Getting Hotter? What to do?

[Hypatia_Alexandria]

Interestingly, as best we can tell from ice core records, the NW Passage was ice free in the summers as recently as 8000 years ago.

Around about the same time [give or take a thousand years or so] that we have the earliest evidence of human recorded history. Not long is it?

[Mountain Man]

The global average, and the global trend, is the average of thousands of data sets, over the entire year, for over 100 years, some showing trends one way, others showing trends the other. But it is the average over time that tells the story, not any single set of points.

Except those "thousands of data sets" have been massaged and manipulated and "adjusted" to produce the desired results. For many years, the 1930s to the 1940s was widely accepted as the hottest decade on record followed by a slight cooling trend in the following decades, but since that didn't fit the narrative, the data was "adjusted" to bring the previous high point down and the present up in order to flip it into a dramatic warming trend. Same with the two decade pause in global temperature rise which baffled "climatologists" and led to one failed explanation after another until they simply "adjusted" the data to eliminate the pause, and then carried on like their hypothesis was still correct.

Here's a comparison of the raw data as measured by NOAA versus the "adjusted" data that is reported to the public:

Screen-Shot-2016-12-28-at-5.45.44-AM-1.gif
https://realclimatescience.com/2016/...ata-tampering/

“Nearly all of the warming they are now showing are in the adjustments,” Meteorologist Joe D’Aleo, a study co-author, told The Daily Caller News Foundation in an interview. “Each dataset pushed down the 1940s warming and pushed up the current warming.”

“You would think that when you make adjustments you’d sometimes get warming and sometimes get cooling. That’s almost never happened,” said D’Aleo, who co-authored the study with statistician James Wallace and Cato Institute climate scientist Craig Idso.

Their study found measurements “nearly always exhibited a steeper warming linear trend over its entire history,” which was “nearly always accomplished by systematically removing the previously existing cyclical temperature pattern.”

https://dailycaller.com/2017/07/05/e...-climate-data/

[Gondwanaland]

Around about the same time [give or take a thousand years or so] that we have the earliest evidence of human recorded history. Not long is it?

[Gondwanaland]

Of course, my sampling was a flippant offer and wasn't meant to indicate anything. If I had picked a different day of July it would have looked vastly different.

In reality, the temps for entire month of July this year are above average in my city, as were last year's temps. But the previous eight years were below average. Too small a sampling, time and region, to indicate much of anything. Especially since summer temps rely heavily on storm fronts; More rain equals lower temps.

Yep and here in Colorado we had record number of consecutive under 90 Temps all the way from the start of the year until this month. One of our coolest June's on record as well. Also some very needed moisture that pulled the entire state out of a "megadrought" that climatologists were declatingbwould last until at least 2030.

[Hypatia_Alexandria]

The Neolithic site had no writing. A written language is generally regarded as what constitutes recorded history and civilisation [Glyn Daniel definition].

So not even the proverbial blink in geological terms.

[Gondwanaland]

I wonder if some posting to this thread need to understand that global warming, local weather, and climate change are all different.

From 2016

https://www.noaa.gov/explainers/what...te-and-weather

How is weather different from climate?

Weather and climate describe the same thing—the state of the atmosphere—but at different time scales.
Weather is what you experience when you step outside on any given day. In other words, it is the state of the atmosphere at a particular location over the short-term. Climate is the average of the weather patterns in a location over a longer period of time, usually 30 years or more.
If you’ve ever heard your local weathercaster say, “We just hit a record high for this day,” he or she is comparing the day’s weather with your location’s climate.

Death Valley, Calif. hits 134
degrees F in 1913, setting U.S. record

Weather can change quickly, from one moment to the next and over short distances. It can be raining one minute, and snowing the next. It can be pouring on one side of town and sunny on the other.
Climate, on the other hand, changes more slowly. That’s why we come to expect, for example, that the Northeast will be cold and snowy in January and that the South will be hot and humid in July. Also, climate generally doesn’t vary much over short distances, except in the mountains.
[..,.]

