Just for fun - the Popular Vote...

[Cow Poke]

New Projection Of Trump’s Popular Vote Spells Doom For Biden

Now, first, let's have a reminder ---- Presidents do NOT win elections by having "more popular votes" than their opponent, much as some here keep touting... BUT BIDEN GOT WAY MORE....

It will be the ELECTORAL votes that puts either candidate into the White House.

However, just for fun...

A new projection showing Donald Trump’s potential popular vote tally on election night paints a worrying picture for the incumbent, President Joe Biden.

Trump currently leads Biden in numerous national poll aggregates, including a Thursday morning RealClearPolling (RCP) average that shows Trump with a 1% lead in an average of eleven polls conducted throughout May and June. According to a projection that factors in national poll changes and polling errors from 2020, if Trump’s 1% lead holds — or grows —come Election Day, Biden may be poised to suffer a resounding defeat.

Trump’s 306-232 electoral college victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, the biggest electoral college victory for a Republican since 1988, coincided with a 2% loss to the Democratic candidate in the national vote. The race ultimately came down to roughly 100,000 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

In 2020, Biden also won the Electoral College 306-232, but his popular vote victory was substantially larger than Clinton’s, winning by 4.5%. The difference was ultimately decided over 40,000 votes in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.

It will be difficult for the Democrats to win a presidential election in which they lose the popular vote, or even win it by less than 4.5%, should this year’s results be anything like 2016 and 2020. The national environment will likely need to favor Democrats by a significant margin, as Trump winning the popular vote (even by 1%) foreshadows a bigger electoral margin than his victory in 2016.

So, what could an election night like this look like?

A projection adjusted for each state’s 2020 result by the change in the national polls, and taking into account 2020’s polling error, would yield a result that strongly favors Trump, showing the former president winning by a larger electoral vote margin than he did in 2016.

electoral map.png

In this scenario, swing states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are deemed ‘Likely Trump’ (between 6 and 9.99%) with other more Democratic-friendly swing states like Michigan and Nevada landing in the ‘Lean Trump’ column (between 2 and 5.99%). Trump also flips the Democratic-leaning states of Minnesota and New Hampshire by a ‘Tilt’ margin (.01-1.99%) in this calculation.

Some reliably blue states are also decided by narrower margins than expected, with Illinois, Oregon and New Jersey being deemed ‘Likely Biden,’ according to this projection. The same goes for Colorado and New Mexico, each of which earned a ‘Lean Biden” designation.

Notably, Biden would win Maine and Virginia, which leaned significantly toward Democrats in 2020, by only ‘Tilt’ margins, according to this projection.

It is also likely that, if the final four states to be called on election night are Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine and Virginia, then a former president will be returning to the White House for the first time since 1893.

[rogue06]

IIRC, a large share of old Joe's popular majority came from one state -- California. This seems to spread those numbers out nationally.

[Diogenes]

IIRC, a large share of old Joe's popular majority came from one state -- California. This seems to spread those numbers out nationally.

One thing's for sure, the Electoral College is a Godsend.

[Cow Poke]

One thing's for sure, the Electoral College is a Godsend.

Or a curse - if you're a pinko commie liberal left loony who keeps screaming about the popular vote!

[whag]

Or a curse - if you're a pinko commie liberal left loony who keeps screaming about the popular vote!

IMG_1766.jpeg

[Diogenes]

IMG_1766.jpeg

Both of these statements are true.

Hint: The Founding Fathers would have very likely understood "democracy" in an Aristotelian sense.


ETA: To wit

Every time I hear a leftist talk about "democracy", I just hear them talking about their control on the mob.

[rogue06]

Both of these statements are true.

Hint: The Founding Fathers would have very likely understood "democracy" in an Aristotelian sense.


ETA: To wit

The Founding Fathers repeatedly expressed very negative opinions toward democracy which they equated with mob rule.

[Cow Poke]

The Founding Fathers repeatedly expressed very negative opinions toward democracy which they equated with mob rule.

SO many examples - two foxes and a chicken voting on what's for dinner, etc.

[rogue06]

SO many examples - two foxes and a chicken voting on what's for dinner, etc.

Here we go again...

Dagnabbit. Rant coming on in 5... 4... 3... 2... 1...


Our founding fathers had every opportunity to create a democracy but did not choose to do so. Why? Because they were utterly repulsed by the idea recognizing it for what it is. That is why they established a republic instead.

Let's take a quick peek at what some of them had to say about it shall we

James Madison, in Federalist Paper No. 10
Democracies have ever been spectacles of turbulence and contention; have ever been found incompatible with personal security, or the rights of property; and have, in general, been as short in their lives as they have been violent in their deaths.

