Assessment of Mr. Trump

[carpedm9587]

Here's a little more data on the issue...

Pew has found that the what was previously a roughly bell-shaped political distribution with the US electorate has polarized itself into two bell curves which are overlapping less and less:

As usual with Pew, their entire 10-page write-up on the subject (where I got those graphs from) is worth a read.

Their analysis of political sub-groups that they noticed within their own data also failed to reveal anything much that could be clearly labelled 'centrist':

I have seen this before, Star. There is no question Democrats and Republicans are pulling apart. Your data, however, omits the vast sea of independents out there. The data I looked for included them. And your bottom chart actually supports what I was saying.

[Starlight]

Your data, however, omits the vast sea of independents out there.

I don't believe it does. People who view themselves as 'independent' are included in all the above Pew data (with the slight exception of charts 2&3 which only include independents who say they 'lean democrat' or 'lean republican') In studying 'independents' Pew notes that the vast majority of them lean toward one of the two parties (and hence are included in charts 2&3 above), and only 6% of the US populace is both self-described 'independents' and do not say they 'lean toward' one of the two major parties.

Pew's finding was that on major issues, the vast majority of the self-proclaimed 'independents' largely agree with the stances of the party they 'leaned toward':



What this tells you is that most of these 'independents' aren't calling themselves 'independents' because they (a) disagree with both party's positions on major issues, or (b) are centrists. Instead it is (c) while agreeing with one of the party's positions on most major issues they have an intense dislike of something not-directly-issue-based about that party (I'm guessing it's mostly that they feel that the politicians in the party are smarmy and corrupt)

For example, were I American, I would fall squarely into the category of "democrat-leaning independent" like Bernie Sanders does. I took Pews little values poll and it classified me as a "disaffected democrat" - one of the groups on the Pew chart that you seemed to feel was part of your imagined centrist coalition. (News flash - I'm not a centrist - I'm to the left of Bernie Sanders and would align closely with Jeremy Corbyn.)

[Tassman]

It's incredibly childish to call names like "Fat Donny", but it seems to fit you, so....

[Cow Poke]

So, Trump is a liar, so that makes it OK for you act like a rotten child. Thanks for 'splaining that to me.

[Tassman]

So, Trump is a liar,

[Cow Poke]

Finally!!!

I never denied he was a liar, you dolt. Not once. I have said all along I'm not a Trump supporter. That would be one of the reasons I'm not.

You appear to be in competition with him, relative to telling the truth. I think that may be one of the reasons you hate him so badly - he reminds you of you.

[Tassman]

I never denied he was a liar, you dolt. Not once. I have said all along I'm not a Trump supporter. That would be one of the reasons I'm not.

[carpedm9587]

I don't believe it does. People who view themselves as 'independent' are included in all the above Pew data (with the slight exception of charts 2&3 which only include independents who say they 'lean democrat' or 'lean republican') In studying 'independents' Pew notes that the vast majority of them lean toward one of the two parties (and hence are included in charts 2&3 above), and only 6% of the US populace is both self-described 'independents' and do not say they 'lean toward' one of the two major parties.

Pew's finding was that on major issues, the vast majority of the self-proclaimed 'independents' largely agree with the stances of the party they 'leaned toward':



What this tells you is that most of these 'independents' aren't calling themselves 'independents' because they (a) disagree with both party's positions on major issues, or (b) are centrists. Instead it is (c) while agreeing with one of the party's positions on most major issues they have an intense dislike of something not-directly-issue-based about that party (I'm guessing it's mostly that they feel that the politicians in the party are smarmy and corrupt)

For example, were I American, I would fall squarely into the category of "democrat-leaning independent" like Bernie Sanders does. I took Pews little values poll and it classified me as a "disaffected democrat" - one of the groups on the Pew chart that you seemed to feel was part of your imagined centrist coalition. (News flash - I'm not a centrist - I'm to the left of Bernie Sanders and would align closely with Jeremy Corbyn.)

