Coronavirus Outbreak...

[Mountain Man]

So - there is a racial dimension to the coronavirus insofar as it is impacting minorities more than it is impacting non-minorities. But as with so many things, that is an indirect effect: it is impacting the poor more than those who are well off because the poor often lacks adequate access to healthcare and are more likely to have health issues, making them more at risk with this virus. And it is simply true that the percentage of poverty among minorities is higher than among non-minorities. However, I don't think it is necessarily "racist" to be arguing for re-opening the country. I just think it's criminally stupid - given that we have not yet contained this pandemic, it has a significant (and insidious) transmission rate, and it has a significant mortality rate compared to the seasonal flu.

As for the Russia involvement in the protests, I have not seen any evidence that they are, but the U.S. intelligence agencies and Mueller's report were clear that Russia is involved in attempting to undermine the U.S. by intentionally pitting U.S. citizens against one another and fomenting discord through social media. That has been more than amply documented for me. So I would not be surprised in the least to find that they are playing the same games with the coronavirus.

Why am I not surprised that you're actually trying to justify and defend this nonsense?

[Mountain Man]

I have increasing hopes it will be [Trump's] undoing on 11/3.

It's pretty disgusting that you actually hope that more people will get sick and die just so Trump will lose the election. A rational person would say, "I hope Trump's efforts succeed so that as many lives as possible can be saved," but you're not a rational person, are you?

[Mountain Man]

Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) schooled Bill Maher repeatedly as the HBO host accused President Trump of poorly handling the Wuhan coronavirus.

Maher argued the president dithered in late January, even after White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro and Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar briefed Trump about the novel coronavirus coming out of China.

"Two days later he implemented a restrictive travel ban from China which he was widely criticized for," Crenshaw responded. "And you know, that same day, on January 31st, Nancy Pelosi proposed the 'No Ban Act' which would be congressional limitation on what President Trump is actually able to do with that travel restriction."

When Maher accused the president of lying about the travel ban by not stopping all travelers returning from China, Crenshaw pointed out that it was American citizens and other passport holders that were being repatriated to the United States.

"If you're saying you wish that travel restriction had been more extreme, okay, fine," Crenshaw said. "You apparently had the foresight back then when apparently no one else did, but the fact is that if Joe Biden was in charge at that moment, he's already said he wouldn't have done it. ... Nancy Pelosi actually proposed legislation to stop it."

Maher then moved on to discuss February 11th, when the president was hopeful the warmer weather traditionally experienced in April would slow the spread of the virus, and other sentiments the president expressed that were too Maher found too hopeful during a time of crisis.

"Your criticism appears to be based in one thing: that Trump was overly optimistic," Crenshaw noted. The Texas representative then pointed out that the month of February, far from being a "lost month," was a fact-finding month where the president and public health experts learned more about the transmissibility of the disease and the severity of symptoms among vulnerable populations.

"By March 3rd, there were only 102 cases in the United States, and yet I'm hearing criticism that we should have been locked down weeks earlier," Crenshaw noted. "Do you think the American people would have accepted that with only 100 cases in the United States? Italy didn't lock down till March 10th. Spain, not until March 14th. U.K. not until later in March. Places like Sweden never locked down. So I just provide all of that context as we basically try to accuse this man ... of having blood on his hands."

Maher then questioned why someone with Crenshaw's military background would want an overly-optimistic leader like President Trump during a time of crisis.

"Exuding positivity and calmness in crisis is exactly how we ask our SEALs to lead," Crenshaw explained.

"When bullets are flying past my head, I don't need to raise my voice," Crenshaw continued. "Calm breeds calm. Panic breeds panic."

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bronso...orona-n2567205

[simplicio]

It's pretty disgusting that you actually hope that more people will get sick and die just so Trump will lose the election. A rational person would say, "I hope Trump's efforts succeed so that as many lives as possible can be saved," but you're not a rational person, are you?

Are you sure that is what he is doing?

I read the exchange and did not get that at all from the text. I do hope that you ability to read and understand language is better when it comes to the Bible.

[Starlight]

I do hope that you ability to read and understand language is better when it comes to the Bible.

Spoiler alert: It isn't.

[NorrinRadd]

I made one of of the Neuschwanstein Castle, which my elderly mother gave to me. Apparently I once gave it to her and she never made it because Dad got sick shortly afterwards. She returned it and I finished it fairly quickly. Then I was digging through our closet and came across a 4,000 piece puzzle of that exact same castle. This morning, that castle was on my desktop where Microsoft rotates a new image every day or so.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]44151[/ATTACH]

Maybe the fates are trying to tell me something!