In the same document Madison, regarded as the "Father of the Constitution" as well as author of and biggest supporter of our Bill of Rights, stated that in a pure democracy "there is nothing to check the inducement to sacrifice the weaker party or the obnoxious individual." It is in essence mob rule.

John Witherspoon, Signer of the Declaration of Independence
Pure democracy cannot subsist long nor be carried far into the departments of state, it is very subject to caprice and the madness of popular rage.

Fisher Ames, author of the House language for the 1st Amendment]
A democracy is a volcano which conceals the fiery materials of its own destruction. These will produce an eruption and carry desolation in their way. The known propensity of a democracy is towards licentiousness [excessive license] which the ambitious call, and the ignorant believe to be liberty.

Gouverneur Morris, signer and Penman of the Constitution, in a 1814 speech
We have seen the tumult of democracy terminate ... as [it has] everywhere terminated, in despotism Democracy! savage and wild. Thou who wouldst bring down the virtuous and wise to the level of folly.

John Marshall, first Chief Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court
Between a balanced republic and a democracy, the difference is like that between order and chaos.

Zephaniah Swift, author of Americas first legal treatise
It may generally be remarked that more a government resembles a pure democracy the more they abound with disorder and confusion.

Benjamin Rush, Signer of the Declaration of Independence, in a 1789 letter to John Adams
A simple democracy ... is one of the greatest evils.

Edmund Randolph, 1787, at the Constitutional Convention
...that in tracing these evils to their origin every man had found in the turbulence and follies of democracy.

Alexander Hamilton, first Secretary of the Treasury
"We are now forming a Republican form of government. Real liberty is not found in the extremes of democracy, but in moderate governments. If we incline too much to democracy we shall soon shoot into a monarchy, or some other form of a dictatorship."

IIRC, the last words that Hamilton penned were "our real disease is Democracy."

Noah Webster, in his 1801 "American Spelling Book"
In a democracy ... there are commonly tumults and disorders Therefore a pure democracy is generally a very bad government. It is often the most tyrannical government on earth.

John Quincy Adams in a speech celebrating the Jubilee of the Constitution
The experience of all former ages had shown that of all human governments, democracy was the most unstable, fluctuating and short-lived.

And from his father...

John Adams, in a letter from 1814
Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. It is in vain to say that democracy is less vain, less proud, less selfish, less ambitious, or less avaricious than aristocracy or monarchy. It is not true, in fact, and nowhere appears in history.

In his highly influential Thoughts on Government Adams stated unequivocally that "There is no good government but what is republican" and that was the form of government that was established. After the Conventional Convention of 1787, Benjamin Franklin was asked what had been wrought to which he famously answered: "A republic, if you can keep it."

The word "democracy" appears absolutely nowhere in the Declaration of Independence or Constitution, the two most fundamental documents of our nation. Instead of a democracy, the Constitution's Article IV Section 4, guarantees "to every State in this Union a Republican form of government."^[1]

In fact, the Constitution is replete with undemocratic mechanisms. The Electoral College and Senate representation come to mind. The Bill of Rights enumerates individuals with similar protections against the majority. The First Amendment, for example, is totally undemocratic. It was designed to protect unpopular speech against democratic fervor.

Instead of a democracy which they viewed as merely another form of tyranny our founders gave us a republic, with a representative form of government. Democracy is rule by majority or mob rule (often expressed as two wolves and a sheep voting on what's going to be had for dinner), whereas a representative Republic is based upon the rule of law -- the Constitution.

The latter recognizes the unalienable rights of individuals (the power of the majority is limited by a written constitution which safeguards the God-given inalienable rights of minority groups and individuals alike) while the former is only concerned with group wants at any given moment. As I said -- mob rule or maybe a "mobocracy."

The great American author James Fenimore Cooper put it another way:

It is a besetting vice of democracies to substitute public opinion for law. This is the usual form in which masses of men exhibit their tyranny.

In closing I'll note that the founding fathers never used the words" republic" and "democracy" interchangeably like we do today. They carefully studied various forms and systems of government from throughout history in order to establish a system of government that would best deter any form of tyranny, including the tyranny of the majority.