Climate is about the long term. It’s about using the weather data we collected in the past to look for long-term trends of 30 years or more. It also about applying the best science we have today to predict changes that may occur in the ocean and atmosphere in the future.

Climate is what you expect,
weather is what you get

Worldwide, scientists observe weather conditions at thousands of stations every day of the year. Some observations are made hourly, others just once a day. Over time, these observations allow us to define what’s normal at each location. Scientists calculate averages of daily weather conditions, such as average temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind speed, to describe climate.

When scientists talk about climate, they’re talking about the averages of measureable things like land or sea temperature, amount of rainfall, date of the first frost, amount of sea ice melt, or sea level, etc. often over long timespans of 30 years or more.

In many locations around the United States, weather and climate records have been kept for more than 140 years. NOAA is involved in a long-term effort to collect, quality control, and organize data to make it available to the public online. These long-term records enable scientists to detect climate patterns and trends.

Climate datasets also allow scientists to generate climate data products, including graphics, maps, and reports such as the monthly or annual State of the Climate reports. These data also serve as input for computer models to help generate climate outlooks and weather forecasts.

[...]

What is the difference between climate change and global warming?

Global warming is one aspect of climate change

The terms climate change and global warming are often used interchangeably. Is there a difference between the two? To scientists there is, but in general, everyday conversation, people use both.
2015 was the warmest year on record for Earth, a record that dates back to 1880.

Climate change refers to any significant change in the measures of climate for extended periods of time, usually over decades or longer. This includes major, long-term changes in temperature, precipitation, humidity, ocean heat, wind patterns, sea level, sea ice extent, and other factors, and how these changes affect life on Earth.

Climate change results from both human activities and natural causes. Human activities include the emission of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere and changes in land-use patterns, such as agriculture and urbanization. Natural causes range from regular pattern shifts in the dynamics of our oceans and atmosphere, such as , to volcanic eruptions that emit various gasses and aerosols in the atmosphere, to long-term changes in the Earth’s orbit around the sun, to variations in the amount of energy from the Sun that reaches Earth.

Global warming is one aspect of climate change. Specifically, it relates to the recent and ongoing rise in global average temperatures near Earth’s surface (land, ocean or both). Over the last 50 years, global warming has primarily been due to the increase of heat-trapping pollutants, called greenhouse gases, that humans are adding to the atmosphere primarily by burning fossil fuels. The current increase in global average temperature appears to be occurring much faster than at any point in the last 11,000 years. Global warming is causing climate patterns to change. However, it is only one aspect of climate change.

Generally, when scientists talk about global warming, they almost always mean human-caused warming: warming due to the rapid increase of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere from people burning coal, oil, and gas, and from land uses, such as agriculture or urbanization.

Today’s global warming is an unprecedented type of climate change and is causing a number of side effects to our planet. These changes, from sea level rise to melting mountain glaciers to prolonged droughts, will likely have a much greater impact on society as a whole than temperature change alone.

I suggest you talk to some of your fellow CAGWers like JimL who told us just the other day that weather and climate aren't different

[Gondwanaland]

The Neolithic site had no writing. A written language is generally regarded as what constitutes recorded history and civilisation [Glyn Daniel definition].

So not even the proverbial blink in geological terms.

I didn't say it did.

[Hypatia_Alexandria]

I didn't say it did.

I was just considering that incredibly short period [in geological terms] with one of your earlier remarks concerning our:

ability as a species to adapt and our long history of doing so in more biomes and a wider range than any other species on the planet.

Certainly our various species' survived for a far longer period during the prehistoric phase but I am not sure many reading this thread would wish to return to knapping flint and making fire

.

[Cow Poke]

I was just considering that incredibly short period [in geological terms] with one of your earlier remarks concerning our:

ability as a species to adapt and our long history of doing so in more biomes and a wider range than any other species on the planet.