I have several, and Neuschwanstein is my favorite.

In the non-3D genre, Springboks are my favorite by far. Thick pieces with really weird shapes, and so well fitted, you can often pick the whole puzzle up when it's complete.

[NorrinRadd]

COVAG-18 sounds like an entirely different kind of disease.

Yeah... I'd thought maybe it was an acetaminophen/paracetamol kind of thing, but I finally looked up "covag," and... um...

[firstfloor]

Disney lays off 100,000 employees, while reminding them that Trump has $2tn.

Unemployment everywhere is going through the roof.

[NorrinRadd]

I don't watch Fox. And I suspect you don't, either.

I watch Fox News quite a bit. The comparisons I've seen have been between the official Wu-WHO Flu projection numbers -- currently about 60,000 deaths -- with auto accidents, the 2017-18 flu, etc. So "exponential growth" is irrelevant. It would be included in the official projection.

The argument is basically, "If the total number of deaths is projected to be about the same as -- or even less than -- those other fatality numbers, why are we going so uniquely bonkers over the Wu-WHO Flu?

[carpedm9587]

It's pretty disgusting that you actually hope that more people will get sick and die just so Trump will lose the election. A rational person would say, "I hope Trump's efforts succeed so that as many lives as possible can be saved," but you're not a rational person, are you?

Once again, for those just picking up on this thread, MM is (once again) misrepresenting my post. What I said was "He is so badly mismanaging this crisis, I have increasing hopes it will be his undoing on 11/3. What a mess...". That is not "hoping people will get sick and die."

If I hope that the coming Category 5 Hurricane will at least clear the dead leaves out of my yard, I am not hoping it will come and possibly kill hundreds and possibly do billions of dollars of destruction so I can get my leaves picked up. I am accepting that the hurricane as very likely to hit and, if it does, hoping for a bright side. Likewise, Trump is pretty much inevitable at this point. I have almost zero hope that he will get past himself and become an effective leader. He is the hurricane. If he actually does suddenly become effective for this crisis, it will be welcome, but it cannot undo the fact that this crisis is unfolding in slow motion and the time he has lost while he farts around with ratings, one-upping his critics, and playing to his base has already cost lives. So I am hoping that his malfeasance will finally wake up at least some part of his base from their conned-stupor and get this man out of office.

I'm sure MM,'s response to this will be to reassert that he's correct, so I leave it to the reader to sort things out from my actual posts.

[carpedm9587]

I have several, and Neuschwanstein is my favorite.

In the non-3D genre, Springboks are my favorite by far. Thick pieces with really weird shapes, and so well fitted, you can often pick the whole puzzle up when it's complete.

I'll have to look for them. When I was a kid, I loved Whitman puzzles. They are out of business. But I loved them because the form they used to cut the puzzles created a perfect grid, and the interlocking alternated from piece to piece. So if you had two of the pieces surrounding a missing piece already in place, you could predict the shape of the missing piece. There were only six shapes over all, so if you sorted the puzzle by color AND by shape, you could always narrow down the pile containing the missing piece quickly. I could assemble a 1,000 piece puzzle in half a day!

Unfortunately, they are out of business now - though you can still buy new boxes online through eBay from various people.

[carpedm9587]

I watch Fox News quite a bit. The comparisons I've seen have been between the official Wu-WHO Flu projection numbers -- currently about 60,000 deaths -- with auto accidents, the 2017-18 flu, etc. So "exponential growth" is irrelevant. It would be included in the official projection.

The argument is basically, "If the total number of deaths is projected to be about the same as -- or even less than -- those other fatality numbers, why are we going so uniquely bonkers over the Wu-WHO Flu?

