15 and 18,000 of them are going to die. It might be lower if they are catching more mild cases, but the bottom line is that it means that in New York alone, at least 35 to 40,000 will die from this - about the number that typically die in the entirety of the US during a normal flu season.

[shunyadragon]

It could be. But one has to factor in that so far the epicenter has been in New York, where the spread seems to be slowing down. However, as the virus is spreading to rural areas where the folks there are less likely to seek professional - due to economic reasons and accessibility to health care, the number of reported cases are going to be less reliable.

The primary relationship remains the natural bell curve of the virus path in the population. The course of the virus infection in each of the larger country follows the same curve pattern in the order that the infection occured in each country. The natural curve dominates.

[firstfloor]

A warning from Japan:

https://apple.news/A0lbgreVIS56KVbfmrAdwgQ

[shunyadragon]

A warning from Japan:



https://apple.news/A0lbgreVIS56KVbfmrAdwgQ

This is unfortunate when Japan was doing so well. I hope a shot across the bow for others considering ending mitigation efforts too early.

[carpedm9587]

This is unfortunate when Japan was doing so well. I hope a shot across the bow for others considering ending mitigation efforts too early.

I doubt it will make any difference. Folks here won't learn the lesson until they learn it themselves.

And when the second wave inevitably hits, of course it will be someone else's fault...

[oxmixmudd]

I doubt it will make any difference. Folks here won't learn the lesson until they learn it themselves.

And when the second wave inevitably hits, of course it will be someone else's fault...

I'm guessing that will come after denying it's really a second wave ...

[shunyadragon]

I'm guessing that will come after denying it's really a second wave ...

It depends on what you mean by a 'second wave,' because I do not consider it a 'second wave' when isolated groups, regions, or like isolated counties in North Carolina that lack contact with the virus get infected in this wave. In past pandemics there were 'second waves,' after the passing of the pandmeic. For example when this pandemics passes some are warning of a 'second wave' in the Fall.

[Starlight]

I'm guessing that will come after denying it's really a second wave ...

It seems that denialism really does kill people...

:


Too much Hannity is, literally, lethal.

[carpedm9587]

I don't know if it is just a fluke, or the beginning of something better, but today's new cases slipped back down into the 20s (26,599) and deaths were significantly lower at 1,157. I have noticed that Sunday's seem to be a bit lower than other days, and that may be a reporting anomaly. However, even if that is the case, numbers are significantly lower today in the U.S., which also depressed worldwide numbers.

[carpedm9587]

It seems that denialism really does kill people...

:


Too much Hannity is, literally, lethal.

Oh that is just too...amazing...

[shunyadragon]

Those who think we have reached the peak, or that we are defeating the virus. Think again, as in Trumps motto "we are in control" and do not think, a new high, half of the new infections in the world were in the USA; 48,529 and the world total is 99,968: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

[shunyadragon]

I don't know if it is just a fluke, or the beginning of something better, but today's new cases slipped back down into the 20s (26,599) and deaths were significantly lower at 1,157. I have noticed that Sunday's seem to be a bit lower than other days, and that may be a reporting anomaly. However, even if that is the case, numbers are significantly lower today in the U.S., which also depressed worldwide numbers.

Not a fluke, nor reflecting the over all pattern, since today's figures blow the roof off. See my previous post.

[siam]

A warning from Japan:



https://apple.news/A0lbgreVIS56KVbfmrAdwgQ

Longer lockdown only delays the relapse/2nd wave---maybe the better option would be to have social distancing, masks, hand gels and other such measures to contain/manage the spread....?....similar to Korea and Taiwan?

China hit with 2nd wave even after longer lockdown......
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21D1M9