The Trump Juggernaut...

[seer]

The Harvard Harris poll is not right wing, in the least, so this surprised even me. So if Trump gets convicted his numbers rise?

Trump holds 6-point lead over Biden despite legal woes: Poll

Former President Trump holds a 6-point lead over President Biden in a hypothetical 2024 match-up, new polling shows, even as the Republican frontrunner faces mounting legal woes.

A Harvard CAPS-Harris poll found Trump with 48 percent to Biden’s 42 percent in a head-to-head race, with another 9 percent of registered voters unsure who they would back between the two.

Even if Trump is indicted in one of his legal battles, the polling suggests he could still defeat Biden.

If Trump is convicted of trying to influence the 2020 election results in Georgia, he’s still the favorite to win, with 52 percent to Biden’s 48 percent.

If he’s convicted for inciting the riots at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, his lead extends to 8 points, with 54 percent to Biden’s 46 percent.

And if he’s convicted of crimes related to his handling of classified presidential documents, voters are split 50-50 on who to vote for.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...gal-woes-poll/

[seanD]

There were some black Trump supporters that argued that they relate to his unjustifiable court cases, though I heard that from maybe just a couple of back supporters so I don't know how widespread that is, but if that's the general sentiment of the growing black support he's getting, maybe that's a factor.

[NorrinRadd]

The polls make sense to me -- esp. the split between J6 and docs.

In the former case, there was no "insurrection," and it's dubious that he "incited" anything criminal or violent.

In the latter case, it's clear he was reckless, high-handed, and deceptive. He did no real harm, but it's still hard to sympathize with him.

[tabibito]

The polls make sense to me -- esp. the split between J6 and docs.

In the former case, there was no "insurrection," and it's dubious that he "incited" anything criminal or violent.

True. There was a disregard for the effects of his claims though.

In the latter case, it's clear he was reckless, high-handed, and deceptive. He did no real harm, but it's still hard to sympathize with him.

The voters are given the choice between two people who recklessly handled classified documents. When it comes to the crunch, I think Trump would have a slight edge.

[Ronson]

There were some black Trump supporters that argued that they relate to his unjustifiable court cases, though I heard that from maybe just a couple of back supporters so I don't know how widespread that is, but if that's the general sentiment of the growing black support he's getting, maybe that's a factor.

I had read that somewhere as well, that many blacks are now identifying with Trump because of how unfairly he is being treated. If that translates into votes then it doesn't bode well for Democrats. All it really takes is a reason for party loyalists to take a step back and view their party with some objectivity - to see the forest for the trees. Democrats are not the friends of blacks or most minorities.

[Mountain Man]

Trump is on track to sweep all 50 states in the primary. Nikki Haley, meanwhile, refuses to drop out despite suffering one humiliating defeat after another.

[rogue06]

The polls make sense to me -- esp. the split between J6 and docs.

In the former case, there was no "insurrection," and it's dubious that he "incited" anything criminal or violent.

In the latter case, it's clear he was reckless, high-handed, and deceptive. He did no real harm, but it's still hard to sympathize with him.

Of course it being determined that old Joe also took, as well as "willfully retained and disclosed" classified information might tend to dull the effect of what OMB did.

[rogue06]

Trump is on track to sweep all 50 states in the primary. Nikki Haley, meanwhile, refuses to drop out despite suffering one humiliating defeat after another.

At some point one has to wonder about her motivation. Personal?

[Ronson]

At some point one has to wonder about her motivation. Personal?

I think she's hanging in there hoping for a miracle. That either Trump is jailed or has a stroke or something, then she will be the only candidate left who didn't drop out.

[seer]

I think she's hanging in there hoping for a miracle. That either Trump is jailed or has a stroke or something, then she will be the only candidate left who didn't drop out.

There is no way she could win a brokered convention, too many diehard Trump supporters - at that point it would probably be DeSantis.

[rogue06]

I think she's hanging in there hoping for a miracle. That either Trump is jailed or has a stroke or something, then she will be the only candidate left who didn't drop out.

But she is alienating the very people who'd make the decision of who to replace him with. At this point, Chris Christie probably has a better shot.

[NorrinRadd]

With the orange hair...

[Sam]

At some point one has to wonder about her motivation. Personal?

If Trump loses in 2024, Hayley will be in a position to say both "I told you so" and "I ran the best campaign of any non-Trump candidate". If Trump loses the election and is subsequently convicted, imprisoned, and otherwise disgraced, Hayley will be in a strong position to unite the Never-Trumpers and the people who suddenly want to bury their past support and associations, Dennis Hassert-style.

Her motivation, in short, is 2028.

-Sam

[Ronson]

If Trump loses in 2024, Hayley will be in a position to say both "I told you so" and "I ran the best campaign of any non-Trump candidate". If Trump loses the election and is subsequently convicted, imprisoned, and otherwise disgraced, Hayley will be in a strong position to unite the Never-Trumpers and the people who suddenly want to bury their past support and associations, Dennis Hassert-style.

Her motivation, in short, is 2028.

That makes sense. Her chances in 2024 are nearly nil, but she will have a lot of name recognition going into 2028. And low-information voters love name recognition.

[seer]

And low-information voters love name recognition.