Trump and North Korea

[Ronson]

Talks broke down in February, 2019, and Kim started launching missiles again just over two months later.

It's not proof, I'd like to see an alternative explanation.

Lots of explanations. It could be that Kim had new missiles he wanted to test so HE sabotaged the talks. There could have been something that he considered a provocation (sometimes it only hinges on something said, like Moon hinting NK will one day be history). It could even be a coincidence. The point is that Kim relatively behaved himself when Trump was president. You can find alternative explanations for that, but IMO it is because Trump had direct communication with Kim (which he respected) and because Trump seemed like an unpredictable president, at least at the outset.

It worked once before, why not try it again?

Assumption.

[Stoic]

There is no evidence of a tie-in there, but it's possible.

Talks broke down in February, 2019, and Kim started launching missiles again just over two months later.

It's not proof, I'd like to see an alternative explanation.

Exactly. He interprets those exercises as a threat so he rattles his saber in response.

It worked once before, why not try it again?

[Ronson]

He quieted down while he was negotiating with Trump to get relief from sanctions. When he couldn't get that, he started testing again.

There is no evidence of a tie-in there, but it's possible.

Seems like the most recent change is the US and South Korea resuming joint military exercises.

Exactly. He interprets those exercises as a threat so he rattles his saber in response.

[Stoic]

I'll agree with that to some degree, he wasn't feeling threatened so he quieted down.

He quieted down while he was negotiating with Trump to get relief from sanctions. When he couldn't get that, he started testing again.

So, what has changed?

Seems like the most recent change is the US and South Korea resuming joint military exercises.

[shunyadragon]

That cannot be confirmed but we do know he stopped testing them.

No nuke tests. No missile launches over South Korea, or Japan, or toward Guam.

The recent tests by North Korea showed a significant jump in technology, which takes time to develop even copying technology from China and the West. North Korea has never changed their goals.

[Ronson]

Probably because rattling his saber got him the results he wanted.

I'll agree with that to some degree, he wasn't feeling threatened so he quieted down. So, what has changed?

[Stoic]

Part of the reason for the Kim missile tests is to rattle his saber, not to actually test his missiles. South Korea and the US hold a joint naval exercise? Kim responds by firing off a missile - and he even declares that's why he does it. So in contrast, when he goes quiet for a long period of time, one can assume he is not rattling his saber.

Probably because rattling his saber got him the results he wanted.

[shunyadragon]

As opposed to public threats to destroy his country wouldn't cause him to develop his military?

No more than the long range plan of North Korea, which has never changed.

The reason Kim gave for the missiles fired is his objections to the joint military exercises with the USA which have taken place for more than fifty years.

[Ronson]

It sounds like you're saying that the tests they ran in 2017 were successful, so they didn't need any more tests for a few years.

Part of the reason for the Kim missile tests is to rattle his saber, not to actually test his missiles. South Korea and the US hold a joint naval exercise? Kim responds by firing off a missile - and he even declares that's why he does it. So in contrast, when he goes quiet for a long period of time, one can assume he is not rattling his saber.

[Stoic]

For nukes it was less than 2016 and the same conducted in 2006, 2009 and 2013.

It was a big year for missile tests, nothing like this year which still isn't over, but it was also well before Kim Jong-u and Trump signed an agreement in 2018 or met the next year. In 2018 no missiles of any sort were tested and in 2019 only some shortrange missiles.

Moreover, it appears that many of those missiles tested in 2017 were from backlogged tests since in the previous couple of years their launches kept resulting in failures. Once they fixed the problem they wanted to make sure it worked on their new intermediate and long range missiles (their last successful launch of anything but a short rang missile was in early 2014).

It sounds like you're saying that the tests they ran in 2017 were successful, so they didn't need any more tests for a few years.

[rogue06]

Let me know of a year before 2017 where he did as many tests as he did in 2017.

For nukes it was less than 2016 and the same conducted in 2006, 2009 and 2013.

It was a big year for missile tests, nothing like this year which still isn't over, but it was also well before Kim Jong-u and Trump signed an agreement in 2018 or met the next year. In 2018 no missiles of any sort were tested and in 2019 only some shortrange missiles.

Moreover, it appears that many of those missiles tested in 2017 were from backlogged tests since in the previous couple of years their launches kept resulting in failures. Once they fixed the problem they wanted to make sure it worked on their new intermediate and long range missiles (their last successful launch of anything but a short rang missile was in early 2014).

[Stoic]

Let me know of any other year and a half break where he wasn't testing a nuke or launching a missile.

Let me know of a year before 2017 where he did as many tests as he did in 2017.

[rogue06]

After all the missiles he launched in 2017, a year and a half break didn't mean much.

Let me know of any other year and a half break where he wasn't testing a nuke or launching a missile.

[Stoic]

And the only known break since Kim Jong-un lasting more than a couple months just happened to be during and after talks with Trump.

After all the missiles he launched in 2017, a year and a half break didn't mean much.

[rogue06]

Yeah, when developing weapons, you don't necessarily test them continuously. You run a few tests, then take some time to analyze the data, make changes to the design (or create a new design from scratch), manufacture some new test weapons, and then run more tests. The fact that North Korea went a few years without conducting any tests (that we know about) isn't really special.

And the only known break since Kim Jong-un lasting more than a couple months just happened to be during and after talks with Trump.

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