Great New AronRa video, Evolution is a fact

[JonF]

Yes, but they can not predict individual outcomes.

Yes, I said that. No need to repeat what I said.

They do not know what hand I will draw, that is chance, just as it was chance the way we turned out.

Nope. Just as they don't know which hand you will draw, we don't know what will happen to any one organism. But they know very well what will happen when ten thousand hands are drawn. Just as the not-only-chance process of evolution is not purely random for tens of thousand of organisms or species. We can't predict what will happen in evolution because it's too complicated, but we do know that it's non-random in exactly the same manner as a casino's profit is non-random.

[JonF]

Ok, what is the "not chance" part?

Planning. Emergence.

What did the planning?

Did you plan where you live or did you roll dice to choose?

No, I made an intelligent choice.

There's your answer. But intelligence is not required for choices.

[Roy]

Yes, but they can not predict individual outcomes. They do not know what hand I will draw, that is chance, just as it was chance the way we turned out.

Poor seer. Looks like the entire fields of probability and statistics simply passed him by. That might explain why he thinks the fate of an entire species over tens of millions of years of mutation, breeding and natural selection is statistically comparable to a single hand of poker.

Roy

[seer]

Yes, I said that. No need to repeat what I said.


Nope. Just as they don't know which hand you will draw, we don't know what will happen to any one organism. But they know very well what will happen when ten thousand hands are drawn. Just as the not-only-chance process of evolution is not purely random for tens of thousand of organisms or species. We can't predict what will happen in evolution because it's too complicated, but we do know that it's non-random in exactly the same manner as a casino's profit is non-random.

But I have been speaking of specific outcomes (specific hands, the way we turned out) and nothing else. So we agree that specific outcomes are random.

[JonF]

Outcomes for specific organisms are unpredictable. Outcomes for species are not. The way we turned out is an outcome for a species.

I.e. an outcome for a species is analogous to tens of thousands of poker hands, and the outcome for an individual is analogous to one poker hand.

[seer]

Outcomes for specific organisms are unpredictable. Outcomes for species are not. The way we turned out is an outcome for a species.

So we had to turn out this way? And we had to survive as a species?

[phank]

Here we go again. Selection is pure chance, because no selection HAD to be what it was! The stupid is getting boring.

[seer]

Here we go again. Selection is pure chance, because no selection HAD to be what it was! The stupid is getting boring.

No, I said the outcomes were chance, even with selection. There are just to many environmental variabilities for the outcomes not to be chance driven.

[HMS_Beagle]

No, I said the outcomes were chance, even with selection. There are just to many environmental variabilities for the outcomes not to be chance driven.

I guess this goober could be both stupid and trolling. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

[shunyadragon]

Here we go again. Selection is pure chance, because no selection HAD to be what it was! The stupid is getting boring.

Yes, your line of meaningless reasoning is getting boring.

[phank]

Yes, your line of meaningless reasoning is getting boring.

Tired of complaining that seer is ignoring you?

[JonF]

No.

[seer]

No.

So we got lucky, thanks...

[JonF]

Lucky and more that isn't luck.

[phank]

So we got lucky, thanks...

And after about 200 efforts to explain, seer repeats his initial foregone conclusion and is satisfied. This is your brain on religion.