Certainly our various species' survived for a far longer period during the prehistoric phase but I am not sure many reading this thread would wish to return to knapping flint and making fire

.

That's a skill they taught us in Boy Scouts! A Country Boy Will Survive!

[Hypatia_Alexandria]

That's a skill they taught us in Boy Scouts! A Country Boy Will Survive!

Knapping flint? Really?

[Hypatia_Alexandria]

I suggest you talk to some of your fellow CAGWers like JimL who told us just the other day that weather and climate aren't different

Ignorance exists on both sides.

[oxmixmudd]

Except those "thousands of data sets" have been massaged and manipulated and "adjusted" to produce the desired results. For many years, the 1930s to the 1940s was widely accepted as the hottest decade on record followed by a slight cooling trend in the following decades, but since that didn't fit the narrative, the data was "adjusted" to bring the previous high point down and the present up in order to flip it into a dramatic warming trend. Same with the two decade pause in global temperature rise which baffled "climatologists" and led to one failed explanation after another until they simply "adjusted" the data to eliminate the pause, and then carried on like their hypothesis was still correct.

Here's a comparison of the raw data as measured by NOAA versus the "adjusted" data that is reported to the public:

Screen-Shot-2016-12-28-at-5.45.44-AM-1.gif
https://realclimatescience.com/2016/...ata-tampering/

“Nearly all of the warming they are now showing are in the adjustments,” Meteorologist Joe D’Aleo, a study co-author, told The Daily Caller News Foundation in an interview. “Each dataset pushed down the 1940s warming and pushed up the current warming.”

“You would think that when you make adjustments you’d sometimes get warming and sometimes get cooling. That’s almost never happened,” said D’Aleo, who co-authored the study with statistician James Wallace and Cato Institute climate scientist Craig Idso.

Their study found measurements “nearly always exhibited a steeper warming linear trend over its entire history,” which was “nearly always accomplished by systematically removing the previously existing cyclical temperature pattern.”

https://dailycaller.com/2017/07/05/e...-climate-data/

They have been adjusted to remove known biases. I've been over what those biases are. The majority adjustments that are visible in your cut-n-paste from the anti-agw site are:

Time of observation bias
Cutover from LIG or similar to mmts.

Those shifts occurred across the time frame where you see the data converge. They each contribute a little less than half. Other equipment adjustments like change in shelter height make up the difference.

sadly, you chose to believe these are not real, yet there has been ample research to support each. There is no objective leg to stand on for denying the legitimacy or need for the adjustments to get a real picture of what the change has been.

yet climate denialists continue to promote charts like the above as 'evidence' of corruption or malfeasance on those unable to understand why the adjustments are made, or in a small percentage of cases, those that can, but simply won't acknowledge their validity for ideological reasons.

if I can measure the actual difference between two thermometers, the if I want to compare their readings, I must calibrate one to the other (or both to a fixed standard). If I have a weight, to use on a balance, then I need to compare it to a fixed standard if I am going to use it for commerce, or to get results that are accurate.

To get a handle on just how warped the denialist community is, ask yourself what they would be publishing if the situation were reversed and the bias was the opposite and older equipment read 1/2 a degree lower than present day. They'd be DEMANDING the bias adjustments be done, and looking for new ones.

and that is because they are not driven by objective science, but by other things, money, ideology, politics etc.

[Cow Poke]

Knapping flint? Really?

Among many other things, absolutely.

[Hypatia_Alexandria]

Among many other things, absolutely.

Thank you. Very interesting. However, how do scouts that do not live in a region that has natural flint go about it? With what do they practise?

[Gondwanaland]

I was just considering that incredibly short period [in geological terms] with one of your earlier remarks concerning our:

ability as a species to adapt and our long history of doing so in more biomes and a wider range than any other species on the planet.

Certainly our various species' survived for a far longer period during the prehistoric phase but I am not sure many reading this thread would wish to return to knapping flint and making fire

.