So this is where many on the right are giving this a spin that ignores the science. The novel coronavirus had an initial transmission rate that was above R₀ = 2.0. That means every infected person was expected to infect at least two other people, hence the "doubling rate" that was being talked about - which is exponential. With no vaccine, if no steps were taken to contain it, this doubling rate would continue until the total number of people approached the "herd immunity" rate of this virus. Herd immunity is basically the point at which R = 1 or less, so that the pandemic is no longer growing. At R <= 1, each infected person is, at worst, infecting one other person - effectively replacing themselves rather than adding to the infected population size. For this virus, herd immunity is believed to be around 60% (based on the initial transmission rate, IIRC) and depends on this virus being like most other viruses: exposure = immunity to subsequent infections.*

This means that, in order for the planet (or any country) to reach herd immunity, 60% of its population has to become infected. For the world, that's 4.62B people. For the U.S. it's 198M people. For NY state it's 11.67M people. for NYC it's 4.98M people. It is believed, and has been confirmed by numbers from several sources, that this virus has an average mortality rate of about 1%. It's lower for the young and healthy, and higher for the old and/or sick, especially those with compromised immune systems and/or lungs. If the virus is allowed to run its course with little/no mitigation and no vaccine, and that mortality is accurate, before we reach herd immunity, 46M people in the world will die (just under the 1918 flu pandemic), 1.98M people in the U.S will die, 116,700 people in NY state will die, and 49,800 people in NYC will die. That's what basic epidemiology tells us.

The reason you are seeing lower projections now is that we have been implementing mitigation efforts (e.g., general social distancing, testing/tracing/treating programs, face masks, etc.). All of these have the effect of lowering the R factor BEFORE we reach herd immunity. As long as they continue, R will continue to be below 2.0 and, if we push it below 1, the virus will continue to decline in the population. That is what the new models are projecting. As soon as we stop, however, in the absence of a vaccine, the virus will pick up where it left off, obeying the simple math of epidemiology.

There are only three known ways to gain immunity from the virus*, AFAIK. 1) a vaccine. 2) being exposed to the virus itself, 3) being injected with the antibodies to the virus from someone with a compatible blood type who has already been sick and survived. Without a vaccine, that leaves 2) and 3). 3) is being done, but it is hard to scale. That leaves 2). Unless we prohibit the virus from moving through the population using the mitigation efforts we are currently using, 2) will be the natural course of the virus.

This is what makes the current "liberate" protests in many states so fundamentally stupid. It is roughly the equivalent of a group that is desperately working to thwart a breaching damn saying, "look boys, we slowed it down. I guess we can call it a day." Anyone familiar with water will know that if you stop before you plug the breach completely, the breach will go back to widening. Or the equivalent of someone who has been pushed out of a plane with a parachute on who opens the chute and then says, "look - it slowed me down. I guess I don't need THAT anymore" and jettison's the chute at 10,000 feet. If you jettison the chute before you are on the ground, your free fall will recommence. The science is inevitable.

*It should be noted that immunity after infection with this virus is not a sure thing. There have been incidents of re-infection that have not been explained yet. The hope is they are testing-related issues and not actual reinfections. If they are reinfections, that will certainly muddy the waters a great deal.

[Mountain Man]

Are you sure that is what he is doing?

Yes, and it wouldn't be the first time he's made a similar suggestion.

[Mountain Man]

Once again, for those just picking up on this thread, MM is (once again) misrepresenting my post. What I said was "He is so badly mismanaging this crisis, I have increasing hopes it will be his undoing on 11/3. What a mess...". That is not "hoping people will get sick and die."

If I hope that the coming Category 5 Hurricane will at least clear the dead leaves out of my yard, I am not hoping it will come and possibly kill hundreds and possibly do billions of dollars of destruction so I can get my leaves picked up. I am accepting that the hurricane as very likely to hit and, if it does, hoping for a bright side. Likewise, Trump is pretty much inevitable at this point. I have almost zero hope that he will get past himself and become an effective leader. He is the hurricane. If he actually does suddenly become effective for this crisis, it will be welcome, but it cannot undo the fact that this crisis is unfolding in slow motion and the time he has lost while he farts around with ratings, one-upping his critics, and playing to his base has already cost lives. So I am hoping that his malfeasance will finally wake up at least some part of his base from their conned-stupor and get this man out of office.

I'm sure MM,'s response to this will be to reassert that he's correct, so I leave it to the reader to sort things out from my actual posts.

And if we look back at this thing on election day, and most people say, "You know, things could have been a lot worse. The President did a good job," it will only be because not enough people suffered, right? Admit it, that would rankle you.

[Charles]

And if we look back at this thing on election day, and most people say, "You know, things could have been a lot worse. The President did a good job," it will only be because not enough people suffered, right? Admit it, that would rankle you.

The fact that it could have been a lot worse in no way implies that the president did a good job. You are finding yourself in a situation where, truly, it could have been a lot worse. However, if the president had done a good job the situation would have been a lot better. We already know he did not do a good job.