Coronavirus Outbreak...

[carpedm9587]

Well - I don't know if it is all about taking the brakes of social isolation too soon, but we have had over 37,000 new cases for each of the past two days, putting them above the previous peak on 4/4 of 36,664. Thursday was 37,725 and Friday was 38,596. Deaths continue to be in the 2K/day range and we are on track to exceed the worst flu season within the next 6 days. NY, MA, NJ, PA, MI, IL, CA are all above 1,000 new cases per day. Nine more states are above 500/day and another 15 above 200/day. While the logarithmic graph shows a downward-bending curve for new infections in many states, the linear curves are not bending downward for any of them AFAICT. The same holds true for deaths.

Whoever thinks the worst is behind us...I have to wonder what you are basing that on. AT this rate, we will hit 1M confirmed cases and 58K deaths on Monday.

[seer]

China pressured EU to drop COVID disinformation criticism: sources

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...source=twitter

[little_monkey]

link? all cases, or just those that had serious complications?

The studies were done on recovered patients. The studies are preliminary, and more will be known. Nevertheless, it's a serious disease, much different than the seasonal flu.

Link:https://nypost.com/2020/04/11/corona...bodily-damage/

[carpedm9587]

China pressured EU to drop COVID disinformation criticism: sources

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...source=twitter

China lied and then sought to covered up the lie. This is pretty well known. They are still doing it.

You think this matters because...?

[little_monkey]

CO-19 april 24.jpg

It looks like the data of 24 April indicates that we haven't reach the peak yet.

[oxmixmudd]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]44207[/ATTACH]

It looks like the data of 24 April indicates that we haven't reach the peak yet.

Could be an artifact of increased testing. I tend to think a better measure at this point due to the attempts to expand testing aggressively is hospital admissions for covid19. But I don't have a good window into that number right now.

[shunyadragon]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]44207[/ATTACH]

It looks like the data of 24 April indicates that we haven't reach the peak yet.

The peak is more like an extended plateau like I predicted between the end of April to early May

[oxmixmudd]

Could be an artifact of increased testing. I tend to think a better measure at this point due to the attempts to expand testing aggressively is hospital admissions for covid19. But I don't have a good window into that number right now.

I found this:

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html

which allows more complete analysis of what is happening in terms of hospitalizations. Right now New York, for example, is clearly past a peak on covid-19 hospital admissions, but Maryland is not.

COVID-19-NET NewYork Admissions weekly.jpg

COVID-19-NET_Maryland Admissions weekly.jpg

It is interesting in the that rate of hospitalizations also seems tied to the amount of testing and the number of cases in the state, with many states with a lower number of cases or lower total testing showing apparent drop offs in hospitalization, and those with more cases, more testing (e.g. Maryland, Connecticut) shownig increasing hospitalizations.

So it does appear to be a bit more complicated than one might presume to figure out what is actually happening with the spread of the virus overall.

[carpedm9587]

Could be an artifact of increased testing. I tend to think a better measure at this point due to the attempts to expand testing aggressively is hospital admissions for covid19. But I don't have a good window into that number right now.

We can only hope this is the reason. We know that the virus is likely far more penetrated than current testing (which is primarily diagnostically driven) is capturing. We've seen numbers from 20% (NYC) to as much as 50% (LA). Those are very high density areas, so penetration in other types of area is still a dark void. It is amazing to me that 3 months after the first U.S. case and 2 months after community transmission was demonstrated, we STILL do not have an organized testing program and are still guessing about what is going on.

And then they wonder why we think Mr. Trump has badly managed the entire federal effort. How on earth can a man who says ridiculous things like "maybe we can inject disinfectants" and "maybe light can be used inside the body" be competent at anything having to do with managing a response to this kind of crisis? The primary response we're seeing thus far is "throw money at it so the precious economy doesn't falter." Now I wonder why that would be so paramount to him?

[firstfloor]

The crisis deepens:

While divisions emerged, the Congressional Budget Office on Friday painted a stark picture of economic trauma that will last through next year. It said the budget deficit will widen from $1 trillion to $3.7 trillion this year and the unemployment rate will jump from 3.5 percent in February to 16 percent at the end of September. It also projected that the economy would go through an extreme contraction between April and June.

because of ... lack of leadership.

[carpedm9587]

The crisis deepens:

because of ... lack of leadership.

Well... to be fair...because of a pandemic made worse by a lack of effective leadership.

[firstfloor]

An American cleric has died after consuming disinfectant.
Trump has been charged with bleach of the priest.

[a British joke]

[carpedm9587]

An American cleric has died after consuming disinfectant.
Trump has been charged with bleach of the priest.

[Charles]

That you apparently feel the need to find contradictions where none exist is your problem, not mine. For one thing, I do not share your belief that biases are an infinite regress. Perhaps my mistake was thinking that everybody is capable of honestly assessing themselves? Surely this isn't some unique skill that I possess.

You dishonestly cut my post. So here I will post it again:

It appears you still have not understood that your approach is contradictory since you still seem to think you can determine who is capable of self-assesment and who is not. I made no claims about myself. I only pointed out, which I have also demonstrated, that your "method" is contadictory. Based on that it is no surpise you cannot offer advice. And, unfortunately, it is neither a surprise that you would rather focus on my person than dealing with the points made ragarding your contradictions.

You can find it here: http://www.theologyweb.com/campus/sh...l=1#post730890

[oxmixmudd]

Since April 3, the united states has an average that 30,867 new cases per day. For the last 3 days the values are 31,889, 38,958, and 35,419, and it rose 4 days straight prior to the drop from 38,958 to 35,419.

likewise, deaths, which lag new cases by two weeks or so, have been holding stready at around 2000 per day since April 7 with notable peaks pushing past 2500/day around April 14 and April 21.

We have not, as a nation, turned the corner yet, we are just holding steady.

Mexico - a test of sorts for an unsophisticated nation eschewing shelter in place has advanced from 5th to 7th above S.Korea. It's log curve is a straight line diagonal, doubling every 6 days. At this rate it will have over 50,000 cases in less than 2 weeks.

Sweden, banking on their population's self control is faring better, but on the rise, a straight diagonal log curve with a shallow slope, there is no turn for them yet. Mexico should approach or perhaps pass them in a week or so.