Trump has been tweeting, periodically, about the coming "red wave" in November. Personally, I think the man is in denial. I've been watching the 12th Congressional district in Ohio. This is one of the stronger Republican districts. It has a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+7. But we have seen a shift to the left of 10-20 points in special elections since Trump's election, and this district is yet another example of the leftward swing we are seeing in the country. This is not a district that should be in dispute. It should be solidly Republican. Even if the Dems ultimately lose it, the fact that it is in question at all should be a matter of concern for the right. Dems need 23 districts. There are 52 districts that are less "right" then the Ohio 12th district, and are up for re-election in November, only 3 months away. Dems need to take fewer than half of them.
I think there is a significant chance Dems will retake the house in November. Personally, I will be happy to see at least a beginning to the return of balance. My big fear is that the swing will be too dramatic, and both Congress and the Executive branch will return to Democratic control in 2020. Personally, now that it is clear that SCOTUS has swung to the right, I hope at least one part of government stays a bit more to the right. If I could call it, I would want the Senate and Executive branch to go left, and the House to go right. That would provide a bit balance.
I think there is a significant chance Dems will retake the house in November. Personally, I will be happy to see at least a beginning to the return of balance. My big fear is that the swing will be too dramatic, and both Congress and the Executive branch will return to Democratic control in 2020. Personally, now that it is clear that SCOTUS has swung to the right, I hope at least one part of government stays a bit more to the right. If I could call it, I would want the Senate and Executive branch to go left, and the House to go right. That would provide a bit balance.
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