In 2016, CNN Money ran this article:
Donald Trump has a big promise for the U.S. economy: 4% growth.
No chance, say 11 economists surveyed by CNNMoney. And a paper published Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco backs them up.
"No, pigs do not fly," says Robert Brusca, senior economist at FAO Economics, a research firm. "Donald Trump is dreaming."
The Republican presidential nominee made the promise in a speech in New York in September. "I believe it's time to establish a national goal of reaching 4% economic growth," he said.
Since the Great Recession, growth has averaged 2%. Brusca and the other economists surveyed say that 4% growth is impossible, or at least highly unlikely. The reasons: Unemployment is already really low, lots of Baby Boomers are retiring, and there are far fewer manufacturing jobs today than in past decades.
Trump's team says it will get to 4% growth with tax cuts, better trade deals and more manufacturing jobs.
So what's realistic? The San Francisco Fed estimates the "new normal" for annual economic growth to be 1.5% to 1.75%. That's far lower than the period from World War II to 2004, when growth typically hovered between 3% and 4%.
https://money.cnn.com/2016/10/11/new...sts/index.html
Today:
U.S. economy accelerates to 4.1% rate in second quarter, fastest in almost 4 years
The numbers: Consumers and government spending powered the economy to a 4.1% rate of gross domestic product growth in the second quarter, the fastest pace in almost four years.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a 4.2% increase in GDP, the official scorecard for the U.S. economy.
Growth was revised up in the first quarter to 2.2% from 2%.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...ars-2018-07-27
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Donald Trump has a big promise for the U.S. economy: 4% growth.
No chance, say 11 economists surveyed by CNNMoney. And a paper published Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco backs them up.
"No, pigs do not fly," says Robert Brusca, senior economist at FAO Economics, a research firm. "Donald Trump is dreaming."
The Republican presidential nominee made the promise in a speech in New York in September. "I believe it's time to establish a national goal of reaching 4% economic growth," he said.
Since the Great Recession, growth has averaged 2%. Brusca and the other economists surveyed say that 4% growth is impossible, or at least highly unlikely. The reasons: Unemployment is already really low, lots of Baby Boomers are retiring, and there are far fewer manufacturing jobs today than in past decades.
Trump's team says it will get to 4% growth with tax cuts, better trade deals and more manufacturing jobs.
So what's realistic? The San Francisco Fed estimates the "new normal" for annual economic growth to be 1.5% to 1.75%. That's far lower than the period from World War II to 2004, when growth typically hovered between 3% and 4%.
https://money.cnn.com/2016/10/11/new...sts/index.html
Today:
U.S. economy accelerates to 4.1% rate in second quarter, fastest in almost 4 years
The numbers: Consumers and government spending powered the economy to a 4.1% rate of gross domestic product growth in the second quarter, the fastest pace in almost four years.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a 4.2% increase in GDP, the official scorecard for the U.S. economy.
Growth was revised up in the first quarter to 2.2% from 2%.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...ars-2018-07-27
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