Yeah it's September 11th. So what?

[Thoughtful Monk]

That seems to be the plan at this moment but I doubt they get very far with it. China's Belt and Road Debt Trap Express is about to become a fiasco and it will be lucky if a bad recession is all that happens with their economy. If Russia survives, they want that market and will be building pipelines. If not, cheap oil from whatever eastern provinces remain will be too good to pass up for China.

Assuming China isn't deindustrializing by then - rumor has it their real debt is in the 8 trillion range and the yuan ain't a reserve currency.

You do realize how badly the world economy is going to suffer if China goes into a major economic decline.

[NorrinRadd]

You do realize how badly the world economy is going to suffer if China goes into a major economic decline.

Everyone losing may be better than China winning.

[Thoughtful Monk]

Everyone losing may be better than China winning.

True. Unfortunately, it may not be just economic pain. Totalitarian regimes have a tendency to attack outsiders to distract their populace from internal issues. I think the world is going into a more violent phase for a while.

[rogue06]

That seems to be the plan at this moment but I doubt they get very far with it. China's Belt and Road Debt Trap Express is about to become a fiasco and it will be lucky if a bad recession is all that happens with their economy. If Russia survives, they want that market and will be building pipelines. If not, cheap oil from whatever eastern provinces remain will be too good to pass up for China.

Assuming China isn't deindustrializing by then - rumor has it their real debt is in the 8 trillion range and the yuan ain't a reserve currency.

One issue facing China that nobody is talking about is the same one much of Europe and Japan is facing is an aging population, but with China it might be worse. In 1982 roughly 4.9% were 65 years old and older with that number reaching 10.8% by 2018, and life expectancy rose sharply during those years. Since then it has likely gone up unless there was a substantial Covid culling.

Moreover, China's pension system is grossly inadequate with statistics showing that they cover only 25% of what it costs to live. Typically family picked up the slack but now with most of the elderly only having one child (thanks to the one child policy) who is being forced to be the primary provider for his parents -- and possibly in-laws.

Further an aging population is likely to shift economic expenditures towards more costly medical consumption -- the costs of which have skyrocketed in recent decades.

Bluntly, given China's recent extermination policies that killed tens of millions in the middle of the last century, I will not be surprised if they start enacting eugenics programs limiting medical care to the elderly and just pulling the plug when they get sick.

[Teallaura]

You do realize how badly the world economy is going to suffer if China goes into a major economic decline.

It doesn't matter - China has made a disaster area that is going into recession and likely losing most of its export market to reshoring over the next decade. Mexico and Viet Nam are already benefiting. The question isn't 'will China decline' it's 'how severely will China decline'.

The rest of the world will survive. In my opinion, it will come out better as China is more trouble than it's worth as long as the CCP continues to exist.

[Teallaura]

True. Unfortunately, it may not be just economic pain. Totalitarian regimes have a tendency to attack outsiders to distract their populace from internal issues. I think the world is going into a more violent phase for a while.

I think we've seen about the extent of Russia's capability - it's about to be in a world of hurt as a number of satellite states are becoming belligerent. Syria may just find itself all alone with Israel breathing down its neck.

China can't attack Taiwan or it would have by now. If it had any delusions about it, they died with the Ukrainian offensive. Russia bet on its artillery and China is probably wondering just how good its bet on missiles really is. Hint: not good enough. The US doesn't need to invade China to cripple it - China is beyond the pale dependent on imports and the US can block all three major bottlenecks without even breaking a sweat and China couldn't do diddly.

Lots of ships doesn't help if they have only a 1000 nm combat effective range.

Which is better than Russia and its Triple A dependent aircraft carrier, I suppose.

[Teallaura]

One issue facing China that nobody is talking about is the same one much of Europe and Japan is facing is an aging population, but with China it might be worse. In 1982 roughly 4.9% were 65 years old and older with that number reaching 10.8% by 2018, and life expectancy rose sharply during those years. Since then it has likely gone up unless there was a substantial Covid culling.

Moreover, China's pension system is grossly inadequate with statistics showing that they cover only 25% of what it costs to live. Typically family picked up the slack but now with most of the elderly only having one child (thanks to the one child policy) who is being forced to be the primary provider for his parents -- and possibly in-laws.

Further an aging population is likely to shift economic expenditures towards more costly medical consumption -- the costs of which have skyrocketed in recent decades.