OK - look at those charts. The one on the left identfies (ironically) those who are consistently/mostly conservative, and what pools they hail from - and the graph on the right (ironically) is about those who are consistently/mostly liberal. Extraolating from that data and using 2015 numbers, if 5% of democratic identifiers are consistently/mostly conservative, and 62% are consistently/mostly liberal, that leaves 33% that are in the middle or moderate. Run those numbers for all five groups and you come to the rough distribution I am seeing in the rest of my research: 38-40% moderate, mid30s% conservative, high 20s% liberal.

I think you are misreading the Pew Data.

[Cow Poke]

No. And I certainly wouldn't allow that to lower myself to the level of calling a President of the US "Fat Donny". That's still childish.

[Starlight]

OK - look at those charts. The one on the left identfies (ironically) those who are consistently/mostly conservative, and what pools they hail from - and the graph on the right (ironically) is about those who are consistently/mostly liberal. Extraolating from that data and using 2015 numbers, if 5% of democratic identifiers are consistently/mostly conservative, and 62% are consistently/mostly liberal, that leaves 33% that are in the middle or moderate. Run those numbers for all five groups and you come to the rough distribution I am seeing in the rest of my research: 38-40% moderate, mid30s% conservative, high 20s% liberal.

I think you are misreading the Pew Data.

Good point, was misunderstanding the y-axis on those charts.

Can you explain to me what you think the "political center" consists of? (I'm inherently skeptical of using the term 'centrist', since from an international perspective the democrats are center to right-wing, and the republicans are off-the-charts-ultra-right-wing, but I get you mean in between those two parties) What kind of policies would you expect this hypothetical centrist party to stand for? How would they have voted on the recent tax bill? How would they differ from the average corporate-democrat? How would they differ from Joe Manchin?

[carpedm9587]

No.

Really? I have to admit this surprises me. Trump has explicitly said (Art of the Deal), that lying is an acceptable activity if it gets you what you want. That immediately undercut his credibility to me - because he has explicitly said he will lie to me if it achieves his ends.

Since then, I have found that an average of about 60% of what he says that I have followed up on and checked proveds to be wrong. Normally, I would simply write that off as an uninformed person flapping their lips. But because he has 1) told me he is willing to lie to me, and 2) continued to push incorrect messages even when documented proof it is wrong is presented, I conclude that he is not just ill informed - he is intentionally lying to achieve an end.

But you apparently think otherwise? Can you confirm that and, if so, explain?

P.S. My 60% score is actually LOWER than what most fact-check sites have quoted as a statistic. Many of these quote numbers in the high sixties and even into the 70s.

[Cow Poke]

Really? I have to admit this surprises me. Trump has explicitly said (Art of the Deal), that lying is an acceptable activity if it gets you what you want. That immediately undercut his credibility to me - because he has explicitly said he will lie to me if it achieves his ends.

Since then, I have found that an average of about 60% of what he says that I have followed up on and checked proveds to be wrong. Normally, I would simply write that off as an uninformed person flapping their lips. But because he has 1) told me he is willing to lie to me, and 2) continued to push incorrect messages even when documented proof it is wrong is presented, I conclude that he is not just ill informed - he is intentionally lying to achieve an end.

But you apparently think otherwise? Can you confirm that and, if so, explain?

P.S. My 60% score is actually LOWER than what most fact-check sites have quoted as a statistic. Many of these quote numbers in the high sixties and even into the 70s.

I'm agnostic on this, Carpe. I have no axe to grind - I'm not a Trump supporter, but neither am I his judge. I have expressed numerous times I wish somebody would take his Twitter account from him - he is his own worst enemy. He will answer for his own conduct, both here and in the after life.

[carpedm9587]

I'm agnostic on this, Carpe. I have no axe to grind - I'm not a Trump supporter, but neither am I his judge. I have expressed numerous times I wish somebody would take his Twitter account from him - he is his own worst enemy. He will answer for his own conduct, both here and in the after life.

Oh I sincerely hope they do NOT take his account away.

As much as he protests that the "MSM" wants to shut down his twitter feed - that's the LAST thing they want. No other president has provided such an unfiltered view into his mind - not that it wouldn't benefit from a bit of filtering

About that afterlife thing...

[Tassman]

No.

Trump is a proven liar. This is not in doubt.

[Starlight]

I'm not a Trump supporter, but neither am I his judge.

Just the same as with Obama right...?