Maybe things would be different if every elected official was required to memorize what the founding fathers had to say or even how the U.S. Department of War (superseded by the U. S. Department of Defense) training manual (No. 2000-25), published in 1928, which every American soldier once carried, defined Democracy.:

A government of the masses. Authority derived through mass meeting or any form of 'direct' expression. Results in mobocracy. Attitude toward property is communistic negating property rights. Attitude toward the law is that the will of the majority shall regulate, whether it be based upon deliberation or governed by passion, prejudice, and impulse, without restraint or regard to consequences. Results in demagogism, license, agitation, discontent, anarchy." The manual went on to state: "Our Constitutional fathers, familiar with the strengths and weakness of both autocracy and democracy, with fixed principles definitely in mind, defined a representative republican form of government. They "made a very marked distinction between a republic and a democracy and said repeatedly and emphatically that they had founded a republic."

1. Think of it this way, does our Pledge of Allegiance to the flag say "to the democracy for which it stands"? And do we sing the "Battle Hymn of the Democracy" or the "Battle Hymn of the Republic"?

[Sparko]

New Projection Of Trump’s Popular Vote Spells Doom For Biden

Now, first, let's have a reminder ---- Presidents do NOT win elections by having "more popular votes" than their opponent, much as some here keep touting... BUT BIDEN GOT WAY MORE....

It will be the ELECTORAL votes that puts either candidate into the White House.

However, just for fun...

A new projection showing Donald Trump’s potential popular vote tally on election night paints a worrying picture for the incumbent, President Joe Biden.

Trump currently leads Biden in numerous national poll aggregates, including a Thursday morning RealClearPolling (RCP) average that shows Trump with a 1% lead in an average of eleven polls conducted throughout May and June. According to a projection that factors in national poll changes and polling errors from 2020, if Trump’s 1% lead holds — or grows —come Election Day, Biden may be poised to suffer a resounding defeat.

Trump’s 306-232 electoral college victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, the biggest electoral college victory for a Republican since 1988, coincided with a 2% loss to the Democratic candidate in the national vote. The race ultimately came down to roughly 100,000 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

In 2020, Biden also won the Electoral College 306-232, but his popular vote victory was substantially larger than Clinton’s, winning by 4.5%. The difference was ultimately decided over 40,000 votes in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.

It will be difficult for the Democrats to win a presidential election in which they lose the popular vote, or even win it by less than 4.5%, should this year’s results be anything like 2016 and 2020. The national environment will likely need to favor Democrats by a significant margin, as Trump winning the popular vote (even by 1%) foreshadows a bigger electoral margin than his victory in 2016.

So, what could an election night like this look like?

A projection adjusted for each state’s 2020 result by the change in the national polls, and taking into account 2020’s polling error, would yield a result that strongly favors Trump, showing the former president winning by a larger electoral vote margin than he did in 2016.

electoral map.png

In this scenario, swing states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are deemed ‘Likely Trump’ (between 6 and 9.99%) with other more Democratic-friendly swing states like Michigan and Nevada landing in the ‘Lean Trump’ column (between 2 and 5.99%). Trump also flips the Democratic-leaning states of Minnesota and New Hampshire by a ‘Tilt’ margin (.01-1.99%) in this calculation.

Some reliably blue states are also decided by narrower margins than expected, with Illinois, Oregon and New Jersey being deemed ‘Likely Biden,’ according to this projection. The same goes for Colorado and New Mexico, each of which earned a ‘Lean Biden” designation.

Notably, Biden would win Maine and Virginia, which leaned significantly toward Democrats in 2020, by only ‘Tilt’ margins, according to this projection.

It is also likely that, if the final four states to be called on election night are Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine and Virginia, then a former president will be returning to the White House for the first time since 1893.

If Trump won the popular vote but lost the electoral votes you would see all the democrats (including JimL and Sam) praising the Electoral College and saying "the Popular vote doesn't win elections, our founding fathers were smart to enact an electoral college"

[Diogenes]

If Trump won the popular vote but lost the electoral votes you would see all the democrats (including JimL and Sam) praising the Electoral College and saying "the Popular vote doesn't win elections, our founding fathers were smart to enact an electoral college"

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c49545...ilibuster-2005

Sen. Chuck Schumer opposing eliminating the Senate filibuster during speech on May 23, 2005


If you have twitter:

https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1478099050452992005

Schumer on protecting the filibuster.

Found a transcript on Reddit:

"Bottom line is very simple: The ideologues in the Senate want to turn what the Founding Fathers called ‘the cooling saucer of democracy’ into the rubber stamp of dictatorship. We will not let them. They want, because they can’t get their way on every judge, to change the rules in mid-stream, to wash away 200 years of history. They want to make this country into a banana republic, where if you don’t get your way, you change the rules. Are we going to let them? It’ll be a doomsday for democracy if we do."



We're only a republic when it's convenient.