Bluntly, given China's recent extermination policies that killed tens of millions in the middle of the last century, I will not be surprised if they start enacting eugenics programs limiting medical care to the elderly and just pulling the plug when they get sick.

It's worse than that - they released updated census figures showing a massive overcount of their youth - and a LOT of that overcount is female. Even if the kid wants to get married, there won't be enough women.

Gee, I wonder who commits suicide most under lockdowns?

China is already starving its people indiscriminately. with the lockdowns. It's destroyed its economy. China's only real hope right now is that the CCP eats itself - which I'd give a 50/50 shot at the moment. Second up is a war on Taiwan. The US will shut their economy down hard. The CCP doesn't survive that - even thugs have to be paid.

[Gondwanaland]

You do realize how badly the world economy is going to suffer if China goes into a major economic decline.

China is currently railroading itself toward a major economic decline all of its own making with the current Zero Covid policies it is clinging to.

[Thoughtful Monk]

China is currently railroading itself toward a major economic decline all of its own making with the current Zero Covid policies it is clinging to.

I have read that and believe it to be accurate. I don't know what the impact of China, which is a large economy, will have on the world economy. The answer is not "none".

[rogue06]

I think we've seen about the extent of Russia's capability - it's about to be in a world of hurt as a number of satellite states are becoming belligerent. Syria may just find itself all alone with Israel breathing down its neck.

China can't attack Taiwan or it would have by now. If it had any delusions about it, they died with the Ukrainian offensive. Russia bet on its artillery and China is probably wondering just how good its bet on missiles really is. Hint: not good enough. The US doesn't need to invade China to cripple it - China is beyond the pale dependent on imports and the US can block all three major bottlenecks without even breaking a sweat and China couldn't do diddly.

Lots of ships doesn't help if they have only a 1000 nm combat effective range.

Which is better than Russia and its Triple A dependent aircraft carrier, I suppose.

Given how the Chicoms can systematically murder tens of millions of their own people, it doesn't look like they care much about how much they will suffer if they think they will come out on top in the end.

[Teallaura]

Given how the Chicoms can systematically murder tens of millions of their own people, it doesn't look like they care much about how much they will suffer if they think they will come out on top in the end.

Yeah, but that only works if you can deliver to the people who actually do the work. Their expectations are much higher than in previous decades and the CCP's ability to keep itself together is now in question.

[rogue06]

Yeah, but that only works if you can deliver to the people who actually do the work. Their expectations are much higher than in previous decades and the CCP's ability to keep itself together is now in question.

If they can keep the military loyal...

[Teallaura]

If they can keep the military loyal...

That takes money too. The CCP is hemorrhaging all over the place. Yes, it has reserves but bank bailouts, loan defaults, IMF pressure for transparency (likely to result in more defaults), C19 testing at insane levels, real estate 'bailouts' (this will take various forms), flatlining exports, insane food imports, insane oil imports (yes, it's cheap but your factories aren't using it up), and loss of revenue from local governments all combine to strain the daylights out of the CCP's available coffers. Russia has reserves, too, and their active duty military are comp0laining about not being paid.

China tosses billions at the military but a large amount of that is siphoned off by graft. it's better than Russia but so is Uganda so that may or may not mean much. All that fancy new equipment is expensive - and the CCP wants its shiny new carriers more than it wants to issue pay raises. This is not a good place to be if you want your military all happy and willing to back you no matter what.

[Cow Poke]

One issue facing China that nobody is talking about is the same one much of Europe and Japan is facing is an aging population, but with China it might be worse. In 1982 roughly 4.9% were 65 years old and older with that number reaching 10.8% by 2018, and life expectancy rose sharply during those years. Since then it has likely gone up unless there was a substantial Covid culling.

Moreover, China's pension system is grossly inadequate with statistics showing that they cover only 25% of what it costs to live. Typically family picked up the slack but now with most of the elderly only having one child (thanks to the one child policy) who is being forced to be the primary provider for his parents -- and possibly in-laws.

Further an aging population is likely to shift economic expenditures towards more costly medical consumption -- the costs of which have skyrocketed in recent decades.

Bluntly, given China's recent extermination policies that killed tens of millions in the middle of the last century, I will not be surprised if they start enacting eugenics programs limiting medical care to the elderly and just pulling the plug when they get sick.

Yet more examples of unintended consequences coming back to bite one mightily in the six.